2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Marc Gasol

Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph
(photo credit not found)

Marc Gasol has single-handedly validated the Pau Gasol trade for the Memphis Grizzlies. Never have two brothers been traded for each other in NBA history, and rarely have the draft rights to second-round picks been the foundation of a trade for a franchise player before. The trade was decisively derided as the Grizzlies giving away talent to the big-market Los Angeles Lakers, as the other pieces to the trade were Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie, and two first round picks that each became the #28 picks in the 2008 and 2010 NBA Drafts. Marc Gasol, meanwhile, would return to his adopted-home in Memphis after his “college” years in his home country of Spain, and, six seasons later, will assuredly hit free agency next summer before re-signing with the Memphis Grizzlies. 

Gasol finds himself in a similar situation to LaMarcus Aldridge with the Portland Trail Blazers or Rajon Rondo of the Boston Celtics as he enters free agency in 2015. Due to restrictive guidelines on extensions to veteran contracts under the new CBA, free agents-to-be have no real incentive – or even ability, sometimes – to negotiate with the organization during the season, and are forced to enter free agency first and then re-sign to the five-year max-contract.  Removing the contract extension option from small-market franchises creates additional risk and uncertainty in trying to retain franchise free agents, and puts even more pressure on the organizations to build competitive situations around those players.

Marc Gasol, Lausanne Collegiate School
(New York Times)

The Memphis Grizzlies have seemingly done everything right in their development and handling of Marc Gasol in his six-year career. Gasol’s familiarity with the organization goes back to 2001, when a seven-foot, 16-year old Marc moved with his family to the Memphis area after his older brother signed his first professional contract with the club. Pau was the franchise guy for the Grizzlies almost immediately, averaging 17.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 2.1 blocks in 36.7 minutes per game and taking the 2001-02 Rookie of the Year Award, while Marc dominated the high school competition with his all-around game and near-300 lb. frame. He’d refine his game and body in his five years in Spain – for FC Barcelona, Girona, and the Spanish National team - and returned to Memphis in 2008 after general manager Chris Wallace made the historic Gasol-for-Gasol trade.

Pau’s tenure with the Grizzlies ended relatively-well, as far as trade requests and impending rebuilds go, as “the team simply [did] not have the talent to compete at a level that would deflect criticism from Gasol.” He was granted his trade to a contender and would win consecutive-titles with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2009 and 2010, while Wallace was given the green light from (late) owner Mark Heisley to target the younger Gasol. Marc signed his first professional deal in Memphis, also, and was given minutes and opportunities early in his Grizzlies career.

Gasol made adjustments right away at the NBA-level, limiting his fouls as a rookie big man (3.2 fouls per game) and playing all 82 games, starting all-but seven. The team cycled through three head coaches before hiring Lionel Hollins and won 24 games, but featured a solid, young core with Marc, O.J. Mayo, and Darrell Arthur in their rookie seasons, Mike Conley entering his second season, and Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowry in their third years. Marc averaged 11.9 points and 7.4 boards in 30.7 minutes per game, on 53% from the floor, and made the second All-Rookie team.

In the offseason, Wallace bought extremely low on power forward Zach Randolph, trading Quentin Richardson to the New York Knicks for “ZBo”, straight-up, and the team responded with a 40-42 record. It was the same summer that the team signed Allen Iverson to come off the bench, until he promptly retired in early November. The two signings were both high-variance moves that either succeeded or failed spectacularly, but it showed ambition from the GM to add veteran talent to a roster that was still young and impressionable. Signing guard Tony Allen in the summer of 2010 helped to form the “Grit and Grind” culture, just as the young players were developing.

Rudy Gay signed his outrageous extension that summer and averaged just under 20 points per game, ZBo averaged just over 20, and the Marc Gasol/Mike Conley/Tony Allen trifecta led the team to the 9^th-ranked defense in the league (by defensive rating). Gasol again played 80+ games after missing 13 in 2009-10, but his point and rebound averages fell back to his rookie levels (11.7/7). The first two years following the ZBo signing saw Marc’s usage rate also drop a few digits, as he learned how to play with a high-usage, frontcourt teammate (career 26.7% usage for Randolph) who probably stole some of Marc’s rebounds (with Zach's 12.2 rebounds per game in ’10-11). On offense the two complemented each other well, and their high-post/low-post ball-movement and X-cuts in the paint were propelled by Marc’s passing and Zach’s shot-making abilities.

