2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Bradley Beal

via www.slamonline.com

Entering the third year of his professional career, Bradley Beal is poised to break out as a star in the NBA. His second season saw successes at the team level, as the Washington Wizards finished with the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference and defeated the Chicago Bulls in the first round of the playoffs, and some strides in his own game from his rookie season. The team added veteran pieces to the roster this summer, in the hopes of improving on their 48-win season last year, with the now LeBron-less Southeast Division entirely up for grabs. As the roster improves, so should Bradley Beal, and an All-Star appearance is absolutely within reach in Year Three.

The third pick of the 2012 NBA Draft, Bradley Beal elicited comparisons to Ray Allen almost immediately. As a two-guard with a smooth jump shot, that’s about where the comparisons end. Standing 6’4”(ish?), with a 6’8” wingspan, and weighing 202 lbs., Beal fancied himself more of a combo-guard than a pure, catch-and-shoot off-guard early in his career (despite the self-proclaimed Ray Allen comps), and his shooting and efficiency numbers in college and the pros reflect that.

In his single season at the University of Florida Beal played a fair amount of small forward in lineups with upper-classmen guards Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. Shooting just 33.9% from three, with a 57.5 true shooting percentage, Beal averaged 14.8 points, 6.7 boards, 2.2 assists (negated by 2.1 turnovers, however, with a 23% usage rate) and swiped 1.4 steals in his 34.2 minutes per game. His 10.6 field goal attempts a game were split almost evenly between threes (5 shots per game) and two-point field goals (5.6 per), where he shot 54%, with 4.7 free throw attempts on 76.9% shooting. He tied or led the team in scoring in three of their four NCAA Tournament games, with improved three-point shooting at 42.1%, before eventually losing to the fourth-seeded Louisville Cardinals.

As a rookie with the Washington Wizards in 2012-13, Beal improved his accuracy on threes but struggled shooting inside the arc. He shot 41% on overall field goals and 51.5% in true shooting, with 42.4/38.6/78.6 percentages on 8.1 2-point field goal attempts, 4.2 3FGA, and 2.8 FTA. He finished (a distant) third in the Rookie of the Year voting behind Damian Lillard and Anthony “Unibrow” Davis despite missing over 30 games on the season, and was second on the team in points per game (13.9) behind John Wall. As expected, his rebounds declined at the pro level, to 3.8 per game, but he improved a bit in passing the ball, with a 2.4/1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio while using 22.2% of possessions.

The Wizards would win 29 games in Beal’s rookie season, finishing 30^th in offensive rating and 5^th on defense, and lost the first 12-consecutive games to open the season, with another 8-game losing streak in December, before point guard John Wall returned from injury in January. Beal was asked to shoulder a lot of the ball-handling and shot-creating responsibilities early in the season without Wall, before being shut down with a stress injury in his right fibula on April 4^th. 

In the 460 minutes that Beal and Wall played together in 2012-13, Beal saw his efficiency numbers jump to 47.1% from the floor with a 58.2 true shooting percentage (45.2% on 2’s and 50% from three). Playing alongside a point guard allowed Beal to handle the ball less (19.9% usage) and focus more on scoring (1.16 points per shot with Wall, 1.02 without). The team added forward Otto Porter Jr. with the third pick in the 2013 Draft, and a healthy Wizards team gave fans optimism heading into the 2013-14 season.

all shot charts courtesy of www.nyloncalculus.com

Unfortunately the health didn't last long into the offseason before starting center Emeka Okafor suffered a herniated disc in his back, knocking him out of the entire regular season. Considering power forward Nene Hilario’s considerable injury history, General Manager Ernie Grunfeld felt compelled to bolster the frontcourt, sending the injured-Okafor and a 2014 first round pick to the Phoenix Suns for Marcin Gortat. It was a risky move at the time, as the Wiz picked first in the 2010 Draft, sixth in 2011, third in 2012, and third in 2013, but Grunfeld (and head coach Randy Wittman) were entering the final year of their contracts and needed to make the playoffs to keep their jobs.

The team would start the season losing their first three games again, and five out of their first seven, before reaching .500 on December 3^rd and finishing with a 44-38 record, good enough for second in their division and fifth in the conference. Marcin Gortat actually improved upon Okafor’s numbers at center, particularly offensively, and the offense jumped to 17^th in the league (8^th in defensive rating). A contract year from Trevor Ariza helped immensely from the small forward spot, with his ability to guard perimeter scorers and hit corner threes, and Grunfeld was able to make a couple of midseason moves for veteran players to step into the bench rotation (Drew Gooden as a free agent and Andre Miller in a trade with the Denver Nuggets) and contribute. Nene missed his customary 29 games, and rookie Otto Porter struggled as a pro, only getting into 37 games and averaging just over two points per game. More importantly, however, John Wall and Bradley Beal were able to stay on the court and play together.

