Showing posts with label Kevin Love. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kevin Love. Show all posts

Friday, March 13, 2015

The Give and Go: Third Options

Darryl Norenberg/Wire Image

The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.  

Paul: I’m fascinated by the concept of “Big 3’s”, in relation to the NBA. It’s not a new concept, as the phrase goes back at least to the Los Angeles Lakers teams from the ‘70’s - who added Wilt Chamberlain in trade to their core of Jerry West and Elgin Baylor - but as an NBA fan, post-Michael Jordan, it’s a phrase I hadn’t heard much of in contemporary circles until the Boston Celtics’ trades in 2007. Since then it’s been a trendy narrative device that’s been bastardized by mainstream media outlets, but there’s no denying that there are a greater concentration of star players in today’s NBA than ever before.

So let’s focus on the 3rd option in the 2015 version of the “Big 3”. What’s the ideal role of a 3rd option (on a good team)? Is it as simple as a team’s 3rd-leading scorer, or are their responsibilities more diverse? With that said, which is the best 3rd option in the NBA today?

Chris: Great question. The tidy narrative driven after the Spurs won their title last season was the victory of ‘The Team’ over the idea of ‘The Big 3’, but then less than two months later, LeBron goes to Cleveland, they trade for Kevin Love and the idea is reborn. That narrative will never go away, even if the Spurs won last season and a team like the Hawks succeed this year. As long as three talented players are on a roster together, someone will throw that term around, so I like your idea of embracing it and exploring our options here.

You pose great questions about how to define the 3rd option. To me, there is no definition and hopefully some of my favorite third options in the league can demonstrate what I mean:
  • Let’s pour some out for one of the most universally adored NBA third options the league has seen in a long time, Wesley Matthews. I wrote in a recent Give and Go that Portland was the team I would be most interested in watching down the stretch. to examine the question “Can they win the title?” That went up in smoke when Matthews went down. Not to mention the amount of money it will cost him.   
  • With Memphis, it’s hard to determine a hierarchy between Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, and Zach Randolph, and players like Courtney Lee, Tony Allen, and Jeff Green are important to what they do. But I’d be hard-pressed to find a more talented trio on any NBA roster out there. Given Marc Gasol’s MVP discussion-worthy start, and Mike Conley officially ‘shedding’ the underrated tag, I think of Randolph as the third banana in this scenario now. And that’s pretty fucking insane to be averaging 16 and 11 as the third banana.
  • Tony Parker is the engine that drives the Spurs’ offense. As we’ve seen for much of this season, when he’s not playing well, the Spurs don’t play well. Tim Duncan, at the advanced age of 63 is a defensive player of the year candidate and is the foundation upon which the Spurs’ defense is built. To my mind, that makes Kawhi Leonard the third option on a championship-level team. Kawhi can do anything on the basketball floor, but if you removed either Tony or Timmy right now, the burden of carrying one side of the ball might be too much for him.   
  • To your point about the 3rd option being the third-leading scorer, that’s certainly not the case for the Clippers. Crawford and Reddick would be candidates based on scoring, but without a doubt the third most important player on that roster is DeAndre Jordan. He’s been a monster since Blake went down and his shot chart is a testament to the ultimate role player. He knows exactly what his teams asks of him, and that’s what he gives them.
  • Josh Smith is obviously the third-most important player to this Houston … just kidding. I wanted to make sure you were still paying attention, Mitchell.

If that tells me anything it’s that there is no way to define the 3rd option beyond the third-most important player to a good team. And even that implies you need to rank the top three hierarchically that diminishes the cohesion of a team like Memphis or Atlanta or even Golden State.

I blame NBA Jam for this. To most in our age group, NBA Jam can do no wrong, I know. But they boiled down an NBA roster to three players and you can play as any two-man combination of those three players. It’s probably half the reason I fell in love with the Muggsy Bogues, Alonzo Mourning, Larry Johnson trio. Actually, I take that back, it’s not even close to 20% of the reason I fell in love with that team.  

So what are your thoughts, Mitchell? How do you define a third option and who is your favorite in this NBA season?



