The Give and Go: Trade Season

The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.

Story going online now co-scribed with @NotoriousOHM: ESPN sources say Nets have made D-Will, Brook Lopez & Joe Johnson available via trade
— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) December 9, 2014

Paul: We talked about trades a bit on last week’s podcast, but it seems we’re not the only ones anxious for the NBA’s trade season to unofficially begin. Under a week from the December 15th mark on the NBA calendar, when free agents signed over the summer become eligible for trade, and it’s not a surprise that the trade speculation has escalated, with the Dion Waiters for Kosta Koufos rumor picking up a couple of days ago and now the report from Steiny Mo and Ohm Youngmisuk.

So, Chris, let’s focus this week’s Give and Go on trades, and I’ll put a couple of questions to you. First, is there any chance one of the Nets’ “Big 3” get moved this season? And which fake trade would you make to start the the NBA’s trade season?

Chris: I’ll start with the Nets ‘Big 3’. Almost minutes after that Steiny Mo tweet I saw multiple members of basketball twitter submit their trade machine screenshots sending Brook Lopez to the Celtics. You’ve watched him closer than I have this season as you cover the Nets for Brooklyn’s Finest, so you can probably speak to it better than I can, but my immediate reaction was, ‘Please no!’. In theory, Brook provides the foundational center the Celtics are sorely lacking, but between the injury history and my belief that all Brook would do is slow this Celtics team down, I’m completely out on that scenario.

Deron has been playing well this season and if there’s ever a time to attempt to unload him, it’s now. Going into the season, multiple members of the Starters called Deron the worst contract in the league. I’m not sure that’s true anymore, although it’s certainly not good. The point guard market is bare, but maybe there are teams that would bite on a deal. Could Dallas put together a package that keeps its core intact and brings Deron in to soak up the Ray Felton/Jameer Nelson minutes? Maybe the Nets could convince the Knicks to make another panic move? I’m not sure, but Deron, averaging 17.1 points and 6.5 assists and shooting over 40% from 3-point range, has the most value he’s had in possibly 18 months.

Joe Johnson has real value now. He’s a bona fide scorer that has great size at either wing position. The contract is big, but it’s only for this year and next and comes off the books just in time for the new television deal to kick in, which is just what many teams want. Maybe a Lance for Joe Johnson swap could be the base of a deal if Charlotte really doesn’t have the patience? The Cavs or Clippers would love to get their hands on Joey J, but I don’t think they have the pieces to make the deal happen. I wouldn’t mind a Johnson-Jeff Green swap for the C’s. They’d give up cap space this summer for next summer, but they’d also get  the fourth quarter scorer they so desperately need. That would make the C’s better though, and I’m still not sure they know if they want that yet. Indiana would also be a great candidate for Joe Johnson. What about a deal like this:

The Pacers would have to part with George Hill, but in my opinion, Donald Sloan and Solomon Hill have played solid enough to make that feasible. Johnson brings some ball-handling from the wing as well. Moving Mahinmi might make the Pacers nervous so that’s why I included Plumlee, who doesn’t seem to be on Lionel Hollins’s best side. It seems like Jerome Jordan is getting more playing time than was expected. More options would open up after December 15th when someone like C.J. Miles and his $4 million plus contract could be used, maybe instead of Scola.

The weird thing is that these two teams are currently battling for the 8 seed in the East, but if the Nets are so intent on blowing it up, who am I (a Celtics fan with a dog in the fight) to get in their way, right? What do you think? Can the Nets move one of the big three? And what other deals do you think can/should/will get done in the coming months?

Paul: I’ve had to watch Brook Lopez play basketball every game for the last month-plus and my reaction to the Boston Celtics trading for Bropez is about the same. The Celtics need an athletic, shot-blocking presence at the rim, and, ironically, so do the Nets. Brook is currently out for the week with a back strain and has already missed the first week of the season with a random foot issue, and a player option next season at almost $17 million creates further uncertainty as to his future status in any trade. If he’s healthy enough to play well he opts out of his contract next summer and seeks a max deal, or he’s hurt and takes up a significant chunk of your cap as he again works his way back from injury. Good offensive centers are scarce, but Brook’s lack of foot speed and limited athleticism should scare enough teams away.

