We're officially past the half-way point of our 2014-15 NBA Season Preview, after the conclusion of our Big Man Week. The season is almost underway. Thank you for sticking with us here on the blog and consuming our content.
In this third week of our preview series, Chris and I wanted to pay homage to the dominant bigs in the league by profiling their games and the context within their franchises. Chris covered the new-age big men in today's NBA; starting with Monday's examination of Anthony "The Unibrow" Davis and his unfair treatment by the NBA's marketing and television departments, transitioning to Serge Ibaka's unmistakable influence on a top-tier defense in Oklahoma City, and today with a look at Carmelo Anthony's evolution into being eligible for this list and his embracing of his inner-(stretch) big man. I stuck to the more traditional mold of bigs when choosing Marc Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge, which gave me an insight into team-building and how to potentially retain the greatest player in a franchise's history (hint: become good). Apologies to Dirk Nowitzki, DeMarcus "Boogie" Cousins, Al Horford, et al, but, just like last week when we tackled two-guards, five choices aren't nearly enough.
As we've done at the end of every one of our themed-weeks so far this preseason, we've provided some predictions for the NBA end of year awards, with the Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year Awards most closely associated with, and largely dependent-upon, the impact of the big men. The last non-center or power forward to win the Defensive MVP was in 2003-04 - back when Metta World Peace was called Ron Artest - and the Coach of the Year trophy is usually influenced by team defense, which is usually influenced by bigs. It's no coincidence that every coach on our COY-ballots feature strong players in the front-court.
Chris and I have tried to break up some of the monotony with these lists and "ballots" that hold absolutely no influence on the actual results at the end of the 2014-15 season. We usually save our thoughts and reasoning behind the picks for the podcast, but this weeks' podcast will be delayed a day, so we supplied some notes and different looks at our predictions. There's probably no chance that a rookie, for instance, will factor into the discussion for Defensive Player of the Year this season but awards voting is usually so boring and narrative-driven that we had to attempt to have fun with it.
Paul’s Ballot for Defensive Player of the Year:
- Serge Ibaka
- Marc Gasol
- Roy Hibbert
- Joakim Noah
- Andrew Bogut
There’s almost no chance Serge doesn’t take the hardware this season, after his tangible impact on the Oklahoma City defense in the San Antonio Spurs series. The Thunder were unable to stop the Spurs offense in the first two games until Serge came back from injury and completely changed the competition level of the series. Marc Gasol’s Memphis Grizzlies will be back to a top-5 unit, assuming health, and Roy Hibbert is too good as the Pacers’ defensive fulcrum to slip much from his runner-up finish last year. Noah has more help this season and should have votes split between Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler. Keep Bogut healthy and his selection at #5 could look light, in retrospect.
Paul's Perimeter Defenders Who Should Win:
- Tony Allen
- Andre Iguodala
- Jimmy Butler
- John Wall
- Avery Bradley
Can we get a perimeter stopper to win this award already? Ron Artest’s victory was over 10 years ago! If Gordon Hayward and Chandler Parsons are worth max contracts and the wing position/shooting is so critical to offensive success, then we should probably have that same conversation about the impact of their defenders. Tony Allen and Iggy could have won in any of the last three seasons, but they’re obviously too short and play the wrong position. Jimmy Butler and Avery Bradley are already two of the best pressure and on-ball defenders in the game, and John Wall captains a top-ten defense and feeds off of forcing turnovers.
Paul's All-Rookie Defensive Team:
- Nerlens Noel
- Andrew Wiggins
- Marcus Smart
- Aaron Gordon
- Gary Harris
Chris and I have already covered our rookie award picks, but this crop of freshmen contain some stand-out defensive talents. The first four names on my list should be impact defenders in the NBA immediately, and Harris, along with players like Elfrid Payton, Jerami Grant, Jarnell Stokes, Clint Capela, and K.J. McDaniels, are all natural defenders whose impact will depend upon minutes.
Chris’s Defensive Player of the Year Ballot:
- Roy Hibbert
- Andrew Bogut
- Avery Bradley
- Taj Gibson
I agree with Mitchell that the Defensive Player of the Year award is insanely skewed towards big men, but I didn’t separate my list, mostly to highlight how much I want to advocate for Avery Bradley. I documented my reasoning for Serge Ibaka. Without Lance and Paul George, when Indiana is still the best defensive team in the league, Hibbert will get the credit. Bogut is the anchor defensively for Golden State and if they don’t slip too far under Kerr’s system, I could see him getting some credit. The Bradley - Smart back-court is going to make life miserable for point guards across the league, and seeing how more polished Bradley is compared to Smart (who is obviously an excellent ball defender) will highlight how good he really is. I left Noah off and put Gibson on because I’m very concerned about Noah (and Gasol) staying healthy. When Gibson is the constant in a great Bulls defense, he’ll get some recognition.
Paul’s ballot for Coach of the Year:
- Rick Carlisle
- Gregg Popovich
- Steve Clifford
- Brian Shaw
- David Blatt
This is notoriously a “surpassed low preseason expectations” award, as Terry Stotts and Jeff Hornacek were leading contenders for much of last season. Rick Carlisle is the most underrated head coach in the game and is right on Pop’s (and Doc Rivers’s) level as far as ability to relate to players, coach them up, and achieve results. If he can turn this Dallas Mavericks roster into an adequate defensive team, I’d recommend naming this award after him (sorry, Red Auerbach and Pop!). Pop is the greatest, and Clifford transformed the Charlotte Bobcats into an elite defensive team (with Al Jefferson and Josh McBob as the starting frontcourt!). Increased expectations with the Hornets could increase his visibility among national writers. I’m projecting a bit with Shaw and Blatt, but Blatt’s reputation is already stellar, given his international resume, and he has plenty of talent to scheme with and turn into an average defense. Brian Shaw only finished 10 games under .500 with a depleted Nuggets roster last year and gave the team some tough love. This year he has depth, and he’ll open up his playbook more.
Chris’s ballot for Coach of the Year:
- Doc Rivers
- Rick Carlisle
- Dwane Casey
- Gregg Popovich
- Erik Spoelstra
If they gave the Coach of the Playoffs award out it would have been Doc for what he did for the Clippers during the Sterling saga. I think that gives him a head start and I think the Clippers could grab 60 wins and the 1 seed in the West. If Dallas is in the mix for a top 4 seed in the West Carlisle will continue to get more love. If he can make any sense of the point guard situation in Dallas he deserves it. I like Toronto to continue to build off last season (top 10 in Offensive and Defensive Rating) and top 50 wins. The Spurs will be fine, Kawhi will progress, and it’s impossible to take Popovich off this list. When Miami is better than people expect and is right in the playoff hunt, Spoelstra will get the credit. I wrote about this topic a bit further for Basketball-Society.com in our season preview series.
Thanks for sticking with us through the third week, Bigs Week, of our '14-15 NBA Preview. The podcast, Episode 41, will be up tomorrow, where we get into our essays and the team-aspects of our season preview. Next week we'll write about our five title-contending teams this season, as we come another week closer to the start of the 2014-15 season.
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