Chris and Paul begin with recent NBA news, including the Rockets' struggles and dismissal of head coach Kevin McHale, the Warriors' undefeated start to the season, and the Mavericks' recent six-game winning streak, then talk about teams they've watched, the Celtics, the rookie class, and some TV/movies/podcasts.
Chris and Paul catch up on all the chaos of the NBA offseason by beginning with the DeAndre Jordan hostage situation and subsequent social media response, then touch on Greg Monroe’s signing with the Milwaukee Bucks, the San Antonio Super Spurs, the Boston Celtics’ asset acquisitions, and other assorted free agent signings.
In Episode 51, Chris and Paul discuss the just-announced All-Star reserves, some streaking teams, and the New England Patriots/Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl.
Rajon Rondo was already one of the NBA’s most polarizing players. This week he went and got traded and whipped the basketball world into a frenzy. There was a lot to unpack with this deal, but in the end, it’s no surprise that Zach Lowe had the most nuanced take. The fact of the matter is, as Lowe points out, Rondo’s knee injury robbed the Celtics of ‘the sweet spot’ as Lowe put it, where Rondo’s value would have been highest.
The more fascinating thing might be the basketball science experiment the Mavs are now conducting. What happens when you introduce a poor-outside-shooting-passing-savant to the League’s best offense? Personally, I’m not sure... but I’m intrigued.
One thing that Rondo will bring to the table that is disassociated from half-court pick and roll spacing is his other-worldly passing skills in transition. Check out this drop off to Aminu off the Monta Ellis steal that utilizes Chandler Parsons as a decoy whether he likes it or not:
The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.
Story going online now co-scribed with @NotoriousOHM: ESPN sources say Nets have made D-Will, Brook Lopez & Joe Johnson available via trade
— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) December 9, 2014
Paul: We talked about trades a bit on last week’s podcast, but it seems we’re not the only ones anxious for the NBA’s trade season to unofficially begin. Under a week from the December 15th mark on the NBA calendar, when free agents signed over the summer become eligible for trade, and it’s not a surprise that the trade speculation has escalated, with the Dion Waiters for Kosta Koufos rumor picking up a couple of days ago and now the report from Steiny Mo and Ohm Youngmisuk.
So, Chris, let’s focus this week’s Give and Go on trades, and I’ll put a couple of questions to you. First, is there any chance one of the Nets’ “Big 3” get moved this season? And which fake trade would you make to start the the NBA’s trade season?
Chris: I’ll start with the Nets ‘Big 3’. Almost minutes after that Steiny Mo tweet I saw multiple members of basketball twitter submit their trade machine screenshots sending Brook Lopez to the Celtics. You’ve watched him closer than I have this season as you cover the Nets for Brooklyn’s Finest, so you can probably speak to it better than I can, but my immediate reaction was, ‘Please no!’. In theory, Brook provides the foundational center the Celtics are sorely lacking, but between the injury history and my belief that all Brook would do is slow this Celtics team down, I’m completely out on that scenario.
Deron has been playing well this season and if there’s ever a time to attempt to unload him, it’s now. Going into the season, multiple members of the Starters called Deron the worst contract in the league. I’m not sure that’s true anymore, although it’s certainly not good. The point guard market is bare, but maybe there are teams that would bite on a deal. Could Dallas put together a package that keeps its core intact and brings Deron in to soak up the Ray Felton/Jameer Nelson minutes? Maybe the Nets could convince the Knicks to make another panic move? I’m not sure, but Deron, averaging 17.1 points and 6.5 assists and shooting over 40% from 3-point range, has the most value he’s had in possibly 18 months.
Joe Johnson has real value now. He’s a bona fide scorer that has great size at either wing position. The contract is big, but it’s only for this year and next and comes off the books just in time for the new television deal to kick in, which is just what many teams want. Maybe a Lance for Joe Johnson swap could be the base of a deal if Charlotte really doesn’t have the patience? The Cavs or Clippers would love to get their hands on Joey J, but I don’t think they have the pieces to make the deal happen. I wouldn’t mind a Johnson-Jeff Green swap for the C’s. They’d give up cap space this summer for next summer, but they’d also get the fourth quarter scorer they so desperately need. That would make the C’s better though, and I’m still not sure they know if they want that yet. Indiana would also be a great candidate for Joe Johnson. What about a deal like this:
The Pacers would have to part with George Hill, but in my opinion, Donald Sloan and Solomon Hill have played solid enough to make that feasible. Johnson brings some ball-handling from the wing as well. Moving Mahinmi might make the Pacers nervous so that’s why I included Plumlee, who doesn’t seem to be on Lionel Hollins’s best side. It seems like Jerome Jordan is getting more playing time than was expected. More options would open up after December 15th when someone like C.J. Miles and his $4 million plus contract could be used, maybe instead of Scola.