John Wall started all 82 games for the first time in his career, setting his career-highs in points per game (19.1), assists (8.7), steals (1.8), win shares (7.9 total, split evenly among offense and defense), and shooting percentages on two-pointers (45.8%), three-pointers (35.1%), free throws (80.5%), true shooting (52.4%), and effective field goals (47.3%). Selected to the All-Star game for the first time, Wall was effective despite slowing down the pace a bit (93.2 possessions a game compared to 95.8 in ’12-13), and seemed comfortable (in the regular season, anyways) running Wittman’s high pick-and-roll based system and generated a ton of corner-threes for Ariza and Beal.

Bradley Beal was also able to (slightly) improve upon his numbers from the previous season, but his 73 games played was the most crucial. He increased his minutes per game (34.7), points (17.1), assists (3.3), FG% (41.9), 3FG% (40.2), usage (24.3%), PER (14.3), and win shares (4.0; 1.6 on offense and 2.4 on D) while playing alongside Wall in his second season. He didn’t get the same All-Star love, but he did finish second in the Three-Point Shootout during All-Star Weekend behind Marco Bellinelli. Beal would set his career-high with 37 points in a loss at Memphis in February, which, coincidentally, was in a game that Tony Allen would miss with injury. He would save his next step of development for the playoffs, though, against the two best defenses in basketball.

Beal’s national coming out party began in the first round series against the Chicago Bulls. In the five games he averaged 19.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists, a steal, and 1.6 turnovers per, shooting 44% from the field and 45% from three. He was active early and often, moving well off-ball and looking for his shot. In the highlights in the above video he’s incredibly aggressive, keeping the ball on a 3-on-1 break, pulling up to shoot off of screens, and even forcing a shot to potentially win the game in regulation. It wasn’t a great shot, as he was fading out of bounds and had Joakim Noah on the switch, but the aggression in wanting to win the game and the “I got this” mentality is a good sign for a 20-year old 2-guard.

The next round against the Indiana Pacers saw his shooting percentages drop. He still averaged 18.6 points, 5.3 boards, 4.8 dimes, 2.1 steals, and 2.5 turnovers a game, but on 41.1% from the field and 38.7% on the 3. The Wizards would lose the next three straight games following it, and ultimately the series in six games, but Bradley Beal’s performance in their Game 1 victory flashed that star potential. Bailing out the offense with three pointers to beat the shot clock, taking it to the basket and finishing and-ones, and mastering the high-screen game that he was “so used to [running] with Florida”, Beal finished with 25 points on 18 shots, 7 boards, 6 assists, 5 steals, and 4 turnovers, with 14 points coming in the 4^th quarter of a 6-point victory. It’s that confidence in his abilities and stepping up to take big shots that fuels my optimism in his All-Star odds for 2014-15.

GM Ernie Grunfeld and coach Randy Wittman were retained in the offseason after a successful second round run, and Grunfeld went to work in free agency to add veteran contributors at key positions of need. Rather than retain Trevor Ariza after a strong season in Wittman’s system (14.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 45.6% on field goals and 40.7% from three), he instead scrapped up future-Hall of Famer Paul Pierce on a two year, $11 million deal that includes a player option in ’15-16. Ariza went on to sign for $32 million over four years with the Houston Rockets (technically it was a sign-and-trade), but in avoiding the four years on Ariza, Grunfeld keeps the flexibility for a max-contract offer in the summer of 2016. I wonder, who would be a free agent in the summer of 2016 with ties to the Washington, D.C. area…

Obama , J Wall here I come — Paul Pierce (@paulpierce34) July 13, 2014

Grunfeld also re-signed Marcin Gortat to a five year, $60 million deal, which is probably an overpay for the 30-year old center in terms of years but he’s a valuable player and the contract shouldn’t be a cap-killer. He also re-signed Drew Gooden, and executed sign-and-trades for fellow bigs DeJuan Blair and Kris Humphries. The Wizards should have their best big man rotation in years (decades?), even assuming the usual 20+ game absence from Nene. Those new big men additions, plus probable-starter Paul Pierce, will not only help the Wizards build upon their playoff successes last year, but also help Beal build upon his playoff successes.

