Episode 056 - Steve Nash's Retirement & The Race for the Seventh/Eighth Seeds

Chris and Paul discuss Steve Nash’s retirement for the first ten minutes of the podcast, and then break down the field for the Western and Eastern Conference’s last couple of playoff spots.

The Give and Go: Third Options

Darryl Norenberg/Wire Image

The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.

Paul: I’m fascinated by the concept of “Big 3’s”, in relation to the NBA. It’s not a new concept, as the phrase goes back at least to the Los Angeles Lakers teams from the ‘70’s - who added Wilt Chamberlain in trade to their core of Jerry West and Elgin Baylor - but as an NBA fan, post-Michael Jordan, it’s a phrase I hadn’t heard much of in contemporary circles until the Boston Celtics’ trades in 2007. Since then it’s been a trendy narrative device that’s been bastardized by mainstream media outlets, but there’s no denying that there are a greater concentration of star players in today’s NBA than ever before.

So let’s focus on the 3rd option in the 2015 version of the “Big 3”. What’s the ideal role of a 3rd option (on a good team)? Is it as simple as a team’s 3rd-leading scorer, or are their responsibilities more diverse? With that said, which is the best 3rd option in the NBA today?

Chris: Great question. The tidy narrative driven after the Spurs won their title last season was the victory of ‘The Team’ over the idea of ‘The Big 3’, but then less than two months later, LeBron goes to Cleveland, they trade for Kevin Love and the idea is reborn. That narrative will never go away, even if the Spurs won last season and a team like the Hawks succeed this year. As long as three talented players are on a roster together, someone will throw that term around, so I like your idea of embracing it and exploring our options here.

You pose great questions about how to define the 3rd option. To me, there is no definition and hopefully some of my favorite third options in the league can demonstrate what I mean:

• Let’s pour some out for one of the most universally adored NBA third options the league has seen in a long time, Wesley Matthews. I wrote in a recent Give and Go that Portland was the team I would be most interested in watching down the stretch. to examine the question “Can they win the title?” That went up in smoke when Matthews went down. Not to mention the amount of money it will cost him.   

• With Memphis, it’s hard to determine a hierarchy between Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, and Zach Randolph, and players like Courtney Lee, Tony Allen, and Jeff Green are important to what they do. But I’d be hard-pressed to find a more talented trio on any NBA roster out there. Given Marc Gasol’s MVP discussion-worthy start, and Mike Conley officially ‘shedding’ the underrated tag, I think of Randolph as the third banana in this scenario now. And that’s pretty fucking insane to be averaging 16 and 11 as the third banana.
• Tony Parker is the engine that drives the Spurs’ offense. As we’ve seen for much of this season, when he’s not playing well, the Spurs don’t play well. Tim Duncan, at the advanced age of 63 is a defensive player of the year candidate and is the foundation upon which the Spurs’ defense is built. To my mind, that makes Kawhi Leonard the third option on a championship-level team. Kawhi can do anything on the basketball floor, but if you removed either Tony or Timmy right now, the burden of carrying one side of the ball might be too much for him.   
• To your point about the 3rd option being the third-leading scorer, that’s certainly not the case for the Clippers. Crawford and Reddick would be candidates based on scoring, but without a doubt the third most important player on that roster is DeAndre Jordan. He’s been a monster since Blake went down and his shot chart is a testament to the ultimate role player. He knows exactly what his teams asks of him, and that’s what he gives them.
• Josh Smith is obviously the third-most important player to this Houston … just kidding. I wanted to make sure you were still paying attention, Mitchell.

If that tells me anything it’s that there is no way to define the 3rd option beyond the third-most important player to a good team. And even that implies you need to rank the top three hierarchically that diminishes the cohesion of a team like Memphis or Atlanta or even Golden State.

I blame NBA Jam for this. To most in our age group, NBA Jam can do no wrong, I know. But they boiled down an NBA roster to three players and you can play as any two-man combination of those three players. It’s probably half the reason I fell in love with the Muggsy Bogues, Alonzo Mourning, Larry Johnson trio. Actually, I take that back, it’s not even close to 20% of the reason I fell in love with that team.  

So what are your thoughts, Mitchell? How do you define a third option and who is your favorite in this NBA season?



Mitchell: As is true with any question in life, really, NBA Jam makes a perfect metaphor. I am also guilty of picking the Charlotte Hornets every single time, unless it was the console version that had replaced Muggsy with Kendall Gill and removed Reggie Lewis. Now whether I was influenced by the outsized personalities and marketing campaigns of Muggsy Bogues and Larry “Grandmama” Johnson or by the pretty, baby blue jerseys of the fresh, new franchise I’m not sure, but even back in the days of arcades and quarters, I always appreciated the Hornets’ mix of speed, shooting, strength, shot blocking, and huge dunks.

