Chris and Paul begin by previewing Tuesday’s Warriors/Pacers game, the Jerry Colangelo hire in Philadelphia, and then a bit on the Minnesota Timberwolves, Utah Jazz, and the surprising Charlotte Hornets. As usual, they end on pop culture talk, as Chris continues catching up on The Leftovers and Paul describes his latest Netflix binge series.
Chris and Paul continue their contract-extension conversation from last week’s podcast by discussing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s new deal with the Charlotte Hornets, and then transition to their potential bottom-five teams in the 2015-16 season. They end by previewing the season finale of the debut season of USA’s Mr. Robot, and briefly talk about Adult Swim’s Rick and Morty and Paul’s foray back into the world of “Serial” with the “Undisclosed” podcast.
Chris and Paul discuss Steve Nash’s retirement for the first ten minutes of the podcast, and then break down the field for the Western and Eastern Conference’s last couple of playoff spots.
What do you think of Minnesota’s strategy of selling veterans for draft picks, while simultaneously trading picks for young talent already in the NBA? Is this a strategy that other, rebuilding teams should adopt - most notably the Boston Celtics, with tons of future draft considerations and a couple of solid veterans on the roster? Is it kind of genius to trade draft picks down the line for discounted talent today, or counter-productive for teams that are years away from contention?
How about for a young team with years of lottery experience, like the Charlotte Hornets? Is the risk of trading draft picks mitigated by their proximity to the playoffs?
Chris and Paul spend the entirety of Episode 52 thinking of trades that should happen before the NBA’s trade deadline on February 19th (but probably won’t), and the teams and players that need a trade the most.
The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.
Story going online now co-scribed with @NotoriousOHM: ESPN sources say Nets have made D-Will, Brook Lopez & Joe Johnson available via trade
— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) December 9, 2014
Paul: We talked about trades a bit on last week’s podcast, but it seems we’re not the only ones anxious for the NBA’s trade season to unofficially begin. Under a week from the December 15th mark on the NBA calendar, when free agents signed over the summer become eligible for trade, and it’s not a surprise that the trade speculation has escalated, with the Dion Waiters for Kosta Koufos rumor picking up a couple of days ago and now the report from Steiny Mo and Ohm Youngmisuk.
So, Chris, let’s focus this week’s Give and Go on trades, and I’ll put a couple of questions to you. First, is there any chance one of the Nets’ “Big 3” get moved this season? And which fake trade would you make to start the the NBA’s trade season?
Chris: I’ll start with the Nets ‘Big 3’. Almost minutes after that Steiny Mo tweet I saw multiple members of basketball twitter submit their trade machine screenshots sending Brook Lopez to the Celtics. You’ve watched him closer than I have this season as you cover the Nets for Brooklyn’s Finest, so you can probably speak to it better than I can, but my immediate reaction was, ‘Please no!’. In theory, Brook provides the foundational center the Celtics are sorely lacking, but between the injury history and my belief that all Brook would do is slow this Celtics team down, I’m completely out on that scenario.
Deron has been playing well this season and if there’s ever a time to attempt to unload him, it’s now. Going into the season, multiple members of the Starters called Deron the worst contract in the league. I’m not sure that’s true anymore, although it’s certainly not good. The point guard market is bare, but maybe there are teams that would bite on a deal. Could Dallas put together a package that keeps its core intact and brings Deron in to soak up the Ray Felton/Jameer Nelson minutes? Maybe the Nets could convince the Knicks to make another panic move? I’m not sure, but Deron, averaging 17.1 points and 6.5 assists and shooting over 40% from 3-point range, has the most value he’s had in possibly 18 months.