Deron Williams is in a similar situation, although he’s far enough removed from his own ankle injuries to have shown flashes of his former dominance. He’s been Brooklyn’s best, most consistent, player by far and already has a Player of the Week award to his credit this season, but I’m not sure if his trade value around the league is as high as the Nets are hoping, given his salary over the next two seasons and his injury history. The teams that are looking to upgrade at point guard, teams like the Los Angeles Lakers or Sacramento Kings, might not necessarily have the contracts to match back to Brooklyn or the draft picks to deal.

Which brings up the larger point to this exercise, and that’s what Brooklyn’s motivation is in all of this. The team already has almost-$80 million committed to next season’s payroll, and owes two first-round picks to Boston over the next three seasons and the rights to a pick swap in the 2015 draft to the Atlanta Hawks. Outside of Bojan Bogdanovic and Mason Plumlee, who’s struggled hardcore in adjusting to Lionel Hollins’s new concepts, the team lacks any rotation players under-30 years old and under contract next season. Rebuilding, without your own draft picks, isn’t really an option, especially for a team owned (and possibly being sold) by Mikhail Prokhorov. Trading any of these pieces would have to be for depth, and to get younger and more athletic next season.

Joe Johnson is probably the most tradeable piece that general manager Billy King has made available, which is insane for a player who will make just under $25 million in 2015-16. Johnson’s been pretty bad ever since dropping the “selfish” comments before the teams’ three-game, West Coast road trip, but is still among the league’s best at closing out basketball games thanks to his “Iso Joe” abilities. There aren’t many two-guards in the league who can create their own shot, catch-and-shoot, and rebound well, without being a total trainwreck on defense, and Joey J could help a couple of teams.

Finding teams that can match salaries and give the Nets something back besides salary relief is another obstacle. There’s a great trolling-offer to be made around Amare Stoudemire’s expiring contract and Andrea Bargnani for Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez that would piss off both fan bases and cause half of my co-writers at BK’s Finest to quit in protest of having to recap Nets games. Joey J for Amare and Tim Hardaway Jr. works and gives both teams some pieces of value next season, but the Knicks are a mess and should probably focus on playing for a draft pick this year.

This is in no way original, in fact Jonah had the framework of this deal in his trade piece Wednesday, but Joe Johnson could really help the Charlotte Hornets, and they could have a shooting guard to swap after December 15th. I would love to provide the screen cap of my Trade Machine deal of Joe Johnson for Lance Stephenson, Marvin Williams, and Gerald Henderson, but unfortunately both Lance and Marvin are unable to move until the 15th, as they were summer free agent signings that have not worked out in Charlotte. We talked about how disappointing the team has been last week on the Give and Go, but Joe Johnson would immediately become the best shooting guard in franchise history and be able to open up space for Professor Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. Kemba is a good late-game closer in his own right, with a game-winner already under his belt this year, but would have to cede those responsibilities to Joe Johnson for the next two seasons.

Brooklyn would get a flawed-but-young, former New York high school hero in Lance Stephenson in return, who’s under contract for the next three seasons and has struggled in shooting the ball for the Hornets. He’d be able to run the offense more in Brooklyn and have actual shooters to kick to, like Deron, Bojan, and Mirza Teletovic, while helping out on the boards and giving the roster some much-needed athleticism. Marvin Williams would come off the bench at power forward or get flipped before the deadline (or Kevin Garnett?), while Gerald Henderson would rival incumbent-Alan Anderson as my personal least-favorite player to watch on the roster.

The Nets might be able to do better than Lance Stephenson and Marvin Williams, but I doubt Joe Johnson’s true value is anywhere close to Billy King’s expectations of that value. Due to the age, struggles, injury histories, and cost of Brooklyn’s “Big 3”, any trade would return another team’s headache, and the Nets are at a weird position going forward, without any draft picks but with an old and expensive roster. Given the nature of the Brooklyn Nets organization, the leaks and rumors and daily drama should be fun to monitor throughout the winter, but the NBA trade season has begun.