Alonzo Mourning was a must-play. In a standard game, without fouls or hot spots, ‘Zo was a one-man wrecking crew, who would two-hand, novelty shove any offensive player who dared to enter the paint or elevate near his basket. From there I’d have to debate the merits and style of play of LJ or Muggsy to round out my starting duo, unless I felt adventurous and started two offensive players without a rim protector. It never worked out, and I would soon run out of quarters.

Defense matters, whether it’s NBA Jam or with third options on good teams. There’s no template or control in the experiment of how to build a title team, as every championship squad has been unique from each other, but there are certain trends that emerge in roster construction. The highest-paid player is often the team’s leading scorer (and leader in usage rate), with the second-highest next. Whether it’s unfair or not, I feel that the defensive burden then falls to the team’s third option, who also needs to consistently score in double-digits against playoff defenses.

Basically Chris Bosh, at least as far as recent examples from a really good team. Bosh took plenty of derision from fans and praise from coaches by the end of Miami’s four-consecutive Finals appearances, as a new-age big capable of stretching defenses as a catch-and-shoot player but who was also quick enough to cover the entire court. Sometimes it takes little moments, like grabbing the offensive rebound that led to one of the greatest shots in NBA history, to prove his value, or the long road trips where he’s leading the team in scoring when the team’s other options are out with injury.

So I guess flexibility too, along with defensive and offensive competence, or like you said, a good team’s third-best player. But that then gets into the concept of value and how to equate offense vs. defense, and I’m not ready to open that can of worms. Here are my top 5 third options, instead.

1. Chris Bosh. This might officially be an insult now, after getting paid to be the post-LBJ The Man in Miami and carrying the team before injuries ruined his 2014-15 season, but Bosh has just about perfected his role as a floor-spacer and pick-and-roll blitzer, and I’m sure won’t mind conceding the ball to Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic.
2. Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi began the 2014 Finals as the third or fourth option in the Spurs’ offense, but by series’ end was dominating with the ball as the Finals MVP. Tim Duncan has been the most consistent Spur and Tony Parker the most crucial to the team’s success, while Leonard provides them with another level of upside. It’s no coincidence that as he’s returned to the lineup this season the San Antonio Spurs have gotten hot.
3. Serge Ibaka. Serge has always been underrated as a third option who clearly knows his limitations in playing with two of the league’s best players on a nightly basis. He’s extended his face-up game to the three-point line while doubling as the league’s second-leading shot blocker, and yet still leaves me wanting to see more from him as a player. If he never gets better he’s safe on this list due to his defensive impact, but if he ever adds a post game or desire to draw free throws, he’s a future Finals MVP.
4. Draymond Green. This might be a stretch until he can prove it in this year’s playoffs. Draymond checks all of the boxes I need from my third options, besides maybe the consistent ability to get his own shot, but he locks in on the defensive end, provides spacing options from the power forward spot, and offers intangibles for days on the league’s most dominant team. Dude’s gonna get paid.
5. Kevin Love. I’m going to cheat here and screw over Mike Conley or Wes Matthews or Paul Millsap/Jeff Teague in favor of criticizing Kevin Love. Love is a great example of the almost cruel irony in today’s NBA economics, where he became a star player on a rookie contract in a small market and never really had the coaching or veteran culture around him to flesh out the rest of his game (outside of his insane scoring and rebounding numbers). As a result his teams struggled and he asked out, and ended up in a situation that has the scoring and rebounding covered but needs Love to play defense and do the little things.  His tenure so far in Cleveland is really interesting, as he might even be a better player than the team’s second option in Kyrie Irving, but Love is the one eliciting the “James Jones and Mike Miller” comparisons this season. He’s an insanely skilled player that has yet to figure out how to pick his spots in a complementary role around LeBron James and Kyrie, but despite the tremendous talent gap, you have to wonder how the Cavs would look with Draymond Green as their third option over Love.

Trade Deadline Fallout

Mark D. Smith/USA TODAY Sports

Remember on the podcast when Chris and I predicted that the NBA’s trade deadline would be weak and underwhelming? That was fun. Never before have I been so glad to be so wrong, as the transactions flew at such a frenzied pace Thursday afternoon that even the Woj-cyborg showed signs of short-circuiting.