Mitchell: As is true with any question in life, really, NBA Jam makes a perfect metaphor. I am also guilty of picking the Charlotte Hornets every single time, unless it was the console version that had replaced Muggsy with Kendall Gill and removed Reggie Lewis. Now whether I was influenced by the outsized personalities and marketing campaigns of Muggsy Bogues and Larry “Grandmama” Johnson or by the pretty, baby blue jerseys of the fresh, new franchise I’m not sure, but even back in the days of arcades and quarters, I always appreciated the Hornets’ mix of speed, shooting, strength, shot blocking, and huge dunks.

Alonzo Mourning was a must-play. In a standard game, without fouls or hot spots, ‘Zo was a one-man wrecking crew, who would two-hand, novelty shove any offensive player who dared to enter the paint or elevate near his basket. From there I’d have to debate the merits and style of play of LJ or Muggsy to round out my starting duo, unless I felt adventurous and started two offensive players without a rim protector. It never worked out, and I would soon run out of quarters.

Defense matters, whether it’s NBA Jam or with third options on good teams. There’s no template or control in the experiment of how to build a title team, as every championship squad has been unique from each other, but there are certain trends that emerge in roster construction. The highest-paid player is often the team’s leading scorer (and leader in usage rate), with the second-highest next. Whether it’s unfair or not, I feel that the defensive burden then falls to the team’s third option, who also needs to consistently score in double-digits against playoff defenses.

Basically Chris Bosh, at least as far as recent examples from a really good team. Bosh took plenty of derision from fans and praise from coaches by the end of Miami’s four-consecutive Finals appearances, as a new-age big capable of stretching defenses as a catch-and-shoot player but who was also quick enough to cover the entire court. Sometimes it takes little moments, like grabbing the offensive rebound that led to one of the greatest shots in NBA history, to prove his value, or the long road trips where he’s leading the team in scoring when the team’s other options are out with injury.

So I guess flexibility too, along with defensive and offensive competence, or like you said, a good team’s third-best player. But that then gets into the concept of value and how to equate offense vs. defense, and I’m not ready to open that can of worms. Here are my top 5 third options, instead.
  1. Chris Bosh. This might officially be an insult now, after getting paid to be the post-LBJ The Man in Miami and carrying the team before injuries ruined his 2014-15 season, but Bosh has just about perfected his role as a floor-spacer and pick-and-roll blitzer, and I’m sure won’t mind conceding the ball to Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic.
  2. Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi began the 2014 Finals as the third or fourth option in the Spurs’ offense, but by series’ end was dominating with the ball as the Finals MVP. Tim Duncan has been the most consistent Spur and Tony Parker the most crucial to the team’s success, while Leonard provides them with another level of upside. It’s no coincidence that as he’s returned to the lineup this season the San Antonio Spurs have gotten hot.
  3. Serge Ibaka. Serge has always been underrated as a third option who clearly knows his limitations in playing with two of the league’s best players on a nightly basis. He’s extended his face-up game to the three-point line while doubling as the league’s second-leading shot blocker, and yet still leaves me wanting to see more from him as a player. If he never gets better he’s safe on this list due to his defensive impact, but if he ever adds a post game or desire to draw free throws, he’s a future Finals MVP.
  4. Draymond Green. This might be a stretch until he can prove it in this year’s playoffs. Draymond checks all of the boxes I need from my third options, besides maybe the consistent ability to get his own shot, but he locks in on the defensive end, provides spacing options from the power forward spot, and offers intangibles for days on the league’s most dominant team. Dude’s gonna get paid.
  5. Kevin Love. I’m going to cheat here and screw over Mike Conley or Wes Matthews or Paul Millsap/Jeff Teague in favor of criticizing Kevin Love. Love is a great example of the almost cruel irony in today’s NBA economics, where he became a star player on a rookie contract in a small market and never really had the coaching or veteran culture around him to flesh out the rest of his game (outside of his insane scoring and rebounding numbers). As a result his teams struggled and he asked out, and ended up in a situation that has the scoring and rebounding covered but needs Love to play defense and do the little things.  His tenure so far in Cleveland is really interesting, as he might even be a better player than the team’s second option in Kyrie Irving, but Love is the one eliciting the “James Jones and Mike Miller” comparisons this season. He’s an insanely skilled player that has yet to figure out how to pick his spots in a complementary role around LeBron James and Kyrie, but despite the tremendous talent gap, you have to wonder how the Cavs would look with Draymond Green as their third option over Love.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: MVP, All-NBA, and Playoff Predictions




