Episode 056 - Steve Nash's Retirement & The Race for the Seventh/Eighth Seeds

Chris and Paul discuss Steve Nash’s retirement for the first ten minutes of the podcast, and then break down the field for the Western and Eastern Conference’s last couple of playoff spots.

Trade Deadline Fallout

Mark D. Smith/USA TODAY Sports

Remember on the podcast when Chris and I predicted that the NBA’s trade deadline would be weak and underwhelming? That was fun. Never before have I been so glad to be so wrong, as the transactions flew at such a frenzied pace Thursday afternoon that even the Woj-cyborg showed signs of short-circuiting.

Good lord.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojYahooNBA) February 19, 2015

In total, 37 players were involved in trades on Thursday alone and about a dozen draft picks changed hands. Here’s my best account of rationalizing and breaking down each trade in the chronological order in which they broke, in the hours leading up to Thursday’s 3pm (EST) trade deadline - outside of that last half hour to 20-minute stretch that closed out the activity, when my head might have momentarily exploded. Most of the information has been referenced from SBNation’s concise trade listings, and I’ve used the always clutch Pro Sports Transactions for any future draft picks that were moved.

Episode 054 - All-Star Recap & Trade Deadline Preview

Chris and Paul reflect on last weekend’s All-Star festivities (23:00), then jump into trade deadline talk (until 55:00), and finally some TV and movies.

Worth a click:

The Money Side of Goran Dragic to the Pacers (Tim Donahue, 8Points9Seconds)

Sunday Shootaround: Everyone Loves KD. Now What? (Paul Flannery, SBNation)

Kobe Bryant Will Always Be an All Star at Talking (Chuck Klosterman, GQ)

Why I Prefer Having Sex With NBA Players (Lisa Ann, as told to Myles Brown, GQ)

Danny Ainge’s balancing act (Ian Thomsen, NBA.com)

Video of the Day: The Legend of Goran

Goran Dragic has openly spoken about how this off-season will be one of the toughest decisions in his lifetime.  He's a free agent to be currently playing for a team that made two long-term contract offers to point guards last summer and as we saw with the Rajon Rondo trade, the market for point guards isn't very good, but Dragic is a special player.

Last season, Dragic was a member of the All-NBA team, and although he got off to slow start this season, he's currently averaging 16.5 points, 4.0 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game while shooting over 50% from the field and 35% from 3-point range.  But beyond the numbers, Goran is a truly unique player in today's NBA and this play is just one of many examples of that:

The Give and Go: Mea Culpa

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.

Paul:  We’ve entered the sixth week of the NBA’s 2014-15 season, and I feel like we can finally start looking at the stats and numbers without the small sample size caveat. Teams that found themselves struggling for the first few weeks of the season have begun to figure some things out (or vice versa), and maybe we’re at a point that we can revisit some of our preseason predictions and re-evaluate. So I’m wondering, which team(s) are you ready to admit that you were wrong about heading into this season, for better or worse?

Chris:  That’s actually kind of difficult. As you mentioned, we’re dangerously close to a point where small sample size loses it’s steam. Although, if you look back at last season, teams like Toronto and Brooklyn, and even Indiana and Portland to some degree, showed that a lot can happen between January 1st and the end of April. But things have already started to level off a little bit this season. I picked the Clippers to have the best record in the West for the regular season and after three weeks that looked ridiculous. But today, even though they are 7th in the West after five straight wins, they’re only three wins back of first. If I posed this question to you two weeks ago or even last week, you might have said that you were way off in thinking Denver was a frisky playoff contender, but they’ve won 8 of 10 and are a half game out of the 8 spot.

Charlotte’s too obvious (and I thought they might struggle, though not this much) so I’m actually going to go with Phoenix. Don’t get me wrong, I loved watching the Suns last season, but they got a career year out of Goran Dragic that I didn’t think was possible to replicate even before Isaiah Thomas was brought in. They lost Channing Frye, one of their most reliable big men, and so many of their role players from last year had career seasons (Gerald Green, P.J. Tucker, The Morris Twins). I didn’t expect them to fall apart completely, but I thought they would have a 2013 Minnesota-like, 40-42 season, never really having a chance at the playoffs.

That’s not the case. Phoenix will be in the mix until April and that race for the 8 seed is going to be crazy. OKC will be charging with Durant and Westbrook both playing this week. As I mentioned, Denver could be in the mix if their play continues (especially Ty Lawson), and you have young upstarts in Sacramento and New Orleans that are going to hang around. Phoenix has withstood poor starts by both their star point guards to cling to that 8th seed in an insanely difficult West all amid ‘media reports’ swirling as Isaiah Thomas comes off the bench and wins Phoenix games. Thomas and Green have been dynamic, combining to average 29.9 points per game and an outlandish 47.7 points per 36 minutes. Markieff Morris has been great as a starter, averaging 14.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, and they’ve even gotten some really solid contributions out of second year center Alex Len, adding to their already gluttonous depth at a position of need on the bench unit.