Joe Johnson has real value now. He’s a bona fide scorer that has great size at either wing position. The contract is big, but it’s only for this year and next and comes off the books just in time for the new television deal to kick in, which is just what many teams want. Maybe a Lance for Joe Johnson swap could be the base of a deal if Charlotte really doesn’t have the patience? The Cavs or Clippers would love to get their hands on Joey J, but I don’t think they have the pieces to make the deal happen. I wouldn’t mind a Johnson-Jeff Green swap for the C’s. They’d give up cap space this summer for next summer, but they’d also get the fourth quarter scorer they so desperately need. That would make the C’s better though, and I’m still not sure they know if they want that yet. Indiana would also be a great candidate for Joe Johnson. What about a deal like this:
The Pacers would have to part with George Hill, but in my opinion, Donald Sloan and Solomon Hill have played solid enough to make that feasible. Johnson brings some ball-handling from the wing as well. Moving Mahinmi might make the Pacers nervous so that’s why I included Plumlee, who doesn’t seem to be on Lionel Hollins’s best side. It seems like Jerome Jordan is getting more playing time than was expected. More options would open up after December 15th when someone like C.J. Miles and his $4 million plus contract could be used, maybe instead of Scola.
The weird thing is that these two teams are currently battling for the 8 seed in the East, but if the Nets are so intent on blowing it up, who am I (a Celtics fan with a dog in the fight) to get in their way, right? What do you think? Can the Nets move one of the big three? And what other deals do you think can/should/will get done in the coming months?
Paul:I’ve had to watch Brook Lopez play basketball every game for the last month-plus and my reaction to the Boston Celtics trading for Bropez is about the same. The Celtics need an athletic, shot-blocking presence at the rim, and, ironically, so do the Nets. Brook is currently out for the week with a back strain and has already missed the first week of the season with a random foot issue, and a player option next season at almost $17 million creates further uncertainty as to his future status in any trade. If he’s healthy enough to play well he opts out of his contract next summer and seeks a max deal, or he’s hurt and takes up a significant chunk of your cap as he again works his way back from injury. Good offensive centers are scarce, but Brook’s lack of foot speed and limited athleticism should scare enough teams away.
Deron Williams is in a similar situation, although he’s far enough removed from his own ankle injuries to have shown flashes of his former dominance. He’s been Brooklyn’s best, most consistent, player by far and already has a Player of the Week award to his credit this season, but I’m not sure if his trade value around the league is as high as the Nets are hoping, given his salary over the next two seasons and his injury history. The teams that are looking to upgrade at point guard, teams like the Los Angeles Lakers or Sacramento Kings, might not necessarily have the contracts to match back to Brooklyn or the draft picks to deal.
Which brings up the larger point to this exercise, and that’s what Brooklyn’s motivation is in all of this. The team already has almost-$80 million committed to next season’s payroll, and owes two first-round picks to Boston over the next three seasons and the rights to a pick swap in the 2015 draft to the Atlanta Hawks. Outside of Bojan Bogdanovic and Mason Plumlee, who’s struggled hardcore in adjusting to Lionel Hollins’s new concepts, the team lacks any rotation players under-30 years old and under contract next season. Rebuilding, without your own draft picks, isn’t really an option, especially for a team owned (and possibly being sold) by Mikhail Prokhorov. Trading any of these pieces would have to be for depth, and to get younger and more athletic next season.
Joe Johnson is probably the most tradeable piece that general manager Billy King has made available, which is insane for a player who will make just under $25 million in 2015-16. Johnson’s been pretty bad ever since dropping the “selfish” comments before the teams’ three-game, West Coast road trip, but is still among the league’s best at closing out basketball games thanks to his “Iso Joe” abilities. There aren’t many two-guards in the league who can create their own shot, catch-and-shoot, and rebound well, without being a total trainwreck on defense, and Joey J could help a couple of teams.
Finding teams that can match salaries and give the Nets something back besides salary relief is another obstacle. There’s a great trolling-offer to be made around Amare Stoudemire’s expiring contract and Andrea Bargnani for Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez that would piss off both fan bases and cause half of my co-writers at BK’s Finest to quit in protest of having to recap Nets games. Joey J for Amare and Tim Hardaway Jr. works and gives both teams some pieces of value next season, but the Knicks are a mess and should probably focus on playing for a draft pick this year.