Image via sportswol.com
Here we are.  NBA Day.  It's been a long few months and yet with the NBA Finals finishing in June, then the Draft, off-season, NBA Summer League, and even a bonus FIBA World Cup tournament, we've barely been without basketball.  Today is the day though.  It's the instant all that speculation and all those predictions become almost immediately invalidated.  That's alright though.  Starting tonight, there will always be a fresh batch of basketball games to talk about.  New information to help inform us.  Our studies begin tonight.

Monday, October 20, 2014

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love
(Lisa DeJong/The Cleveland Plain Dealer)

It’s still weeks before the start of the regular season and the very concept of the Cleveland Cavaliers as a super team with serious championship aspirations is still a little strange. The franchise has had its moments of futility throughout its 44-year history, but also NBA and Conference Finals appearances over the last ten years. LeBron James may be the constant to their periods of contention, but the composition, and potential upside, of the team around him is vastly different than those veteran-laden teams of the mid-to-late ‘aughts.

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Episode 032 - Free Agency


Chris and Paul delve into NBA free agency and the monumental LeBron James decision by discussing the moves so far this summer and the first week of summer league action.

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

# 19 - Chicago Bulls

 
Brian Spurlock - USAToday Sports

What I’d Do:

T. J. Warren
6’8” (6’10” wingspan), 220 lbs, 9/5/1993 (20 years old)

BRING BACK THE FLOATER

T. J. Warren won ACC Player of the Year over Jabari Parker by being one of 8 BCS players under the age of 21 to score over 27 PTS per 40.  This kid is an absolute scorer.  He scored at a rate of 1.27 PTS/possession (good for # 4 in Draft Express’ Top 100) and sported the # 2 PER in that group behind Doug McDermott.  

As I mentioned in the Celtics piece, he’ the type of player that can get 15-20 without having to run a play for him.  He scored 12% of his offense off of cuts in his sophomore season.  He’s an elite offensive rebounder for a SF scoring 11% (!) of his offense on put backs.  He is deadliest in transition, which he’s able to create on his own (2.1 steals per 40) and is a one man fast break in the best sense.  Because of his touch and finishing ability he’ll go one on three before dropping a beautiful 5 foot floater between outstretched defenders.  I love him as a can’t miss bench scorer.

What keeps him from going so much earlier are question marks about his defense ability and his outside shooting.  He’s not a great passer or decision maker, but who wants him passing when he scores at that rate?  Defensively, he has decent size and length, unfortunately his lateral quickness is a major concern (in fairness, he did post a decent number at the combine in the lane agility drill).  It’s assumed he will struggle with the quickness of many 3’s on the perimeter but is too small to realistically play power forward.   Chicago is a great fit in that regard, because you’ll theoretically be able to hide him a bit.  As I said though, he has the length and he has great hands and anticipation.  There is still defensive upside there.

As far as his shooting, who cares?  Are valuing outside shooting too much now?  This guy is going to score period.  From 18 feet in he is an absolute monster.  Also, there’s no reason to think he can’t develop the outside shot.  With some work with an NBA shooting coach, I’d be willing to bet that in three years T. J. Warren is shooting 36%+ from 3.  That’s acceptable, especially with that floater.  One of the things I love about Warren’s game is how unique he is.  There’s almost no comparison.  He’s like a cross between Jamal Crawford and Carl Landry.  He’s just going to score efficiently no matter how many minutes you give him and as we know, Chicago could use the offense.

Mitchell wrote about Chicago’s situation and what he’d do with their 16th pick.  As fast as Elfrid Payton’s rise has been, he may no longer be available at that spot.   If he is though, I absolutely love that pick (especially being proactive about Rose’s future), and I think going more offensive minded with this pick in Warren is a great pairing.  

