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| Original Artwork by Lynnmarie St. Jean |
'With the proliferation of teams, regular-season coverage declined to the point where CBS was ignoring fully two-thirds of them; there were in effect two leagues -- one consisting of the twenty-two NBA member teams, the other a six- or seven-team league covered by CBS, it's version of the NBA.'
-- The Breaks of the Game by David Halberstam (page 14)
In Halberstam's classic, he's talking about the last 1970's NBA, but this statement could just as easily apply today. There are two NBA’s. The one that the NBA has agreed with ESPN and TNT to show you. And then the League Pass NBA, that is hidden away on laptops in fan’s basements.
I understand the business side. Not all NBA fans are as … well fanatical, as you and I. The ratings wouldn’t exactly be through the roof for a Sixers - Magic match-up on a Friday night in January. To me though, Anthony Davis should be the exception. The narrative has already started. Many already agree that Anthony Davis was appointment viewing while he was healthy last year. So why not showcase that? Davis is basically penciled in as the third best player in the world for the 2015-16 season. I'm a bit skeptical of that. It’s not that I don’t think that’s a possibility, it’s that I don’t think that’s a certainty. What I want to know is this: What does Anthony Davis need to improve on to be considered a top five player in the league?
Coming into the league, Davis was viewed as a raw offensive talent, with budding skills and seemed prime to be an impactful defender right away. His athleticism, mobility, and length had him pegged as a future KG-like defender. Similarly to the way Andrew Wiggins is considered today , it was expected Davis would have an immediate impact on defense and struggle offensively despite his obvious skill. Surprisingly though, he hasn't developed according to the plan we've all laid out for him. In his second season, he did show significant development, except the obvious improvements came on the offensive side of the ball, not defense.
The most obvious improvement has been his mid-range shooting. At Kentucky, Davis flirted with the 18-footer now and again. His stroke didn’t look terrible. However, I don’t think anyone expected that by his second year he would improve his shooting consistency this much. As a rookie, Davis shot 29.4% from midrange on 218 attempts. Last season, he shot a respectable 40.1% on 359 attempts. To contextualize, it’s not all that far off from midrange experts like Dirk and Bosh who hover between 48-50% as some of the best in the league. Again, this is in Davis’ second season (he turned 21 this past spring). As we saw with Team USA, it seems his range continues to expand. He looks comfortable from the international 3-point line. It’s no longer outlandish to think that Davis will develop Bosh-like 3-point range at some point in his career, and it seems to be coming much faster than anyone expected. That’s scary.
Of course, if you’re Monty Williams, you probably want Davis close to the basket as much as possible (at least you would think, maybe ease up on the hedging Monty?). He’s shown he is an exceptional rebounder, but he also is extremely effective in the restricted area. Davis ranked 7th of 25 players with more than 400 FGA in the restricted area at 67.6% [surprise, 1 and 2 were Lebron (78.3%) and Durant (77.5%)]. Strangely, he only shot 38.9% from inside the paint and outside the restricted area. That’s an area he’ll need to improve and it’s likely due to his still-developing post game.
As Zach Lowe has pointed out, last season Davis was really only consistent with 1-dribble moves and was experimenting with more two-dribble moves during the Team USA experience (see point # 8 here). Although the results weren't always there, the fact that he was comfortable enough using them in game situations is encouraging. As has been highlighted many times before, Davis’ rare skill set is partly because of the insane growth spurt he had. Before so, he was a guard, with guard skills, and although not all of those skills are as sharp, the remnants are still there. It does seem that with some development, Davis could become dangerous using the dribble both within the post and, as that jump shot becomes a weapon, as part of a show and go move.
It’s also hard to envision Davis’ offensive role with everyone healthy on this team. It’s not something that happened often last season. The lineup of Davis-Anderson-Tyreke-Gordon-Jrue had an astonishing 123.5 Off rating, but they only played 91 minutes together all year. Figuring out how Davis fits in as his offensive game expands will be a work in progress.
Expanding his arsenal in the post and off the dribble is where I’ll be interested in watching Davis’ progress this season from an offensive perspective. Defensively... well that's harder to pin down. Confirming the conventional belief that Davis is the defensive force many of us believe him to be is easier said than done. Davis' raw block and steal numbers help. Davis led the league in blocks per game (2.8), just edging out Ibaka.
Steals per game is a weird stat and is probably perfectly exemplified by Davis. He averages 1.3 per game, which is a respectable number, especially for a center. Still, that's less than Harden, Kyrie, and Deron Williams, guys not known for their defensive prowess. At the same time, Davis is as good a bet as any to be the next player to accomplish the 5X5 (at least five point, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals in one game). That reputation is not solely driven by narrative. Davis has had 22 games with 3 or more steals over the last two seasons.
Take all of that into consideration and it's clear that steals are a tough way to measure defensive impact. Blocks are a bit more indicative, but they don't tell the whole picture. We just don't have a definitive way to measure an individual player's effectiveness on the defensive side of the ball. The very best and most impactful defensive players haven’t been identified by individual statistics. Many times they are both products of and catalysts for elite defensive systems. Think Garnett for the 2007-08 Celtics or Dwight for the 2008-09 Magic or even Ibaka for the 2012-13 Thunder.
Thus far, Davis hasn’t had that type of impact on his team’s defense. At least not consistently. The Pelicans were ranked 28th in Def Rating (points per 100 possessions) in 2012-13 and 27th last year. It’s hard to tell how much of that is Davis, how much is his teammates (besides Aminu, he didn’t play with an above average defender almost at all last season due to Jrue’s injuries), and how much is Monty Williams and his system.
This off-season, the Pelicans brought in Asik to pair with Davis in the front court and boost their porous defense. Asik is a proven defensive stalwart who will protect the rim behind Davis. That’s key because Monty has insisted on having Davis hedge hard on pick and rolls which takes him far away from the basket. In previous iterations of this team Jason Smith was their most effective rim protector in those situations. Asik is an upgrade. If the Pelicans defense doesn’t improve dramatically, Monty will likely get blamed before Davis. (Note: In fairness to Monty, there's been talk during training camp of the implementation of some of Coach Thibs principles he's gleaned from the Team USA process. That would mean less hedging for Davis).
Even the most talented defensive players typically struggle as rookies. Combine that with the injury-plagued roster that often forced the 13-14’ Pelicans to incorporate defensive liabilities to play much larger roles than expected and you can see why the results haven’t been there from the team defensive perspective. Davis has also shown flashes of his future dominance. Sure Davis led the league in blocks per game at 2.8 per game, but let’s examine that a little closer. In the Pelicans’ 29 wins (in which Davis played), he averaged 3.62 blocks per game and the team had an excellent 99.7 Def rating. In the 38 losses (in which Davis played), he averaged 2.21 blocks per game and the team had a lowly 113.1 Def rating.
Look at those numbers once more. The Pelicans were 29-38 with Davis in the lineup. The biggest concern there: 67 games. Davis played 67 games last season and 64 during his rookie season. Sure Davis finished last season 4th in PER, but until he plays 82 games in a season he just can’t be considered elite. The expectation is that Davis will carry the torch from LeBron and Durant as the league’s best player, but LeBron has averaged only 4 missed games in his 11 year career and Durant only 2.3 in his 7 years.
Before we can even begin to consider Davis in that type of esteem we need to see more of him, both on the court every night, but also on our TV’s. Davis will be playing in the second league this season. The one the NBA doesn’t want to market for some reason. That was a curious decision last season, but this season that seems downright foolish. If you get a chance to watch maybe the most promising young star in the NBA this year, be sure to take it.
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