This is in no way original, in fact Jonah had the framework of this deal in his trade piece Wednesday, but Joe Johnson could really help the Charlotte Hornets, and they could have a shooting guard to swap after December 15th. I would love to provide the screen cap of my Trade Machine deal of Joe Johnson for Lance Stephenson, Marvin Williams, and Gerald Henderson, but unfortunately both Lance and Marvin are unable to move until the 15th, as they were summer free agent signings that have not worked out in Charlotte. We talked about how disappointing the team has been last week on the Give and Go, but Joe Johnson would immediately become the best shooting guard in franchise history and be able to open up space for Professor Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. Kemba is a good late-game closer in his own right, with a game-winner already under his belt this year, but would have to cede those responsibilities to Joe Johnson for the next two seasons.
Brooklyn would get a flawed-but-young, former New York high school hero in Lance Stephenson in return, who’s under contract for the next three seasons and has struggled in shooting the ball for the Hornets. He’d be able to run the offense more in Brooklyn and have actual shooters to kick to, like Deron, Bojan, and Mirza Teletovic, while helping out on the boards and giving the roster some much-needed athleticism. Marvin Williams would come off the bench at power forward or get flipped before the deadline (or Kevin Garnett?), while Gerald Henderson would rival incumbent-Alan Anderson as my personal least-favorite player to watch on the roster.
The Nets might be able to do better than Lance Stephenson and Marvin Williams, but I doubt Joe Johnson’s true value is anywhere close to Billy King’s expectations of that value. Due to the age, struggles, injury histories, and cost of Brooklyn’s “Big 3”, any trade would return another team’s headache, and the Nets are at a weird position going forward, without any draft picks but with an old and expensive roster. Given the nature of the Brooklyn Nets organization, the leaks and rumors and daily drama should be fun to monitor throughout the winter, but the NBA trade season has begun.
Chris and Paul cover a bunch of NBA teams in about 40 minutes, starting with the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors, and then talk some Serial, True Detective, and other random podcasts and TV shows.
The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.
Paul: We’ve entered the sixth week of the NBA’s 2014-15 season, and I feel like we can finally start looking at the stats and numbers without the small sample size caveat. Teams that found themselves struggling for the first few weeks of the season have begun to figure some things out (or vice versa), and maybe we’re at a point that we can revisit some of our preseason predictions and re-evaluate. So I’m wondering, which team(s) are you ready to admit that you were wrong about heading into this season, for better or worse?
Chris: That’s actually kind of difficult. As you mentioned, we’re dangerously close to a point where small sample size loses it’s steam. Although, if you look back at last season, teams like Toronto and Brooklyn, and even Indiana and Portland to some degree, showed that a lot can happen between January 1st and the end of April. But things have already started to level off a little bit this season. I picked the Clippers to have the best record in the West for the regular season and after three weeks that looked ridiculous. But today, even though they are 7th in the West after five straight wins, they’re only three wins back of first. If I posed this question to you two weeks ago or even last week, you might have said that you were way off in thinking Denver was a frisky playoff contender, but they’ve won 8 of 10 and are a half game out of the 8 spot.
Charlotte’s too obvious (and I thought they might struggle, though not this much) so I’m actually going to go with Phoenix. Don’t get me wrong, I loved watching the Suns last season, but they got a career year out of Goran Dragic that I didn’t think was possible to replicate even before Isaiah Thomas was brought in. They lost Channing Frye, one of their most reliable big men, and so many of their role players from last year had career seasons (Gerald Green, P.J. Tucker, The Morris Twins). I didn’t expect them to fall apart completely, but I thought they would have a 2013 Minnesota-like, 40-42 season, never really having a chance at the playoffs.
