2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Serge Ibaka

Credit:  Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images

Last season, the Oklahoma City Thunder were matched up against the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.  It was exactly the matchup we expected all season long.  The Spurs, however, did fall into some luck.  While OKC was enduring one of the most physical series of last year's playoffs against Memphis, the Spurs were matched up against the worst defense of all the playoff teams in the Dallas Mavericks.  Sure that series went 7 games, but I won’t accept the argument that the Thunder didn’t exert more energy, physically and mentally, to advance to the second round than the Spurs did.  

In that second round, OKC was matched up against the Clippers, maybe the largest threat to derailing the predetermined OKC-SA Conference Finals.  The Clippers were dealing with a lot, I’ll concede that, but the Spurs pulled a hare out of a cowboy hat and drew the best possible matchup for them by meeting the most inexperienced playoff team in the West (Portland) and by avoiding the horrible match up that Dwight Howard would have been for them.  And so, we had our showdown.  Maybe the 'real' NBA Championship considering how good the West was last season.  And unfortunately, OKC had to start the series without one of it’s most important weapons: Serge Ibaka.

After going down two games, Ibaka returned in Game 3 of the series.  He was able to simultaneously ease in and immediately impact the game.  He started by knocking down a few mid-range jumpers.  Simple, those were falling.  Then came a block on a Tiago Splitter drive to the basket.  Then another jumper.  Then a challenge at the rim that sent the great Tim Duncan packing.  And then a pump fake, show-and-go, running floater that was reminiscent of a Tony Parker tear drop.  And the place went bonkers.  Absolutely crazy.  One of the most fun moments of the playoffs last season.  Here, see for yourself:

It was obviously fueled by adrenaline as Ibaka averaged only 11.5 points, 5.25 rebounds, and 3.25 blocks during that series, all below his normal production (excluding blocks).  He was coming back from a strained calf suffered in Game 6 in the previous series against the Clippers.  Sure, nobody is 100% in May and June in the NBA, but Ibaka was injured.  He played through it to the best of his abilities, but he can be so much more impactful in a more consistent manner over the course of a series.  This season, Ibaka is going to demonstrate that to the world.  I think this is the season that OKC gets their title; and I think the reason they do is Serge Ibaka.

When OKC decided to trade James Harden in the highly criticized move, they only considered that option because they had Ibaka.  The 24th pick in the 2008 NBA draft, Ibaka came to the NBA as a 20-year-old rookie.  From the Congo, Ibaka had spent enough time playing professionally in Spain to get noticed by NBA scouts and naturalize as a Spanish citizen to play for their national team.  As a rookie he averaged 6.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks in 18.1 minutes off the bench for a burgeoning Thunder team.  Since then, his role has continued to expand both defensively and offensively and his numbers have steadily increased.

Although Ibaka was billed as a project offensively, he was more skilled than you might think.  His shot and range has obviously developed, but if you go back and look at his early shooting numbers, they weren’t half bad.  His improvement has allowed him to become a legitimate offensive weapon though.  The Russell Westbrook-Ibaka pick and pop is an absurdly indefensivable action on a basketball court.  Put Kevin Durant in the short corner on that play and good luck stopping it.  If the big helps out enough to keep Westbrook from launching himself to the basket (which would require reacting too early in most cases), Ibaka is left wide open for his patented jump shot.  If the big ‘sticks’ to Ibaka at all, Westbrook will be unleashing holy hell on whatever poor chap decides they might want to stop him.

The jump shot is Ibaka’s bread and butter.  534 of his 978 field goal attempts last season were jumpers.  At least 90% of all shots Ibaka took outside of 8 feet were assisted field goals. Ibaka is the quintessential pick and pop player offensively.  He’s also extending his range.  After making 2 out of 6 3-pointers in his first three seasons (total), Ibaka has made 20 and 23 3-pointers his last two seasons and increased his 3PT% to a stellar 38% last year.  He’s still used that shot sparingly as it continues to develop, which is just fine, and his favorite spot is the left corner 3 where he shot 14 of 39 (35%) in OKC’s offense last season.  Keep an eye on that shot.  I would expect Ibaka increases his attempts from there as he’s become more comfortable.

Ibaka certainly isn’t a number one scorer.  He can’t carry an offense.  He’s also on a team with two of the best scorers in the league.  He doesn’t have to.  He’s the ultimate 3 and D guy, or the power forward version of that.  A complimentary offensive player that can shoot consistently who makes his biggest impact on the defensive side of the ball.  And on defense, he is a game changer, who was on the All-Defensive 1st team each of the last three seasons.

I agree with Zach Lowe (point # 12),  Ibaka wins Defensive Player of the Year, although it may be his offense that improves more significantly.  With that increase in production (especially early, with Durant out) comes exposure.  All of these league awards are so driven by narrative. It’s not that he’ll necessarily be more deserving to get DPOY this year than any of the last couple, but I do think he gets his due (official) recognition in this season.

Ibaka led the league with 219 blocks last season.  He allowed an Opponent’s FG% at the rim of 45%.  That’s not quite in the lofty territory that Hibbert resided in last season (an unfathomable 41%), but puts him in line with some of the best rim protectors in the game such as Andrew Bogut (45.6%) and Taj Gibson (44.9%).  Not surprisingly, the Thunder as a team were second in Opponent’s FG% at the rim behind the Pacers and just above the Warriors.  As Ibaka has improved as the anchor of their defense, the Thunder have become one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  In his second year, they were 15th in Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions); his third year, they were 11th;  two years ago they climbed to 4th, and last season they settled at 6th.  

Again, it’s part of the reason the Thunder chose to deal Harden away.  They had two of the best scorers in the world, and he was a potential defensive anchor for them.  He fit what they were building perfectly, and this season, we’ll see why.  I believe Ibaka will find a way to make his first All-Star game this season, even in the loaded West.  One of the great things about Ibaka is he’s never had any qualms about being the third best player on his team.  As he’s developed into an offensive threat, he’s never infringed on the rest of the team.  He’s never introduced his new skills before they were ready.  I think we’ll see a bit more of Ibaka being featured offensively this season.  A bit more in the post and a bit more show and go (only 64 drives all season last year). This is the year for Oklahoma City, and Serge Ibaka is the reason why.