2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Lottery Rankings, League Pass Stay-Aways, and First Coach to be Fired

There's been too much positive energy around here at ThePicknPopcast.blogspot.com.  Let's get negative. Let's get dark. Just kidding. In all seriousness, last night's Julius Randle injury (my ROY pick down already) slapped all of us NBA addicts across the face with a dose of reality. Things aren't all rainbows (I added 15 pounds of muscle in the off-season...Legally, I swear.) and butterflies (I can shoot three's now!) people.  

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Future Bets

First of all, let me admit that I am probably a horrible gambler, and the reason I’m writing this post is because the last $10 in my SportsBetting.ag account is tied up in NFL future bets. If I suddenly stop writing about NBA lines or gambling again after the NFL season ends in late-December, that will probably mean that I’ve won my ‘over’ bets on the Chargers (8 wins) and the Patriots (11), and you should be happy for me.

Since I can’t yet bet on these preseason props, I’ll write about them instead. All bets are found in the ‘Future Props’ section on www.sportsbetting.ag, as are the odds and payouts, and these are wagers I would be making if I had the funds with which to make them. This method is much cheaper. I hope to make this a regular feature on the blog, and as always, feedback and counter-arguments are appreciated.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: MVP, All-NBA, and Playoff Predictions

Image via sportswol.com

Here we are.  NBA Day.  It's been a long few months and yet with the NBA Finals finishing in June, then the Draft, off-season, NBA Summer League, and even a bonus FIBA World Cup tournament, we've barely been without basketball.  Today is the day though.  It's the instant all that speculation and all those predictions become almost immediately invalidated.  That's alright though.  Starting tonight, there will always be a fresh batch of basketball games to talk about.  New information to help inform us.  Our studies begin tonight.

Episode 042 - Title Contending Teams and MVP/Playoff Picks

In the final podcast before the start of the 2014-15 NBA season, Chris and Paul finish up their season previews by discussing their five title contenders. They finish by breaking down each conference's playoff teams and possible MVP candidates, but also cover the value of the mid-range jump shot, Byron Scott's disdain for 3's and analytics, and if the Milwaukee Bucks can scrap the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs will enter the 2014-15 season as the defending champions and deepest team in the league, with as great an opportunity as any in their franchise’s history to repeat as champions. Their entire team from last year was retained by general manager R.C. Buford this offseason, plus draft pick Kyle Anderson with the last pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, giving the Spurs a solid 13 or so players on the roster (depending on how you feel about Jeff Ayres or Austin Daye). Head coach Gregg Popovich will again attempt to limit his players’ minutes to under 30 per game to utilize his depth and keep his starters healthy for the playoffs, as three bench players last season averaged double figures in points per game. Tim Duncan, future Hall of Famer and one of the greatest players in the game’s history, will return for his 17^th season, joining fellow-future Hall of Famers Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Popovich. As in last years’ playoffs with the San Antonio Spurs, though, their upside as a team and title favorite lie with their fourth-year small forward, Kawhi Leonard.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: The Chicago Bulls

AP Photo/Paul Beaty

I wanted to find an article to start this piece that would capture the general conclusion that is accepted by most knowledgeable NBA fans:  The Bulls owner, Jerry Reinsdorf is Cheap.  When I went looking for that article I was lost in a sea of criticism and could not find the story that captured the mindset perfectly.  Instead I drowned, because there are just too many examples of Reinsdorf not wanting to spend the extra money in any and all circumstances.  From rumors of not wanting to pay Michael Jordan (!), to the half-hearted swings and ‘misses’ in recent free agency talks (LeBron, then Carmelo), to not wanting to re-sign Luol Deng and dumping him during the season for nothing, to the Bulls reportedly being the most profitable NBA franchise consistently over the last ten years (sure it’s a great market, but it’s obvious Chicago controls it’s costs).  There’s just so much.  

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

photo found at www.grantland.com

In retrospect, the 2013-14 season of the Oklahoma City Thunder came down to Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. The San Antonio Spurs quickly gained the 2-0 advantage after the first two games in Texas, but the return of Serge Ibaka allowed the Thunder defense to even up the series before heading back to San Antonio for the pivotal fifth game. Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich substituted shooter Matt Bonner into the starting lineup in place of center Tiago Splitter, and it was the overall depth of the Spurs and the 55-26 disparity in bench scoring that cost the Thunder the game. A five-point loss in overtime of Game 6 sealed their season, and general manager Sam Presti’s approach to building the 2014-15 team began with addressing the roster’s depth and bench issues in the offseason.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Los Angeles Clippers