Good lord.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojYahooNBA) February 19, 2015

In total, 37 players were involved in trades on Thursday alone and about a dozen draft picks changed hands. Here’s my best account of rationalizing and breaking down each trade in the chronological order in which they broke, in the hours leading up to Thursday’s 3pm (EST) trade deadline - outside of that last half hour to 20-minute stretch that closed out the activity, when my head might have momentarily exploded. Most of the information has been referenced from SBNation’s concise trade listings, and I’ve used the always clutch Pro Sports Transactions for any future draft picks that were moved.

Episode 049 - #NBABallots & Eastern Conference Playoff Teams

Chris and Paul work out their #NBABallots before transitioning to the Eastern Conference playoff race and some brief TV talk.

Worth a click:

The Unassuming, Unknown Superstar Status of Al Horford (Zach Lowe, The Triangle/Grantland)

The Atlanta Hawks fly under the radar (Kevin Arnovitz, TrueHoop)

Gordon Hayward is becoming a franchise player (Mirin Fader, SBNation)

The Magic are winning by pushing the pace (Jesus Gomez, SBNation)

Charlotte’s ultimate list of trade targets (James Plowright, Queen City Hoops/True Hoop Network)

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs will enter the 2014-15 season as the defending champions and deepest team in the league, with as great an opportunity as any in their franchise’s history to repeat as champions. Their entire team from last year was retained by general manager R.C. Buford this offseason, plus draft pick Kyle Anderson with the last pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, giving the Spurs a solid 13 or so players on the roster (depending on how you feel about Jeff Ayres or Austin Daye). Head coach Gregg Popovich will again attempt to limit his players’ minutes to under 30 per game to utilize his depth and keep his starters healthy for the playoffs, as three bench players last season averaged double figures in points per game. Tim Duncan, future Hall of Famer and one of the greatest players in the game’s history, will return for his 17^th season, joining fellow-future Hall of Famers Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Popovich. As in last years’ playoffs with the San Antonio Spurs, though, their upside as a team and title favorite lie with their fourth-year small forward, Kawhi Leonard.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love
(Lisa DeJong/The Cleveland Plain Dealer)

It’s still weeks before the start of the regular season and the very concept of the Cleveland Cavaliers as a super team with serious championship aspirations is still a little strange. The franchise has had its moments of futility throughout its 44-year history, but also NBA and Conference Finals appearances over the last ten years. LeBron James may be the constant to their periods of contention, but the composition, and potential upside, of the team around him is vastly different than those veteran-laden teams of the mid-to-late ‘aughts.

Episode 032 - Free Agency

Chris and Paul delve into NBA free agency and the monumental LeBron James decision by discussing the moves so far this summer and the first week of summer league action.

# 26 - Miami Heat

 

Associated Press

Editor's Note: For this pick Mitchell and I abandoned the every other pattern we've been using because I loved this fit for Miami and couldn't realistically come up with a trade for them to get to an odd number that would make sense for them.  Mitchell will be making the # 29 pick instead.

What I’d Do:

Spencer Dinwiddie - Colorado

6’6” (6’8” wingspan), 205 lbs, 4/6/1993 (21 years old)

I haven’t really watched SportsCenter in months to be honest.  For those that watch it regularly, you will probably come to despise the Miami Heat situation and Lebron James no matter what his ultimate decision is.  I suppose that’s inevitable.  That’s alright.  Mitchell and I will continue to combat the casual fan narrative:  the idea that Lebron somehow owes something to the League, to Dwayne Wade, to Pat Riley, to Mario Chalmers.  For those that can see through the outer layer of narrative, the Miami Heat situation is fascinating.

Pat Riley’s press conference was the beginning.  I’ve only heard this podcast twice, but the most recent Juliet Show had a great discussion about Pat Riley (including a Pat Riley as the Tywin Lannister of the NBA comparison!!!).  It did seem like a power play.  A calculated move to put pressure on Lebron.  Lebron countered by opting out and now Chad Ford is reporting that Miami is willing to trade up to get a backup point guard because Lebron tweeted about him in March.  I think we all know who has the power here.  

I think it’s unfair to say Brian Windhorst rode Lebron’s coat tails to journalistic prominence.  Windhorst is well respected throughout the league and has obviously cultivated some amazing contacts.  It’s not unfair to say that if there was no Lebron, Windhorst might still be working with the amazing Terry Pluto at The Plain Dealer instead of the largest sports writing platform in the world.  That’s not a knock on Windhorst.  He’s a great journalist who seized an amazing opportunity aggressively.  It does illustrate the power of Lebron though.  He has his own gravitational pull.  