The roster moves and trust from Memphis management paid off in the 2011 playoffs, as the Gasol/ZBo front-line and the teams’ aggressive defense helped survive a season-ending Rudy Gay injury and scrap an eighth-seed in the Western Conference playoffs, and an upset of the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs. Just the second 8-over-1 upset in the NBA’s history, the stylistic mismatch of the Memphis Grizzlies’ tough, rugged defense against the transitioning, Euro-style Spurs offense won the series in six games, and would solidify the team’s identity and culture going forward. Their bulk and defensive-skills made them tough match-ups for every opponent, and the team took the Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games in the Conference Semi-Finals before being eliminated.

Marc Gasol signed a contract extension during the lockout of 2011, keeping him in Memphis for the next four seasons. Even then he was adamant that he would stay in Memphis long-term, which is the appropriate response after upsetting Tim Duncan’s San Antonio Spurs in your playoff debut. He’d average 14.6 points per game in 2011-12 – because it was an even-ended season – and 8.9 boards (with 1.9 blocks) but his shooting percentage dropped to 48.2%, a ten-point drop from the 2009-10 season. The team won 62% of its games but lost in seven in the first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Marc Gasol 2012-13 shot chart
(courtesy of nyloncalculus.com)

Gasol won the Defensive Player of the Year Award for the 2^nd-ranked defense in the league in 2012-13, and the Grizzlies would win 56 games and reach the Western Conference Finals. Marc played another 80 game season and averaged 14.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.7 blocks on 49.4% from the floor, setting career-highs in PER (19.5), assist percentage (19.1), and win shares (6.1 offensive, 5.4 on defense). He finished second in the league in defensive win shares and dominated defensively in subtle ways - by stepping out to guard on the pick-and-roll, to positioning (hip-checking) his body on drives, or recognizing opponents’ play-calls. 

His development into the best defensive player in basketball came in the second-year of his big-money extension and fifth in the NBA, and helped Memphis peak in a season where GM Chris Wallace broke up more of the Grizzlies core. It began with the non-tendering of a contract to free agent-O.J. Mayo in the summer of 2012 and culminated in the Rudy Gay trade in March of 2013, as Wallace looked to trim long-term salary while shoring up the depth of the roster. The loss of the two wings were manage-able for most of their playoff run, as the team succeeded in their Revenge Tour against the Los Angeles Clippers and the (now-Russell Westbrook-less) Oklahoma City Thunder, but the Spurs of 2013 were too deep and efficient to overcome without a shot-creator from the wing. Marc increased his scoring to over 17 points per game in the 2013 playoffs, sacrificing some accuracy (45.4%), in the absence of Gay’s 17.2 points per game.

2013-14 was a season disrupted by injuries. Marc sprained the MCL in his left knee in late-November and would miss 22 games in the middle of the season, returning in mid-January. The team initially struggled out of the gate, going 7-7 before Gasol injured his knee. The struggles continued, with a 10-12 record in the absence of their starting center, but his return prompted the team to finish the season on a 33-13 run and a 50-32 overall record. The Grizzlies drew the seventh-seed in the West and their familiar foes from OkC, and took a healthy-Thunders team to seven games before losing the first round series.

The Grizzlies had a beef in losing that Oklahoma City series, as ZBo was suspended for the deciding-Game 7 after throwing a “punch” at Steven Adams. It surely won’t be the last time in his young career that Adams will troll an opponent into violence and a suspension, but Randolph’s presence was especially devastating - as Mike Miller started at power forward in his place and scored just three points in the 11-point loss. Memphis still gave their opponents a first-round scare, and the perimeter additions made by Wallace in 2014 will help Marc Gasol lead the team to another deep playoff run in the 2014-15 season.

(just for fun, here's Tony Allen's shot chart)

Moving Gay and not re-signing Mayo allowed Wallace to allocate some payroll resources to overall depth on the wing, instead of concentrating it on two players. First he re-signed Tony Allen for four years, $20 million, keeping him in Memphis into his mid-30’s. Forward Quincy Pondexter provided some corner-three-point shooting and defensive skills in the 2013 playoffs and re-signed to a four-year, $15 million extension early last season, before suffering a stress fracture in his foot and missing the rest of the season. 

Wallace then acquired Courtney Lee in a trade with Boston, taking on the three years and $16 million left on his contract, and getting 30 minutes per game of two-way play as the starting two-guard. Tayshaun Prince’s combined-$15 million over the 2013-15 seasons was the cost of clearing Gay’s contract, and he somehow started 76 games last season, despite providing no spacing options and with declining defensive and play-making skills.