That’s not the case. Phoenix will be in the mix until April and that race for the 8 seed is going to be crazy. OKC will be charging with Durant and Westbrook both playing this week. As I mentioned, Denver could be in the mix if their play continues (especially Ty Lawson), and you have young upstarts in Sacramento and New Orleans that are going to hang around. Phoenix has withstood poor starts by both their star point guards to cling to that 8th seed in an insanely difficult West all amid ‘media reports’ swirling as Isaiah Thomas comes off the bench and wins Phoenix games. Thomas and Green have been dynamic, combining to average 29.9 points per game and an outlandish 47.7 points per 36 minutes. Markieff Morris has been great as a starter, averaging 14.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, and they’ve even gotten some really solid contributions out of second year center Alex Len, adding to their already gluttonous depth at a position of need on the bench unit.
I’ve been impressed with Phoenix’s resolve. At the start of the season, I saw them as a regression candidate, but now I see them as a young team that continues to develop and would love to get some playoff experience much like last season’s Wizards. What were you wrong about?
Paul: Well, you mean besides picking Russell Westbrook to win the MVP award, and leaving Elfrid Payton off of both of my All-Rookie teams? I’ll try to stick to teams, though.
First off, we, and every other NBA writer and prognosticator, will probably be wrong on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Injuries suck. Russell came back last week and Kevin Durant is mere hours away from making his season debut and shredding Tyreke Evans and John SaLOLmons. I have no doubt a healthy Thunder squad will play .600 basketball in the next few months and will present major match-up issues if they finish with a #7 or 8 seed in the Western Conference. So maybe the Thunder won’t be a top-three seed, like most of us assumed in the preseason and before all the injuries hit, but they will be a playoff team, and watching KD and Russ play with a “sense of urgency” to overcompensate for the team’s 4-12 record in their absence should be amazing.
This whole exercise could look foolish if we look back on it in a couple of months, much as it would have last season after burying the Nets, Raptors, and Grizzlies early into the schedule. I liked Denver’s depth enough to think they could finish over .500 and claim the 9th spot in the West, ala “last year's Phoenix Suns”, and even though they’ve battled back to win 8 of their last 10 games, Ty Lawson really needs to play like an All-Star for this team to reach that level.
I’m a bit hesitant to claim the same with the Charlotte Hornets, in case they make a trade or get Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back healthy and go on a run, but 10 games under .500 by December 1st is a tough hole to climb out of, especially for a team that can’t score. Lance Stephenson and Kemba Walker haven’t really gelled yet in the same backcourt, and neither are great catch-and-shoot players who can spot up off of the others’ drives, but head coach Steve Clifford has to get the team back to shutting off the paint and playing top-10 defense. I’m optimistic that Rich Cho can add another shooter throughout the season, whether a minor piece or a starter-type, but if last season's defensive dominance was a fluke then it’ll be a long season in Charlotte.
On the optimistic side of the spectrum, the Sacramento Kings have been everybody’s surprise team after the first couple of weeks, but injuries to DeMarcus “BOOGIE!” Cousins and Rudy Gay have sapped some of the acclaim, as they’ve lost their last three games and 6 of their last 10. They’re about average to slightly-below on both sides of the ball, but leading the league in rebounding percentage and free throw attempts per game. Younger pieces like Darren Collison and Ben McLemore have shown signs of competence, along with steady veteran big men Reggie Evans and Chuck Hayes. Talk about another team that could use a shooter, though…
Finally, I was wrong about the Portland Trail Blazers, but especially their offseason additions. I had Terry Stotts’s squad as my regression candidate in the Western Conference, falling to the 8th seed after finishing 5th last season, due mostly to my high esteem for the rest of the conference and unfavorable opinion of Steve Blake and Chris Kaman to back up at the point guard and center positions, respectively. Instead, Kaman is averaging 11.1 points and 7.2 boards (in just 19.3 minutes) on 50.6% shooting, while Blake is still struggling shooting the ball (4.4 points on 34.8% on 2’s and 31.5% on 3’s) but is averaging 4.5 assists in 22.1 minutes per game. Wes Matthews has been exceptional so far in his contract year (18.8 points with 61.1/40.9/66.7 triple-slash percentages), along with team leaders Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Nic Batum’s injury was mostly offset by bench players like C.J. McCollum, Will “The Thrill” Barton, and even Meyers Leonard stepping up, and the Blazers sit at 13-4 with the 4th-ranked offense and 6th-best defense. The West is so good that the Blazers could still fall to the 8th seed by the end of the season, separated by merely a couple of games in the standings, but the team has improved its defense and depth from last season and look like a top-4 seed in the loaded Western Conference. My bad, Blazers fans.