The weird thing is that these two teams are currently battling for the 8 seed in the East, but if the Nets are so intent on blowing it up, who am I (a Celtics fan with a dog in the fight) to get in their way, right? What do you think? Can the Nets move one of the big three? And what other deals do you think can/should/will get done in the coming months?
Paul:I’ve had to watch Brook Lopez play basketball every game for the last month-plus and my reaction to the Boston Celtics trading for Bropez is about the same. The Celtics need an athletic, shot-blocking presence at the rim, and, ironically, so do the Nets. Brook is currently out for the week with a back strain and has already missed the first week of the season with a random foot issue, and a player option next season at almost $17 million creates further uncertainty as to his future status in any trade. If he’s healthy enough to play well he opts out of his contract next summer and seeks a max deal, or he’s hurt and takes up a significant chunk of your cap as he again works his way back from injury. Good offensive centers are scarce, but Brook’s lack of foot speed and limited athleticism should scare enough teams away.
Deron Williams is in a similar situation, although he’s far enough removed from his own ankle injuries to have shown flashes of his former dominance. He’s been Brooklyn’s best, most consistent, player by far and already has a Player of the Week award to his credit this season, but I’m not sure if his trade value around the league is as high as the Nets are hoping, given his salary over the next two seasons and his injury history. The teams that are looking to upgrade at point guard, teams like the Los Angeles Lakers or Sacramento Kings, might not necessarily have the contracts to match back to Brooklyn or the draft picks to deal.
Which brings up the larger point to this exercise, and that’s what Brooklyn’s motivation is in all of this. The team already has almost-$80 million committed to next season’s payroll, and owes two first-round picks to Boston over the next three seasons and the rights to a pick swap in the 2015 draft to the Atlanta Hawks. Outside of Bojan Bogdanovic and Mason Plumlee, who’s struggled hardcore in adjusting to Lionel Hollins’s new concepts, the team lacks any rotation players under-30 years old and under contract next season. Rebuilding, without your own draft picks, isn’t really an option, especially for a team owned (and possibly being sold) by Mikhail Prokhorov. Trading any of these pieces would have to be for depth, and to get younger and more athletic next season.
Joe Johnson is probably the most tradeable piece that general manager Billy King has made available, which is insane for a player who will make just under $25 million in 2015-16. Johnson’s been pretty bad ever since dropping the “selfish” comments before the teams’ three-game, West Coast road trip, but is still among the league’s best at closing out basketball games thanks to his “Iso Joe” abilities. There aren’t many two-guards in the league who can create their own shot, catch-and-shoot, and rebound well, without being a total trainwreck on defense, and Joey J could help a couple of teams.
Finding teams that can match salaries and give the Nets something back besides salary relief is another obstacle. There’s a great trolling-offer to be made around Amare Stoudemire’s expiring contract and Andrea Bargnani for Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez that would piss off both fan bases and cause half of my co-writers at BK’s Finest to quit in protest of having to recap Nets games. Joey J for Amare and Tim Hardaway Jr. works and gives both teams some pieces of value next season, but the Knicks are a mess and should probably focus on playing for a draft pick this year.
This is in no way original, in fact Jonah had the framework of this deal in his trade piece Wednesday, but Joe Johnson could really help the Charlotte Hornets, and they could have a shooting guard to swap after December 15th. I would love to provide the screen cap of my Trade Machine deal of Joe Johnson for Lance Stephenson, Marvin Williams, and Gerald Henderson, but unfortunately both Lance and Marvin are unable to move until the 15th, as they were summer free agent signings that have not worked out in Charlotte. We talked about how disappointing the team has been last week on the Give and Go, but Joe Johnson would immediately become the best shooting guard in franchise history and be able to open up space for Professor Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. Kemba is a good late-game closer in his own right, with a game-winner already under his belt this year, but would have to cede those responsibilities to Joe Johnson for the next two seasons.