Vince Carter 2013-14 Dallas Mavericks shot chart

Mike Miller had a bounce-back season on the cheap for the Grizzlies after being amnestied by the Miami Heat last year, inadvertently setting LeBron’s Return in motion, but will cede his “Old Man Gunner” role to Vincent Lamar Carter in 2014-15. The former-“Vinsanity” will be 37 this season and doesn’t offer nearly the same catch-and-shoot efficiency as Miller, but can do more on either side of the ball. His numbers with the Dallas Mavericks last season weren’t pretty, with 11.9 points on 40.7% shooting, but his career-37.8% mark on three-pointers will help the Memphis offense, along with his 21.1%-career assist percentage. Asking him to start, or play 30 or more minutes a night, might be unreasonable.

Jordan Adams 2013-14 UCLA shot chart

Rookie shooting guard Jordan Adams was an effective, all-around scorer for the UCLA Bruins but struggled as a pure catch-and-shoot player. His intelligence and hustle skills will endear him to head coach Dave Joerger and he should force his way into the wing rotation early this season. There were other wing options available at #22 in the loaded-2014 Draft that were more-limited offensively and could really shoot the ball, but the organization saw the upside and analytical value of Jordan Adams. Second-round pick (#35) Jarnell Stokes will eventually play his way into the power forward rotation, and grab every rebound in sight. Expect the 6’8”, 260 lb. Stokes to be a fan-favorite in The Grindhouse this season, in his limited-minutes.

Which, quite tangentially, might I add, brings the conversation back to Marc Gasol, and the excellent job that Memphis Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace has done in building the team around him, as Gasol approaches the dreaded free agency summer. He’ll have plenty of suitors in July of 2015, in at least three major markets in need of franchise centers: New York, Los Angeles, and Boston. Any smaller-market organization would be sweating out the New York Knicks rumors already, but unless the exploding salary cap allows a team to reassemble the roster from Spain's 2012 Olympic team, Memphis still offers the best situation.

Professionally, Memphis has provided a stable environment in which to develop his game. Marc Gasol and point guard Mike Conley are the two remaining pieces of that early-Memphis core, who have both grown into leaders on the court and especially on the defensive end. A valuable pick-and-roll point guard who loves to play the passing lanes, Conley provides some spot-up shooting and can play off-the-ball while Gasol initiates from the high post. Marc and ZBo have forged one of the NBA’s biggest and most effective frontcourts, but also a friendship and a shared love of the city. New owner Robert Pera purchased the team from the Heisley family in 2012, but otherwise the team has been one of the more stable and conservative franchises in the league, with Chris Wallace still making basketball decisions (in some capacity) since 2007.

The role players and complementary talent on the Grizzlies roster should be some of the deepest of Gasol’s career. The wings lack the upside of a Rudy Gay but there are some shooting options who can play on both sides of the ball, from a returning-Pondexter, to Courtney Lee, to maybe Vince Carter. All positions besides maybe point guard (with Nick Calathes suspended) go two or three deep with talent, and the Grizzlies could realistically replicate their 56-win 2012-13 season. They have the pieces to again post a top-five defense, but with a healthy-Marc Gasol a prerequisite. Memphis finished 40-20 with their starting center in the lineup last season, and will improve upon their seventh-seed by the end of the 2014-15 season.

In a summer dominated by LeBron James’s free agency decision, the concept of home has taken on new prominence among NBA All-Stars. The league regulates player salaries and limits free agent decisions to external factors, from state sales taxes to favorable climate, and the allure of playing for your home-town team, in front of family, friends, and neighbors, varies in each player. It’s why the Washington Wizards are probably already working on their pitch to Kevin Durant in 2016, but yet ultimately irrelevant in persuading Chris Bosh to return to Texas.

As to making assumptions into Marc Gasol’s personal situation, he’ll never truly be able to "go home" and play in the NBA, but Memphis has been the second-closest for the majority of his adult life, since coming to live with his older brother in 2001. In that sense it was unfortunate to see Pau sign with the Bulls this offseason, as it deprived the NBA community of a Gasol Brothers starting-frontcourt for the Memphis Grizzlies (just think of the passing!) After getting married last year he’s begun his own family in Memphis, with perhaps Little Wendigos in the future. He’ll have max-contract offers to choose from a variety of franchises next summer, but the chance to return to the Western Conference Finals with the only franchise he’s ever known will be tough for Marc Gasol to turn down.