I’ve been impressed with Phoenix’s resolve. At the start of the season, I saw them as a regression candidate, but now I see them as a young team that continues to develop and would love to get some playoff experience much like last season’s Wizards. What were you wrong about?

Paul:  Well, you mean besides picking Russell Westbrook to win the MVP award, and leaving Elfrid Payton off of both of my All-Rookie teams? I’ll try to stick to teams, though.

First off, we, and every other NBA writer and prognosticator, will probably be wrong on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Injuries suck. Russell came back last week and Kevin Durant is mere hours away from making his season debut and shredding Tyreke Evans and John SaLOLmons. I have no doubt a healthy Thunder squad will play .600 basketball in the next few months and will present major match-up issues if they finish with a #7 or 8 seed in the Western Conference. So maybe the Thunder won’t be a top-three seed, like most of us assumed in the preseason and before all the injuries hit, but they will be a playoff team, and watching KD and Russ play with a “sense of urgency” to overcompensate for the team’s 4-12 record in their absence should be amazing.

This whole exercise could look foolish if we look back on it in a couple of months, much as it would have last season after burying the Nets, Raptors, and Grizzlies early into the schedule. I liked Denver’s depth enough to think they could finish over .500 and claim the 9th spot in the West, ala “last year's Phoenix Suns”, and even though they’ve battled back to win 8 of their last 10 games, Ty Lawson really needs to play like an All-Star for this team to reach that level.

I’m a bit hesitant to claim the same with the Charlotte Hornets, in case they make a trade or get Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back healthy and go on a run, but 10 games under .500 by December 1st is a tough hole to climb out of, especially for a team that can’t score. Lance Stephenson and Kemba Walker haven’t really gelled yet in the same backcourt, and neither are great catch-and-shoot players who can spot up off of the others’ drives, but head coach Steve Clifford has to get the team back to shutting off the paint and playing top-10 defense. I’m optimistic that Rich Cho can add another shooter throughout the season, whether a minor piece or a starter-type, but if last season's defensive dominance was a fluke then it’ll be a long season in Charlotte.

On the optimistic side of the spectrum, the Sacramento Kings have been everybody’s surprise team after the first couple of weeks, but injuries to DeMarcus “BOOGIE!” Cousins and Rudy Gay have sapped some of the acclaim, as they’ve lost their last three games and 6 of their last 10. They’re about average to slightly-below on both sides of the ball, but leading the league in rebounding percentage and free throw attempts per game. Younger pieces like Darren Collison and Ben McLemore have shown signs of competence, along with steady veteran big men Reggie Evans and Chuck Hayes. Talk about another team that could use a shooter, though…

Finally, I was wrong about the Portland Trail Blazers, but especially their offseason additions. I had Terry Stotts’s squad as my regression candidate in the Western Conference, falling to the 8th seed after finishing 5th last season, due mostly to my high esteem for the rest of the conference and unfavorable opinion of Steve Blake and Chris Kaman to back up at the point guard and center positions, respectively. Instead, Kaman is averaging 11.1 points and 7.2 boards (in just 19.3 minutes) on 50.6% shooting, while Blake is still struggling shooting the ball (4.4 points on 34.8% on 2’s and 31.5% on 3’s) but is averaging 4.5 assists in 22.1 minutes per game. Wes Matthews has been exceptional so far in his contract year (18.8 points with 61.1/40.9/66.7 triple-slash percentages), along with team leaders Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Nic Batum’s injury was mostly offset by bench players like C.J. McCollum, Will “The Thrill” Barton, and even Meyers Leonard stepping up, and the Blazers sit at 13-4 with the 4th-ranked offense and 6th-best defense. The West is so good that the Blazers could still fall to the 8th seed by the end of the season, separated by merely a couple of games in the standings, but the team has improved its defense and depth from last season and look like a top-4 seed in the loaded Western Conference. My bad, Blazers fans.

# 27 - Phoenix Suns

photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

What I’d Do:

K.J. McDaniels - Clemson

6’6” (6’11” wingspan!!), 196 lbs, 2/9/1993 (21 years old)

Paul George:     6’9” w/     6’11”     wingspan.

Tony Allen:     6’4” w/     6’9”     wingspan.

