2014-15 NBA Season Preview: The Chicago Bulls

AP Photo/Paul Beaty

I wanted to find an article to start this piece that would capture the general conclusion that is accepted by most knowledgeable NBA fans:  The Bulls owner, Jerry Reinsdorf is Cheap.  When I went looking for that article I was lost in a sea of criticism and could not find the story that captured the mindset perfectly.  Instead I drowned, because there are just too many examples of Reinsdorf not wanting to spend the extra money in any and all circumstances.  From rumors of not wanting to pay Michael Jordan (!), to the half-hearted swings and ‘misses’ in recent free agency talks (LeBron, then Carmelo), to not wanting to re-sign Luol Deng and dumping him during the season for nothing, to the Bulls reportedly being the most profitable NBA franchise consistently over the last ten years (sure it’s a great market, but it’s obvious Chicago controls it’s costs).  There’s just so much.  

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Rookie Week Picks

In the first week of our 2014-15 NBA Season Preview we took a look at some of the impact rookies entering the NBA. Our five candidates were all interesting, impact prospects from rebuilding teams, who should figure prominently into the Rookie of the Year race. Chris looked at Jabari Parker's NBA-ready game on Monday; Paul discussed Nerlens Noel's need for injury-free minutes while adjusting to a young 76ers team Tuesday; Wednesday was Dante Exum Day, as Chris projected his talents as a potential star guard; Marcus Smart was the subject of Thursday's piece from Paul on toughness; and Friday saw Rookie Week wrap up with Andrew Wiggins and how situation might suit him more in Minnesota.

In this week's podcast, we expanded upon our essays and looked at Parker, Noel, Exum, Smart, and Wiggins closer, but also within the context of their new environments and the talent around them. We also tried to address any other rookies on some of these rebuilding teams, before getting into our All-Rookie 1^st and 2^nd team lineups, and any honorable mentions and or sleepers for the 2015 Rookie of the Year Award.

We’ve tried to narrow down our lists to a few names for each category, but, really, this rookie class is so deep that the honorable mentions list is a legitimate-10 names deep. As always, there are plenty of rookies who struggle to adjust or earn minutes at the NBA level, just as there are second-round picks and undrafted free agents who fight for minutes and carve out roles in the pros. Here are our best guesses for the 2014-15 rookie class:

# 15 - Atlanta Hawks

Zach Lavine's vertical in pre-draft workout via @Lakers twitter feed

What I’d Do:

Zach Lavine

6’6” (6’8” wingspan), 181 lbs, 3/10/1995 (19 years old)

Sure, the Hawks were the worst 8 seed we’ve had in a while, but let’s not blame the Hawks, let’s put it on the rest of the East.  How about we blame the Knicks, Pistons, and Cavs for not being competent enough to catch the Hawks for that 8 seed.  Overall, the Hawks had a fairly successful season.  Without Horford for much of the year, Mike Budenholzer came in and installed his Spursian offense valuing passing (1st in the league in Assist %) and shooting (9th in TS% where the top 12 are all playoff teams).  

For the Hawks, so much has to do with what they do with Horford.  I’m not buying that he’s being shopped though.  They’d probably make a deal if someone presented them with something great, but I don’t think they’re making calls at this point.  I feel like they’re content with their talent and hoping from some internal growth.  They will have a little bit of cap space this summer, or they can roll it over and will have enough for a max guy next summer.  I’m not sure Atlanta is luring any huge names though.  At the very least it gives them flexibility to build out the current roster. 

Between being able to move the Joe Johnson contract, hiring Budenholzer, and the cost-efficient Millsap contract, Danny Ferry is on fire right now.  The one criticism you could make is that they were too good in a lost year without Horford.  Instead of a lottery pick they came away at # 15, but the chances of them moving up into the high lottery were unlikely and there isn’t much difference between pick 12 and 15.  The experience the team got and support after playing well in that one playoff series was well worth it.  Not to mention the playoff revenue for a team that sometimes struggles selling tickets.

Atlanta has a history of drafting foreign players lately (Schroder and Nogueira) and many mock drafts have them stashing a guy like Nurkic.  I don’t see it that way.  They just drafted a seven-footer in Nogueira last season and he may end up in a Hawks jersey as soon as this year.  I don’t see them repeating that.  The Hawks will always value shooting (they’d probably love if McDermott fell to them here), but I’d like to see them bring in some athleticism.