Chris and Paul discuss four NBA teams through four weeks of the NBA season for the first 32 minutes of this weeks’ podcast, beginning with their “adopted teams” (Atlanta Hawks and Portland Trail Blazers) and their two “Give and Go” teams from this week (Los Angeles Clippers and Charlotte Hornets), before breaking down the Serial podcast from the This American Life series.
The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.
Paul:
Last week we discussed two teams with the best records in their conferences and their chances of finishing the season as their respective #1 seeds. It’s still early, but which teams’ records have surprised you as we enter the fourth week of the 2013-14 season?
Anthony Davis has been white hot out of the gate, somehow seeming to live up to the impossible hype surrounding him entering this season. In his first two games he posted stat lines of 26 points, 17 rebounds, and 9 blocks followed by a 31 point, 15 rebound, and 3 block performance. Last night Al Jefferson taught him some things though:
Normally, you might say that the veteran is teaching the youngster a lesson here, except that Al Jefferson was doing this to people almost immediately upon entering the league. When people talk about Big Al Jefferson and his post moves, this is what they are talking about.
Davis still had 24 and 13 in the 100-91 Pelicans win. Big Al had 20 and 5, but his move should be worth 4 points just for how pretty it is.
First of all, let me admit that I am probably a horrible
gambler, and the reason I’m writing this post is because the last $10 in my
SportsBetting.ag account is tied up in NFL future bets. If I suddenly stop
writing about NBA lines or gambling again after the NFL season ends in
late-December, that will probably mean that I’ve won my ‘over’ bets on the
Chargers (8 wins) and the Patriots (11), and you should be happy for me.
Since I can’t yet bet on these preseason props, I’ll write
about them instead. All bets are found in the ‘Future Props’ section on www.sportsbetting.ag, as are the odds
and payouts, and these are wagers I would be making if I had the funds with
which to make them. This method is much cheaper. I hope to make this a regular
feature on the blog, and as always, feedback and counter-arguments are
appreciated.
Chris and Paul spend the first 1:05 discussing the NBA's free agency period and Orlando and Las Vegas Summer Leagues and finish up the podcast by beginning their summer TV rewatch.
6’8” (7’1.25” wingspan), 263 lbs., 01/07/1994 (20 years old)
In the few hours since I told Chris that I would be taking Jarnell Stokes at #24 for the Charlotte Hornets, word has come down from The Man Himself that my pick essentially doesn’t matter and they might have already settled on Mitch McGary. I’m sure I’ll compare the two at some point in this piece but I’m okay with disagreeing on the player, because we agree on the team need at big man.
6’6” (6’8’ wingspan), 207 lbs, 10/07/1993 (20 years old)
This is probably my favorite pick in the draft as far as fit and how I feel about the player. I love Nik Stauskas and the Hornets need someone who can shoot the ball from the wing position desperately. They do have cap space and Simmons and Zach Lowe talked about the chance they roll the dice with Lance Stephenson. From a basketball standpoint that makes sense. Otherwise, no way.