Brooklyn would get a flawed-but-young, former New York high school hero in Lance Stephenson in return, who’s under contract for the next three seasons and has struggled in shooting the ball for the Hornets. He’d be able to run the offense more in Brooklyn and have actual shooters to kick to, like Deron, Bojan, and Mirza Teletovic, while helping out on the boards and giving the roster some much-needed athleticism. Marvin Williams would come off the bench at power forward or get flipped before the deadline (or Kevin Garnett?), while Gerald Henderson would rival incumbent-Alan Anderson as my personal least-favorite player to watch on the roster.
The Nets might be able to do better than Lance Stephenson and Marvin Williams, but I doubt Joe Johnson’s true value is anywhere close to Billy King’s expectations of that value. Due to the age, struggles, injury histories, and cost of Brooklyn’s “Big 3”, any trade would return another team’s headache, and the Nets are at a weird position going forward, without any draft picks but with an old and expensive roster. Given the nature of the Brooklyn Nets organization, the leaks and rumors and daily drama should be fun to monitor throughout the winter, but the NBA trade season has begun.
I’m not sure what year it was that I purchased NBA League Pass for the first time. I know it’s been at least 5 or 6 years, and at the time NBATV was still in its infancy. As I documented in the opening of this Anthony Davis pre-season profile, there is typically a lower class of NBA teams that just doesn’t make the cut for Nationally televised games. Today there are many more games on NBATV and if you have an internet connection you could do some morally questionable things to find any game you’d really like. It’s crazy to think this, but as recent as 5 or 6 years ago when I purchased League Pass for the first time, that wasn’t the case. It was damn near impossible to catch Milwaukee or Sacramento or Golden State back then. So when I was first introduced to it, it was a formative experience for me. And I’ll tell you this, Monta Ellis was heavily involved in that formative experience.
Chris and Paul try their first Skype conversation and finish up the third week of their 2014-15 NBA Preview by discussing the bigs they wrote about (Anthony Davis, LaMarcus Aldridge, Serge Ibaka, Marc Gasol, Carmelo Anthony), their teams entering the season, and the bigs who didn't make the cut (Dirk Nowitzki, DeMarcus Cousins, and Al Horford), plus some predictions for the NBA's Defensive Player and Coach of the Year Awards.
Every year it seems that today comes longer to hoop heads,
that the wait is unusually more agonizing and the offseason more arduous than
the one preceding it. A quick mathematical investigation on my part has shown
that this NBA summer has been, in fact, as consistently long as in previous
years. If anything, that amazing Spurs/Heat Finals going seven games actually
afforded us a few extra days of sweet, sweet basketball, compared to the five
game LeBron/Durant Showdown of 2012. The offseason has not lacked for
entertainment or drama either, as fans in Houston/Los Angeles and
Brooklyn/Boston would, respectively, probably characterize it. And while some
franchises might enter hibernation earlier this winter, there are glimmers of
hope and change in other corners of the NBA map.
This season is going to be spectacular, by all accounts. As
is true in every other of the NBA’s near-70 year existence, not every team has
a realistic shot at a championship. 2013-14 might even feature a record run of
rebuilding and futility from franchises, even as the first (honest, if not
anonymous) general manager details why this might already be a lost season and it’s not even Halloween yet. But,
for the first time in my 15+ years as an NBA fan, you can make a case that
every one of the 30 organizations at least has a plan in place.
Think about that for a second, and think of how rare that
premise has been in recent seasons. Even Donald Sterling can’t screw his own organization up anymore! We’re going to see plenty of bad teams this year and many blowout losses,
but even the stingiest of rosters is assembled with a clear goal in mind that
makes sense: this upcoming draft is going to be really good and rookie
contracts are better values than free agent contracts.
For the most part we’re not seeing traditionally bad
organizations target mediocrity or drift aimlessly through another NBA season.
With the settled situation in Sacramento, another lottery season might be
realistic, but stability and new ownership has sparked optimism, and a big
trade wouldn’t surprise anyone. Phoenix and Philadelphia might be openly bereft
of talent (and are probably the odds-on favorites to have supplied that
previous passage to Mr. Goodman) but with draft picks and playing time for
young prospects, you can’t say they’re quote-unquote “tanking” (UGH) or being
cheap or disingenuous to their fanbases.