Credit:  Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images

Although the majority of it has been unpleasant, the Clippers have quite a lot of history. After the events of this past season though, it's history they're trying to avoid.  There’s no use re-hashing that experience though.  The Clippers are ready to move forward, to transition, and they might have the perfect person to lead them through it: Doc Rivers. Doc was a stabilizing influence throughout the organization in the transition after the Sterling debacle.  That's half the reason why Doc Rivers is my Coach of the Year this season. The other half?  Well, this Clippers team is going to be really good.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love
(Lisa DeJong/The Cleveland Plain Dealer)

It’s still weeks before the start of the regular season and the very concept of the Cleveland Cavaliers as a super team with serious championship aspirations is still a little strange. The franchise has had its moments of futility throughout its 44-year history, but also NBA and Conference Finals appearances over the last ten years. LeBron James may be the constant to their periods of contention, but the composition, and potential upside, of the team around him is vastly different than those veteran-laden teams of the mid-to-late ‘aughts.

Episode 041 - Big Man Week

Chris and Paul try their first Skype conversation and finish up the third week of their 2014-15 NBA Preview by discussing the bigs they wrote about (Anthony Davis, LaMarcus Aldridge, Serge Ibaka, Marc Gasol, Carmelo Anthony), their teams entering the season, and the bigs who didn't make the cut (Dirk Nowitzki, DeMarcus Cousins, and Al Horford), plus some predictions for the NBA's Defensive Player and Coach of the Year Awards.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Defensive Player and Coach of the Year Predictions

We're officially past the half-way point of our 2014-15 NBA Season Preview, after the conclusion of our Big Man Week. The season is almost underway. Thank you for sticking with us here on the blog and consuming our content.

In this third week of our preview series, Chris and I wanted to pay homage to the dominant bigs in the league by profiling their games and the context within their franchises. Chris covered the new-age big men in today's NBA; starting with Monday's examination of Anthony "The Unibrow" Davis and his unfair treatment by the NBA's marketing and television departments, transitioning to Serge Ibaka's unmistakable influence on a top-tier defense in Oklahoma City, and today with a look at Carmelo Anthony's evolution into being eligible for this list and his embracing of his inner-(stretch) big man. I stuck to the more traditional mold of bigs when choosing Marc Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge, which gave me an insight into team-building and how to potentially retain the greatest player in a franchise's history (hint: become good). Apologies to Dirk Nowitzki, DeMarcus "Boogie" Cousins, Al Horford, et al, but, just like last week when we tackled two-guards, five choices aren't nearly enough. 

As we've done at the end of every one of our themed-weeks so far this preseason, we've provided some predictions for the NBA end of year awards, with the Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year Awards most closely associated with, and largely dependent-upon, the impact of the big men. The last non-center or power forward to win the Defensive MVP was in 2003-04 - back when Metta World Peace was called Ron Artest - and the Coach of the Year trophy is usually influenced by team defense, which is usually influenced by bigs. It's no coincidence that every coach on our COY-ballots feature strong players in the front-court. 

Chris and I have tried to break up some of the monotony with these lists and "ballots" that hold absolutely no influence on the actual results at the end of the 2014-15 season. We usually save our thoughts and reasoning behind the picks for the podcast, but this weeks' podcast will be delayed a day, so we supplied some notes and different looks at our predictions. There's probably no chance that a rookie, for instance, will factor into the discussion for Defensive Player of the Year this season but awards voting is usually so boring and narrative-driven that we had to attempt to have fun with it.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Carmelo Anthony

Credit:  Rich Barnes/Getty Images

What position is Carmelo Anthony?  Is he more suited to the small forward position or the small ball four?  Is there even a difference?  Carmelo may have been one of the most dissected players of his generation.  His timing was poor.  Not only did he come into the NBA at a time when ‘sports writing’ was under a major metamorphosis, he did so in the same draft class as the greatest player of our generation.  He’s come to represent the anti-superstar to a new wave of basketball fans (and media, the line is blurred sometimes) informed by efficiency and versatility as Paul Flannery so eloquently stated.  In a way, Carmelo is right, he is underrated.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Marc Gasol

Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph
(photo credit not found)

Marc Gasol has single-handedly validated the Pau Gasol trade for the Memphis Grizzlies. Never have two brothers been traded for each other in NBA history, and rarely have the draft rights to second-round picks been the foundation of a trade for a franchise player before. The trade was decisively derided as the Grizzlies giving away talent to the big-market Los Angeles Lakers, as the other pieces to the trade were Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie, and two first round picks that each became the #28 picks in the 2008 and 2010 NBA Drafts. Marc Gasol, meanwhile, would return to his adopted-home in Memphis after his “college” years in his home country of Spain, and, six seasons later, will assuredly hit free agency next summer before re-signing with the Memphis Grizzlies. 