Between Lebron, Carmelo, and Love this off-season may turn into the craziest we’ve seen yet.  Even crazier than 2010.  That’s pretty amazing considering we spent almost the entire NBA season assuming it would be quite mundane when the Big 3 and Carmelo all re-signed.  It started yesterday with the Knicks and Houston moving rim protectors. The Knicks move was triggered by Carmelo’s opt out.  Houston’s by both Carmelo and Lebron.  Tonight has the potential to be one of the craziest drafts in memory because of all these moving parts.

Shabazz Napier may be who Pat Riley thinks Lebron wants, but I don’t buy he’s the best fit.  In fact, Spencer Dinwiddie could be more talented and the Heat might be better served trading down into the start of the second round to grab him instead of giving up any potential asset they might have (they don’t have much right now) in order to trade up for Napier.  Let me explain.

Spencer Dinwiddie, if healthy, would have been a high lottery pick, I am convinced.  He is a 6’6” point guard that can absolutely do it all.  He somehow managed to decrease his usage rate while producing at the same level on a Colorado that he was absolutely carrying this year before the injury.  Colorado was 14-2 before Dinwiddie blew out his knee against Washington including a win against Kansas (where Dinwiddie had 15 and 7 assists) and a tough loss to Oklahoma St (Dinwiddie matched Marcus Smart’s 18 on 6 of 14 shooting).  After Dinwiddie’s injury, Colorado went 9-10.  He can not only score (68% career true shooting % and 8.9 free throw attempts per 40 in two consecutive seasons), he also has a 2.18 assist to turnover rate leading to the belief he may be able to play point guard.  Also, his nickname is 'The Mayor'.

He fits perfectly with Miami to me.  He has great size.  He can shoot.  He can be a ball handler, but playing with Miami does not have to be the primary ball handler.  Defensively, he is not exceptional, but he has size and lateral quickness, has solid steal numbers, and paired with other great defensive players (Bosh and James) in a great defensive system, he may thrive.  The biggest concern is the ACL injury.  It’s the reason you could get a player this good, so late.  It’s certainly a concern.  However, ACL injuries are far from career ending with today’s medical advancements (see Blake Griffin).  I think the risk is worth it.  Miami has to take risks to find supplemental talent for the Big 3.

This all assumes that Lebron, Wade, and Bosh are coming back.  That’s a huge assumption and unfortunately, Miami has no idea what those three are going to do when they’re making draft day decisions.  It’ll be fascinating to watch.

What I Think They’ll Do:

It pretty much seems like Napier is the guy.  I don’t think they have to go too high to get him, but I expected Toronto to draft Ennis.  If there’s a chance they go Napier instead, than Miami will have to make something crazy work to get up ahead of # 21.  That seems like the most likely scenario.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:  

I tried working Tyson Chandler into as many of these draft day trades as possible.  I’m glad to see him get out of New York.  In the aftermath, the Iman Shumpert to Miami for this # 26 pick seems pretty reasonable.  If I’m Miami, I think I make that move rather than Napier.  Of course, it’s Lebron’s call.

Happy Opening Day!

Happy Opening Day!

Every year it seems that today comes longer to hoop heads, that the wait is unusually more agonizing and the offseason more arduous than the one preceding it. A quick mathematical investigation on my part has shown that this NBA summer has been, in fact, as consistently long as in previous years. If anything, that amazing Spurs/Heat Finals going seven games actually afforded us a few extra days of sweet, sweet basketball, compared to the five game LeBron/Durant Showdown of 2012. The offseason has not lacked for entertainment or drama either, as fans in Houston/Los Angeles and Brooklyn/Boston would, respectively, probably characterize it. And while some franchises might enter hibernation earlier this winter, there are glimmers of hope and change in other corners of the NBA map.

This season is going to be spectacular, by all accounts. As is true in every other of the NBA’s near-70 year existence, not every team has a realistic shot at a championship. 2013-14 might even feature a record run of rebuilding and futility from franchises, even as the first (honest, if not anonymous) general manager details why this might already be a lost season and it’s not even Halloween yet. But, for the first time in my 15+ years as an NBA fan, you can make a case that every one of the 30 organizations at least has a plan in place.

Think about that for a second, and think of how rare that premise has been in recent seasons. Even Donald Sterling can’t screw his own organization up anymore! We’re going to see plenty of bad teams this year and many blowout losses, but even the stingiest of rosters is assembled with a clear goal in mind that makes sense: this upcoming draft is going to be really good and rookie contracts are better values than free agent contracts.