Boston is in the nascent stages of their long-term rebuild,
and a franchise-altering lottery pick in 2014 would be a nice block to build
upon. Charlotte has been bad while trying to be good, and an Al Jefferson
signing, plus Kemba/Gerald/MKG, helps make them watchable while still staying
semi-flexible in their search for a franchise guy. While they’re not the
laughing stock of the league this season after two historically inept
campaigns, they should still be in lottery contention in the #RigginforWiggins
or #TankSafariforJabari efforts. Orlando is firmly in year two of their
post-Dwight existence, with a solid collection of assets and a coach that has
already installed a culture. Utah’s situation is slightly different, in that
they’ve developed their young core alongside positive veterans in Jeff, Milsap
and (gulp) Jamaal Tinsley, and while an overachieve to a playoff spot wouldn’t
be the worst thing in the world, an impact lottery pick (from the wing/guard
spot?) would bolster a more realistic 2015 playoff push.
It’s probably a good thing that the NBA mediocrity, the 7-10
seeds in each conference, are mostly inhabited by younger teams who hope that
an entrance into the playoffs portends bigger things to their futures.
Minnesota, Denver, Portland, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Toronto, Washington and the
Pelicans (!) all feature a young core with legitimate playoff aspirations,
where even a short series pounding against a Miami, Chicago, Indiana, San
Antonio, or Oklahoma City would go well towards seasoning that core or
persuading bitter franchise guys to stick around.
It’s the older teams settling in at that .500 level that are
the most frustrating franchises this season. While Mark Cuban asserts that
three year deals are the new market inefficiency,
it’s still an older team with questionable personnel fits that will struggle to
defend. The Lakers might be better served to sit the season out, settle their
chemistry issues and develop a long-term plan, especially with so many upcoming
marquee free agents with LA ties. Instead they’re pulling a 2012 Cuban and spending
money on one-year deals, hoping that fitting players into a coaching scheme
will get them to the playoffs. But then what?
The legitimate playoff teams stay scheming to claim the
throne. We’ll see if the Atlanta’s and Knicks’s of the league can compete while
transitioning their teams to what could be a different look next season.
Brooklyn and Golden State found that they enjoyed their playoff debuts last
year and made commitments to hopefully surpass their successes of a season ago.
Organizations like the Heat, Spurs, Bulls, Pacers, Grizzlies and Thunder
preferred to rely on internal improvements to augment their rosters. They might
enter the season slept on but are all veteran teams with confidence and an
identity.
The most interesting teams might be the ones on the title
periphery, who were mere bounces or breaks away from taking Miami or San
Antonio’s spots in 2013. An offseason of confidence could do wonders to the
next teams up, who made mostly minor alterations: a beefed up bench or an extra
shooter to space the floor or someone to defend the LeBrons or Tony Parkers
that they will have to vanquish on their journey to NBA immortality.
And the kings stay the kings. Once they sublimated their
egos enough to embrace their revolution on the game, the only thing that can
beat the Heat might truly be free agency. Injuries to Dwyane and Bosh weren’t
enough to knock them off. Boxing matches with the Pacers and Bulls, and burying
their Boston rivals once and for all, couldn’t do it either, it only weakened
them enough to enable their Western foes to get close. But when backed against
the wall, a spot they’ve been in more times than any other recent dynasty since
the Rockets of the mid-90’s,
they’ve regrouped, summoned their resolve and unleashed historical performances on the macro and micro levels (see video below ). As a dynasty, they’ve raised the games of everyone around them, bringing out
the best in their adversaries and creating history, while ushering in perhaps
an evolution to a style of play that for 40 years had been derided as a
gimmick.
Oh yeah, and we’ve seen one of the handful of most talented
athletes ever realize his potential, develop his game and basically mature
while acting as the league’s most popular player and outright villain. We
knocked LeBron James for not being clutch (whatever that means). Then we picked
apart his lack of a post game. Finally we wondered if he could stand up,
mentally, to the rigors of being the target and to dominate every night while
elevating his game in the playoffs. Now we’re honestly just wondering where
he’ll play next and how many potential championships that could swing.