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Serge Ibaka

Credit:  Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images

Last season, the Oklahoma City Thunder were matched up against the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.  It was exactly the matchup we expected all season long.  The Spurs, however, did fall into some luck.  While OKC was enduring one of the most physical series of last year's playoffs against Memphis, the Spurs were matched up against the worst defense of all the playoff teams in the Dallas Mavericks.  Sure that series went 7 games, but I won’t accept the argument that the Thunder didn’t exert more energy, physically and mentally, to advance to the second round than the Spurs did.  

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: LaMarcus Aldridge

LaMarcus Aldridge & Damian Lillard
(Sam Forencich/Getty Images)

The preseason conversations concerning LaMarcus Aldridge’s impending 2015 free agency seem to be much quieter this year compared to last. Aldridge submitted his most successful season in 2013-14, setting career-highs in points and rebounds per game, but the success of the Portland Trail Blazers is probably the best indicator as to his future preferences next summer in free agency.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Anthony Davis

Original Artwork by Lynnmarie St. Jean

'With the proliferation of teams, regular-season coverage declined to the point where CBS was ignoring fully two-thirds of them; there were in effect two leagues -- one consisting of the twenty-two NBA member teams, the other a six- or seven-team league covered by CBS, it's version of the NBA.'

-- The Breaks of the Game by David Halberstam (page 14)

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Shooting Guard Week Wrap-Up & 6th Man of the Year/Most Improved Player Awards Picks

The second week of our 2014-15 NBA Season Preview attempted to cover some of the league's most interesting Shooting Guards, at a position that might be as healthy and stocked with talent as it's been at any point in recent league history. Over the course of the week, we covered players in various stages of development and different team contexts; from my piece on Bradley Beal from Monday, Chris's DeMar DeRozan discussion on Tuesday, Lance Stephenson's new situation in Charlotte Wednesday, Kobe Bryant's legend on Thursday, and Chris's Friday feature on Klay Thompson and his dramatic summer.

Chris and I explained our selection process a bit in this weeks' podcast, Episode 40, and addressed some of the players that didn't quite make our cut. As with last week, we wanted to begin establishing some predictions for the major end-of-year awards, but ones that tied into our Shooting Guard Week discussions. The Sixth Man of the Year Award, along with the Most Improved trophy, are largely dominated by guards over the last few years, so we'll cover those awards here and save the Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year Awards for next week and our Big Man Week. The discussion began on the podcast but we've narrowed down our predictions a bit, by further categorizing these awards.

Compared to the other, major NBA awards, the Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved distinctions are pretty dependent upon context and situation. Injuries, minutes, and shot attempts play a huge role in which players become favorites and receive the narrative bumps, as well as team win totals and preseason prejudices that impact every award. Chris and I have tried to differentiate between the candidates, from players still on rookie contracts to NBA veterans in new environments, to make this process a bit less nebulous and maybe more structured.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Klay Thompson

Credit: Getty Images

Klay Thompson has had quite the summer.  The debate was was alive over the course of last season, but this off-season, Thompson may have become the most divisive player among NBA circles. Klay was involved in the trade rumors that were swirling with Kevin Love and when Golden State was so public about the fact that they would not include Klay in a possible deal, that poured gasoline on the fire.  A certain subset of Warriors fans, lets call them Klay loyalists, became Klay’s unofficial PR team, and other parts of the NBA discourse community were glad to debate with them.

Episode 040 - Shooting Guard Week and 6th Man of the Year & Most Improved Player Picks

In episode 40, Chris and Paul conclude the Shooting Guard Week of their 2014-15 NBA Preview, discussing their essays, and the teams, of Bradley Beal, DeMar DeRozan, Lance Stephenson, Kobe Bryant, and Klay Thompson - plus the players who didn't make the cut: James Harden, Arron Afflalo, Joe Johnson, and Dwyane Wade. They finish by throwing out some names and predictions for the 2015 Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved Player Awards.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Kobe

John Bazemore/AP

It’s impossible to discuss Kobe Bryant without intangibles dominating the conversation. As with any player of his stature and cultural significance, particularly in professional sports, his identity becomes indistinguishable from his legend, with the mythology often overshadowing the actual performance (see: Jeter, Derek). It can be reductive; when the idolatry distracts from the reality, and our over-reliance on the un-provable prevents us from appreciating the unique talent that originally inspired the legend (see: Chappelle, David). And sometimes, it can be apt, and the seemingly-empty phrases somehow make sense, touching on the unknown (see: Bryant, Kobe “Bean”).