For the most part we’re not seeing traditionally bad organizations target mediocrity or drift aimlessly through another NBA season. With the settled situation in Sacramento, another lottery season might be realistic, but stability and new ownership has sparked optimism, and a big trade wouldn’t surprise anyone. Phoenix and Philadelphia might be openly bereft of talent (and are probably the odds-on favorites to have supplied that previous passage to Mr. Goodman) but with draft picks and playing time for young prospects, you can’t say they’re quote-unquote “tanking” (UGH) or being cheap or disingenuous to their fanbases.

Boston is in the nascent stages of their long-term rebuild, and a franchise-altering lottery pick in 2014 would be a nice block to build upon. Charlotte has been bad while trying to be good, and an Al Jefferson signing, plus Kemba/Gerald/MKG, helps make them watchable while still staying semi-flexible in their search for a franchise guy. While they’re not the laughing stock of the league this season after two historically inept campaigns, they should still be in lottery contention in the #RigginforWiggins or #TankSafariforJabari efforts. Orlando is firmly in year two of their post-Dwight existence, with a solid collection of assets and a coach that has already installed a culture. Utah’s situation is slightly different, in that they’ve developed their young core alongside positive veterans in Jeff, Milsap and (gulp) Jamaal Tinsley, and while an overachieve to a playoff spot wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, an impact lottery pick (from the wing/guard spot?) would bolster a more realistic 2015 playoff push.

It’s probably a good thing that the NBA mediocrity, the 7-10 seeds in each conference, are mostly inhabited by younger teams who hope that an entrance into the playoffs portends bigger things to their futures. Minnesota, Denver, Portland, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Toronto, Washington and the Pelicans (!) all feature a young core with legitimate playoff aspirations, where even a short series pounding against a Miami, Chicago, Indiana, San Antonio, or Oklahoma City would go well towards seasoning that core or persuading bitter franchise guys to stick around.

It’s the older teams settling in at that .500 level that are the most frustrating franchises this season. While Mark Cuban asserts that three year deals are the new market inefficiency, it’s still an older team with questionable personnel fits that will struggle to defend. The Lakers might be better served to sit the season out, settle their chemistry issues and develop a long-term plan, especially with so many upcoming marquee free agents with LA ties. Instead they’re pulling a 2012 Cuban and spending money on one-year deals, hoping that fitting players into a coaching scheme will get them to the playoffs. But then what?

The legitimate playoff teams stay scheming to claim the throne. We’ll see if the Atlanta’s and Knicks’s of the league can compete while transitioning their teams to what could be a different look next season. Brooklyn and Golden State found that they enjoyed their playoff debuts last year and made commitments to hopefully surpass their successes of a season ago. Organizations like the Heat, Spurs, Bulls, Pacers, Grizzlies and Thunder preferred to rely on internal improvements to augment their rosters. They might enter the season slept on but are all veteran teams with confidence and an identity.

The most interesting teams might be the ones on the title periphery, who were mere bounces or breaks away from taking Miami or San Antonio’s spots in 2013. An offseason of confidence could do wonders to the next teams up, who made mostly minor alterations: a beefed up bench or an extra shooter to space the floor or someone to defend the LeBrons or Tony Parkers that they will have to vanquish on their journey to NBA immortality.

And the kings stay the kings. Once they sublimated their egos enough to embrace their revolution on the game, the only thing that can beat the Heat might truly be free agency. Injuries to Dwyane and Bosh weren’t enough to knock them off. Boxing matches with the Pacers and Bulls, and burying their Boston rivals once and for all, couldn’t do it either, it only weakened them enough to enable their Western foes to get close. But when backed against the wall, a spot they’ve been in more times than any other recent dynasty since the Rockets of the mid-90’s, they’ve regrouped, summoned their resolve and unleashed historical performances on the macro and micro levels (see video below ). As a dynasty, they’ve raised the games of everyone around them, bringing out the best in their adversaries and creating history, while ushering in perhaps an evolution to a style of play that for 40 years had been derided as a gimmick.

Oh yeah, and we’ve seen one of the handful of most talented athletes ever realize his potential, develop his game and basically mature while acting as the league’s most popular player and outright villain. We knocked LeBron James for not being clutch (whatever that means). Then we picked apart his lack of a post game. Finally we wondered if he could stand up, mentally, to the rigors of being the target and to dominate every night while elevating his game in the playoffs. Now we’re honestly just wondering where he’ll play next and how many potential championships that could swing.

I cannot wait for 7 o’clock.