What I Think They’ll Do:

The Bulls may have the best package to offer Minnesota including this and the # 16 pick with some combination of Mirotic, Butler, and Gibson.  I don’t think they actually get it done, but it’s definitely possible, and even if they don’t there’s no doubt they are out shopping these picks in other ways.  I’d be surprised if the Bulls keep both of these picks on draft night.  Assuming they do, I think they go with a wing player, depending on who is left.  James Young, Rodney Hood, T.J.Warren, any of them are options.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

Alright I’ve avoided discussing Kevin Love possibilities enough.  

# 16, # 19, Mirotic and Gibson for Kevin Love.  

Pairing Noah and Love in the backcourt would be unbelievable.  This might leave the Bulls a bit thin, but don’t start selling me on how Minnesota would take Carlos Boozer. Come on now.  You can still amnesty Boozer, but with Love’s salary and theoretical extension, the Bulls won’t have enough room left to go get another max player.  There will be some room though.  Maybe a Luol Deng reunion?  Or do you think you could convince Pierce to come join Rose/Butler/Love/Noah?  You could then fill out the rest of the roster with inexpensive shooting like Anthony Morrow, Channing Frye, or Spencer Hawes.

Minnesota fans are just sitting there waiting for their explanation.  At this point, there's no explanation necessary.  Just hope for the best.

Monday, June 23, 2014

#16 - Chicago Bulls


Joe Robbins/Getty Images North America


What I’d Do:

Elfrid Payton – LA Lafayette
6’4” (6’8” wingspan), 185 lbs., 02/22/1994 (20 years old)

Elfrid Payton is probably too good to still be on the board here at #16. At first I took him based on his value alone as the best player available for the Chicago Bulls but the more I think about it, the more this pick makes some sense beyond the value-aspect for the Bulls.

# 13 Minnesota Timberwolves

via Joe Bielawa on Flickr


What I'd Do:

Doug McDermott
6’8” (6’9.5” wingspan), 218 lbs, 1/03/1992 (22 years old)

Oh Minnesota.  Sometimes I forget how much Minnesota fans have had to go through.  They haven't had to endure long stretches of failure like the Clippers once did and the Kings are trying to escape now (I'm sorry Kings fans). But if you consider that the TWolves have squandered two talents of the caliber of Kevin Garnett and Kevin Love and have advanced past the first round one time in their history in 2003-04 when they luckily avoided both San Antonio and the Lakers in the second round.  That’s a total of 18 seasons where they had a transcendent talent and couldn’t construct a roster to support them (16 if you remove Garnett’s rookie season and Kevin Love’s injury season).  One time out of 18 this team had what you might consider a successful season based on what their expectations should have been.

Consider all of that, the fact that Minnesota fans were hoping to have the season that Phoenix, Dallas, or (gulp) Portland did this year.  There were no excuses this year.  The team seemed to have capped out, and that’s why I’m much higher on Kevin Love as a second banana rather than a leader.  That’s a whole different post though.  As much as I have questions about Love, I don’t put all the blame on him for this team continuing to underperform.  From Glen Taylor to David Kahn to now Flip Saunders, the front office of this team has been an #NBATwitter punchline since Kevin McHale gave the Boston Celtics banner 17.  Kevin Love must be sick of that, not to mention having his teammates question his effort and leadership ability (however justified it may have been, it shouldn’t have been handled publicly, and that’s on both Love and his teammates), and having to spend a winter in Minnesota.  

Just think about how awful that must be.  Take it from someone who lives in a cold weather city, cold and snowy winters are depressing.  If I didn’t have NBA basketball to watch, things would probably go badly for me, and Minnesota is way worse than Rhode Island.  The winter is colder, longer, darker, and has more snow.  Now it’s one thing to live in a cold weather city and complain about it.  Now imagine that every other weekend you get on a plane to Phoenix or LA/San Francisco or Miami or Atlanta or Houston.  You get just enough of a taste of warm weather to make you fully realize how awful the experience of 15 inches of snow in 4 degree weather really is.  If Kevin Love has any influence over where he’s getting traded to it is without a doubt a warm weather city.  Sorry Boston fans.  