One of the silver linings of the Bobcats (yes, they were still the Bobcast last year) on top of making the playoffs was how the players raved about playing for Steve Clifford. Clifford has done the impossible it seems, created a solid basketball culture in Charlotte. Al Jefferson probably helped, but lots of players were talking about the impact Clifford had in the locker room from day one. It took Michael Jordan how long to create that here in Charlotte? Why mess with it now? Besides, who’s to say that MKG can’t become some version of Lance Stephenson in two years anyway. Or you can draft Stauskas, who might not do the same things as Lance, but will be a hell of a lot cheaper over the next four years.
What I love about Stauskas is his all-around game. The Reddick comparison is a bit lazy and I think Stauskas will be much better.
From a pure shooting perspective Stauskas is undoubtedly one of the two best in the draft (McDermott is too good a shooter to call Stauskas the best). He posted an ungodly 1.51 points per possession on catch and shoot situations. He is far from a mere stand still shooter though. This is one of the things that separates him from Reddick coming out of college or a pure shooter like Korver. Stauskas is just as deadly off the dribble. He played in a pro-style offense for John Beilein at Michigan and is able to score in every conceivable way out of the pick n roll. He’s able to punish those who go under the screen (obviously), he can shoot the pull-up almost as effectively, he can split the pick, or simply get by bigs and he’s more athletic than you would think.
He has more size than Reddick as well at 6’6” with a 6’8” wingspan. He has great size for an NBA 2 guard. The combination of him, Henderson, and MKG on the wing gives you everything you need. His ability to handle the ball and his decision making will take pressure off of Kemba Walker and he will fit in great with Steve Clifford. It’s that ability to not only create for himself (he’s a threat to score anytime he has the ball anywhere inside 25 feet) but for others as well that separates him from Reddick. Reddick never had an assist/TO ratio much higher than 1. According to DraftExpress, Stauskas had a 2.6 A/TO ratio ranking him second among shooting guards in this class. That’s impressive. He has a great understanding of the game offensively.
I view Stauskas’ ceiling as Stephen Curry with a bit less range. That ability to score from almost anywhere if you give him daylight. What Stauskas will struggle with is creating that daylight for himself, but he’s great at utilizing the offense to get himself open instead of creating it on his own. He will without a doubt struggle defensively. That’s not a question, but that just makes this Charlotte Hornets fit even better. Steve Clifford was able to hide Al Jefferson on his way to molding a top ten defense. As we’ve seen with Curry, if the system is solid and there are defensive role players around him to cover up his mistakes, a player like Stauskas can function on a good defensive team and the Hornets are that team.
They better draft Nik Stauskas or I’ll be disappointed. It’s too good of a fit. Hopefully Michael Jordan doesn’t get enamored with Zach Lavine highlight clips.
Chad Ford has them taking McDermott over Stauskas while noting that in the workout Charlotte held, T. J. Warren absolutely destroyed McDermott. He also has Julius Randle slipping and being available for them if they choose. Maybe Jefferson and Randle occupy the same space a bit, but it’d be cool for Randle to learn under maybe the best post player in the league, no?
I’ve made my case. While the Hornets need outside shooting desperately, I feel Stauskas is more multi-dimensional than McDermott. Now having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised if McDermott was who they go with.
Crazy Draft Day Trade:
The Hornets are ready to make a splash, but remember they have cap space, so they don’t necessarily need to make a trade to do that. They want to build on their success last year and get this Hornets team to a level that the Bobcats never got to.
If we’re to believe he is available, does the # 9 pick, Cody Zeller, and some cap filler (McRoberts and Haywood?) nab them Horford?. In that scenario they would still need to find wing shooting, but there are some inexpensive options on the market (Anthony Morrow anyone?) and they’d still have #23 (maybe James Young or Rodney Hood falls). Horford and Jefferson might seem a bit redundant offensively, but I think Horford is versatile enough to make it work. I’m not sure Atlanta makes that deal though.
Maybe they do something simpler. Would you trade the # 9 pick for Gallinari? Would you try to trade for one of Phoenix’s three picks to continue to add pieces in a strong draft?