Zach Lavine is the Noah Vonleh of the mid-late first round.  He’s one of the youngest guys in the draft and his length and athleticism make him the ideal prospect.  He was a freshman on a UCLA team that was dominated by two sophomores that could go in the first round of this draft (Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson).  He’s shown glimpses of being a 6’6” point guard who can shoot with the athleticism of Gerald Green.  That’s tantalizing, especially at # 15.  

Lavine is certainly a project.  He has passing skills, but doesn’t have a great shot selection.  He needs to bulk up to help both his defense and his slashing ability. He gets pushed around going to the basket, when trying to rebound, and when defending.  Get him in the open court though and he is terrifying.  He’ll go by your whole team and dunk on you or kick it to the corner for an open 3.  He shot 37.5% from 3 with terrible shot selection.  The upside is there, and I’d pull the trigger if I were the Hawks.

What I Think They’ll Do:

I mentioned that I don’t think the Hawks select a foreign player to stash. If I’m being honest, I don’t really think they take Lavine either, although I think they should.  I think the Hawks are too concerned with shooting, and although Lavine has the potential to be a good shooter, his decision-making and shot selection leave a lot to be desired.  The Hawks are looking for smart players that can pass and shoot.  I think Rodney Hood is a good bet there, or James Young actually, and again, if McDermott lasts to them, they’ll take him and that might actually be a great fit for his development.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

I would love to see the Hawks get aggressive here, but it would involve them either trading Millsap or Horford.  I don’t think they are realistically considering dealing Horford and sending Millsap to a team like Boston, Sacramento, or the Lakers would probably diminish his value.  They have a pretty good cap situation over the next few years, it’d be a shame to compromise that just to trade up to pick 7 or 8.  

What if they try to use their pick to get an established guy instead?  Would Orlando say no the # 15 pick and the rights to Lucas Noguiera for Afflalo?  Afflalo is the type of player that would fit almost anywhere, but his shooting and perimeter defense would be so valuable to the Hawks.  Orlando might be able to pair Noguiera with Vucevic to protect the basket and would have three picks in the first #15.  This might not be the best offer Orlando gets, so that would be the downfall.  Embiid would definitely not be able to fall below 3 and Orlando would need to be really interested in Noguiera. 

# 13 Minnesota Timberwolves

via Joe Bielawa on Flickr

What I'd Do:

Doug McDermott

6’8” (6’9.5” wingspan), 218 lbs, 1/03/1992 (22 years old)

Oh Minnesota.  Sometimes I forget how much Minnesota fans have had to go through.  They haven't had to endure long stretches of failure like the Clippers once did and the Kings are trying to escape now (I'm sorry Kings fans). But if you consider that the TWolves have squandered two talents of the caliber of Kevin Garnett and Kevin Love and have advanced past the first round one time in their history in 2003-04 when they luckily avoided both San Antonio and the Lakers in the second round.  That’s a total of 18 seasons where they had a transcendent talent and couldn’t construct a roster to support them (16 if you remove Garnett’s rookie season and Kevin Love’s injury season).  One time out of 18 this team had what you might consider a successful season based on what their expectations should have been.

Consider all of that, the fact that Minnesota fans were hoping to have the season that Phoenix, Dallas, or (gulp) Portland did this year.  There were no excuses this year.  The team seemed to have capped out, and that’s why I’m much higher on Kevin Love as a second banana rather than a leader.  That’s a whole different post though.  As much as I have questions about Love, I don’t put all the blame on him for this team continuing to underperform.  From Glen Taylor to David Kahn to now Flip Saunders, the front office of this team has been an #NBATwitter punchline since Kevin McHale gave the Boston Celtics banner 17.  Kevin Love must be sick of that, not to mention having his teammates question his effort and leadership ability (however justified it may have been, it shouldn’t have been handled publicly, and that’s on both Love and his teammates), and having to spend a winter in Minnesota.  