Bradley Beal shot distribution

Bradley Beal still has issues he needs to build on entering this third season, though. His percentages and efficiency numbers need to get better, and he relied on a lot more mid-range jumpers last season by sacrificing shots in the paint, compared to his rookie year. He’s below average in shooting at the rim but that could improve as he adds upper-body strength, and he hardly takes floaters or pull-ups from the free throw line to the half-circle area of the paint. Beal loves the pull-up jumper off the pick-and-roll, and although he’s a great shooter off-the-dribble it’s still a low percentage shot. He can shoot the three-ball from anywhere on the perimeter, but needs to substitute some of those mid-range looks for threes. Paul Pierce, in particular, can help with that last issue.

The corner-three is a key component of Washington’s offense under Randy Wittman and John Wall, and their pick-and-roll-heavy attack. Wall’s speed when turning the corner on the high screen, coupled with the diving abilities of Nene and Gortat off the roll, collapses the defense and causes the opposing wing to help under the basket, exposing the corner-three for shooters.

Trevor Ariza was the main beneficiary last season, with 21% of his shots coming from either corner, of which he converted at a +44% rate. Beal, in comparison, only took 10% of his regular season shots from the corners, compared to over 13% as a rookie (57% from the left corner and 41.8% from the right in '13-14). He struggled from the corners last year (39.7% from the left and 36.5% from the right), but will get the share of Ariza’s shots from those corners, as Pierce has never been a corner-three threat.

Last season with the Brooklyn Nets saw “The Truth” (or Troof, if you will) take a little over 3% of his total attempts from the corners, going 10-16 from the left side and 2-6 from the right. It could be an adjustment that he makes in ’14-15 as he plays with a quick, young point guard again, but even in his best seasons playing with Rajon Rondo he never took more than 4% of his shots from the corners. He’s a more than willing three-point shooter otherwise, with 39% of his shots coming from straight-away or wing-threes last season.

Bradley Beal is going to get those corner-threes that Pierce just isn’t comfortable shooting. 15% of his shots last season were long jumpers from the right side of the basket, where he converted around 34%, and taking a step or two back to shoot from the three-point line could even improve his efficiency numbers. A lot of those mid-range looks were off of high screens, but turning the corner and getting into the paint for a floater/lay-up or a closer jump shot would also help improve his 41.9% from the field last year.

Pierce also adds a passing dimension that Ariza could never offer (career assist percentage of 19.4 compared to Ariza's 11.9), and his presence could get the ball moving even more. He’ll join a roster with other willing-passers in Wall, Beal, Nene, and “Professor” Andre Miller, which could result in more scoring opportunities for Beal on the perimeter or Gortat in the paint. Humphries, Gooden, and DeJuan Blair, especially, are capable finishers off the P&R, with Humphries and Gooden showing decent catch-and-shoot options as well. The team finished 7^th in assists per game last season, and that number should rise with the veteran talent added.

Grunfeld actually assembled a great mixture of experience and youth on the roster. Pierce might be the only guy with a ring, but there are solid players at every position, with a couple of intriguing young pieces who could see playing time. Otto Porter will be the backup small forward until Martell Webster gets right and maybe Glen Rice Jr. could scrap minutes after scoring buckets and taking the Las Vegas Summer League MVP in the offseason. Combined with the continual-development of Wall and Beal, this Wizards team has a lot of experience and upside.

The days of John Wall leading the team in scoring end in 2014-15, as the star potential becomes realized for Bradley Beal. I can’t wait to start reading the stories of Paul Pierce’s influence on the young kids, especially once he gets into shooting contests with Beal in practices, and I fully expect Pierce to be on the Beal-and-Wall bandwagon pretty vocally this preseason. My only concern to Beal’s development and the ultimate ceiling of the team might revolve around Randy Wittman’s presence, and his lack of creativity on the offensive end, but there’s enough talent present to succeed in spite of some shaky coaching.

If there’s one thing that I hope Wittman can impart on young Bradley Beal is that mid-range jumpers from 18-20 feet are bad and paint points are good, but it should hopefully reveal itself as Beal gains more experience at the NBA level. His point per game numbers will jump solidly into the 20’s just off the likely-increase in corner-threes alone, and any improvement in shot selection and efficiency will only add to that scoring average. Bradley Beal is destined to be a star, and his All-Star reign begins this season.