Whether that trade gets done before the draft or not doesn’t affect the thirteenth pick for the TWolves much though.  They’re in full ‘best player available’ mode because any move could happen between now and next February.  At thirteen, they may be just out of range of finding an All-Star.

McDermott is a real wild card for me.  I can see a scenario where his lack of athleticism and size cause him to not have a position in the league at all.  On the other hand, he is not only one of the best shooters in this draft (and probably a candidate for one of the best shooters in the league immediately) but he was more than just a shooter in college.  He could score.  It’s just the way that he scored (beating up smaller guys in the post, and driving by bigger guys) doesn’t seem to translate to the NBA.  He isn’t big enough to punish an NBA-caliber 3 and he really isn’t quick enough to go by an NBA-4.  He couldn’t take Chris Bosh to the rim.  And imagine him trying that against the length of someone like Ibaka?  He’d need to get three or four steps by him to beat that length.  He was barely getting a step against college bigs.  And defensively, he’ll have no shot.

At best, McDermott is an elite bench scorer.  And that’s not to say that can’t happen.  Once again, he is one of the most prolific scorers in college basketball history and an excellent knock down shooter.  If Rubio is creating open corner three’s for this dude, look out.  He should be able to score and he may rebound a bit, but don’t ask him to create, for himself or other, or defend.  It’s just not going to happen.  At this point in the draft though, an elite bench scorer is not a bad building block.  Especially for a bench that couldn’t find a scorer last season.  The key will be getting McDermott open looks consistently.  If he doesn’t stick with Minnesota long term, don’t be surprised when he ends  up on the Spurs in four years scoring 14 ppg off the bench.

What I Think They’ll Do:

We all know all the Love rumors.  The C’s are willing to give up a boatload of draft picks including # 6 and # 17.  The Warriors are trying to dump David Lee and either Klay Thompson or the Lakes # 7 pick.  Phoenix and Denver and Cleveland and Chicago are all dark horses.  Honestly,  I don’t think they’re making a deal before the draft.  I don’t think any of those deals look all that great, and going into the season has almost no downside.  These trade offers are not going to get worse between now and February.  

I think they desperately need shooting.  If McDermott or Stauskas falls to them they’re taking him.  Otherwise, James Young could go here as well.

Crazy Draft Day Trade (Not Including Kevin Love):

Enough has been written about possible Kevin Love trade scenarios.  What if Minnesota commits to buying instead of selling, even without a guarantee from Love that he’ll stay.  Make his decision difficult.  This is a little crazy, even for our standards, but hear me out.  

Do you believe in Gorgui Dieng?  Dieng emerged as a possible solution at C late last season.  I love Pekovic, but the pairing of him and Love in the frontcourt doesn’t work.  They just don’t compliment each other well.  What if you roll the dice and deal Pekovic to New Orleans to take a chance at rejuvenating Eric Gordon?  

Here’s the deal:  Eric Gordon and Austin Rivers plus a lottery protected first or pair of seconds for Pekovic, Kevin Martin, and Shabazz Muhammad.  New Orleans gets a versatile and talented three man rotation at the 4 and 5 with Davis, Anderson, and Pekovic.  They have to take on Kevin Martin’s contract, but Martin might fit in better when the other pieces on that team.  At least he doesn’t need the ball in his hands as much as Gordon.

Minnesota is taking a risk with Gordon, I accept that, but if they hit and Gordon is similar to the player he was in 2010-11 for the Clippers it’s a nice pairing with Love.   If things don’t work out and Love leaves, Gordon will be a valuable $14 million expiring contract the season after.  Now’s the time when you remind me that Gordon has never played 82 games and will likely never play at that level again.  Hey, I told you it was crazy.

Saturday, June 21, 2014

Episode 030 - Crazy Thursday


Chris and Paul celebrate their 30th episode this year with a 3-man podcast with their friend, Jay Collard. They discuss the crazy Thursday that set off a bunch of NBA news, including more Kevin Love trade rumors and the untimely injury to Joel Embiid, for the first 30 minutes then finish up with the season finale to the fourth season of HBO's A Game of Thrones.