Just think about how awful that must be.  Take it from someone who lives in a cold weather city, cold and snowy winters are depressing.  If I didn’t have NBA basketball to watch, things would probably go badly for me, and Minnesota is way worse than Rhode Island.  The winter is colder, longer, darker, and has more snow.  Now it’s one thing to live in a cold weather city and complain about it.  Now imagine that every other weekend you get on a plane to Phoenix or LA/San Francisco or Miami or Atlanta or Houston.  You get just enough of a taste of warm weather to make you fully realize how awful the experience of 15 inches of snow in 4 degree weather really is.  If Kevin Love has any influence over where he’s getting traded to it is without a doubt a warm weather city.  Sorry Boston fans.  

Whether that trade gets done before the draft or not doesn’t affect the thirteenth pick for the TWolves much though.  They’re in full ‘best player available’ mode because any move could happen between now and next February.  At thirteen, they may be just out of range of finding an All-Star.

McDermott is a real wild card for me.  I can see a scenario where his lack of athleticism and size cause him to not have a position in the league at all.  On the other hand, he is not only one of the best shooters in this draft (and probably a candidate for one of the best shooters in the league immediately) but he was more than just a shooter in college.  He could score.  It’s just the way that he scored (beating up smaller guys in the post, and driving by bigger guys) doesn’t seem to translate to the NBA.  He isn’t big enough to punish an NBA-caliber 3 and he really isn’t quick enough to go by an NBA-4.  He couldn’t take Chris Bosh to the rim.  And imagine him trying that against the length of someone like Ibaka?  He’d need to get three or four steps by him to beat that length.  He was barely getting a step against college bigs.  And defensively, he’ll have no shot.

At best, McDermott is an elite bench scorer.  And that’s not to say that can’t happen.  Once again, he is one of the most prolific scorers in college basketball history and an excellent knock down shooter.  If Rubio is creating open corner three’s for this dude, look out.  He should be able to score and he may rebound a bit, but don’t ask him to create, for himself or other, or defend.  It’s just not going to happen.  At this point in the draft though, an elite bench scorer is not a bad building block.  Especially for a bench that couldn’t find a scorer last season.  The key will be getting McDermott open looks consistently.  If he doesn’t stick with Minnesota long term, don’t be surprised when he ends  up on the Spurs in four years scoring 14 ppg off the bench.

What I Think They’ll Do:

We all know all the Love rumors.  The C’s are willing to give up a boatload of draft picks including # 6 and # 17.  The Warriors are trying to dump David Lee and either Klay Thompson or the Lakes # 7 pick.  Phoenix and Denver and Cleveland and Chicago are all dark horses.  Honestly,  I don’t think they’re making a deal before the draft.  I don’t think any of those deals look all that great, and going into the season has almost no downside.  These trade offers are not going to get worse between now and February.  

I think they desperately need shooting.  If McDermott or Stauskas falls to them they’re taking him.  Otherwise, James Young could go here as well.

Crazy Draft Day Trade (Not Including Kevin Love):

Enough has been written about possible Kevin Love trade scenarios.  What if Minnesota commits to buying instead of selling, even without a guarantee from Love that he’ll stay.  Make his decision difficult.  This is a little crazy, even for our standards, but hear me out.  

Do you believe in Gorgui Dieng?  Dieng emerged as a possible solution at C late last season.  I love Pekovic, but the pairing of him and Love in the frontcourt doesn’t work.  They just don’t compliment each other well.  What if you roll the dice and deal Pekovic to New Orleans to take a chance at rejuvenating Eric Gordon?  

Here’s the deal:  Eric Gordon and Austin Rivers plus a lottery protected first or pair of seconds for Pekovic, Kevin Martin, and Shabazz Muhammad.  New Orleans gets a versatile and talented three man rotation at the 4 and 5 with Davis, Anderson, and Pekovic.  They have to take on Kevin Martin’s contract, but Martin might fit in better when the other pieces on that team.  At least he doesn’t need the ball in his hands as much as Gordon.

Minnesota is taking a risk with Gordon, I accept that, but if they hit and Gordon is similar to the player he was in 2010-11 for the Clippers it’s a nice pairing with Love.   If things don’t work out and Love leaves, Gordon will be a valuable $14 million expiring contract the season after.  Now’s the time when you remind me that Gordon has never played 82 games and will likely never play at that level again.  Hey, I told you it was crazy.