To me, K. J. McDaniels is the ideal size as a wing defender and that's his specialty.  This is a perfect fit in Phoenix (Mitchell already wrote about Phoenix and their situation here at # 14 and here at # 18). It’s probably unlikely the Suns keep all three first rounders, but if they do stash a guy like Capela at 18 it raises those chances.  Assuming Eric Bledsoe returns, I can just imagine Bledsoe, Dragic, and McDaniels going full 1990’s Arkansas ‘40 Minutes of Hell’ on the league.  

The upside is that McDaniels, although inconsistent in college, has the upside to develop that outside shot.  He could be the ideal 3 and D guy in this draft if that shot develops.  He’s a good finisher, great free throw shooter (which makes you think he has promise) and defends well for his size.  He played mostly 3 in college but could probably play and defend either wing position in the pros.  I think he just gives Phoenix lots of defensive versatility on the perimeter.

What They Will Do:

Even if they stash a guy at # 14 or # 18 they could end up moving this pick.  Chad Ford has them taking Capela here at # 27 (he has them taking Rodney Hood at # 18) and the Heat stealing McDaniels one spot before.  So much has to do with who is available at this point in the draft.  There are rotation players to be had though.  A lot might depend on how they feel about some of their free agents as well.  It seems P.J. Tucker may be headed to a new home.  If they don’t think they can get a Bledsoe deal done, that may change, and it would drastically alter their draft day strategy.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

Phoenix has the roster flexibility here to do some crazy things.  This is really crazy:  A Greg Monroe - Eric Bledsoe double sign and trade.  I’m not even sure that’s a thing under the CBA (although I feel like it is possible under the rules, but almost impossible to get done).  I could get behind that.  That would tie up some of their cap space, but they’d have plenty of other assets to make another move if they want to.  Monroe might be better suited for a slower paced team, but a franchise big would be a nice catch for Phoenix.  

As far as Detroit, I feel like SVG would love Bledsoe.  Although, I am actually a bit curious to see Brandon Jennings for one year under SVG.  I feel like he could make some strides.

 

#18 - Phoenix Suns

Found on court-side.com, no credit listed.

What I’d Do:

Clint Capela – Switzerland

6’11” (7’4.5” wingspan), 222 lbs., 05/18/1994 (20 years old)

With the second of their three first round picks in this draft, the Phoenix Suns can afford to take a chance. I tried to address their roster situation and options going into the 2014 offseason with my post on #14, and will try to touch on the relevant points to their pick at #18.

#14 - Phoenix Suns

Brace Hemmelgarn/USA Today Sports

What I’d Do:

James Young – Kentucky

6’7” (7’ wingspan), 213 lbs., 08/16/1995 (18 years old)

For a team that was in a full-on rebuild a year ago, the Phoenix Suns don’t have a lot of particular team needs. First-year general manager Ryan McDonough and first-year head coach Jeff Hornacek overhauled the roster last summer, hitting on trades (Eric Bledsoe, Miles Plumlee/Gerald Green) and stacking assets (three first round picks in this draft) while improving the team by 23 wins from the previous season. While the earliest of the three picks is their own at the end of the lottery, they’ll have over $25 million in cap room this summer with eight players on guaranteed contracts in 2014-15. The Phoenix Suns have plenty of options to continue rebuilding this roster in the pursuit of a playoff run next season.

Happy Opening Day!

Happy Opening Day!

Every year it seems that today comes longer to hoop heads, that the wait is unusually more agonizing and the offseason more arduous than the one preceding it. A quick mathematical investigation on my part has shown that this NBA summer has been, in fact, as consistently long as in previous years. If anything, that amazing Spurs/Heat Finals going seven games actually afforded us a few extra days of sweet, sweet basketball, compared to the five game LeBron/Durant Showdown of 2012. The offseason has not lacked for entertainment or drama either, as fans in Houston/Los Angeles and Brooklyn/Boston would, respectively, probably characterize it. And while some franchises might enter hibernation earlier this winter, there are glimmers of hope and change in other corners of the NBA map.

This season is going to be spectacular, by all accounts. As is true in every other of the NBA’s near-70 year existence, not every team has a realistic shot at a championship. 2013-14 might even feature a record run of rebuilding and futility from franchises, even as the first (honest, if not anonymous) general manager details why this might already be a lost season and it’s not even Halloween yet. But, for the first time in my 15+ years as an NBA fan, you can make a case that every one of the 30 organizations at least has a plan in place.

Think about that for a second, and think of how rare that premise has been in recent seasons. Even Donald Sterling can’t screw his own organization up anymore! We’re going to see plenty of bad teams this year and many blowout losses, but even the stingiest of rosters is assembled with a clear goal in mind that makes sense: this upcoming draft is going to be really good and rookie contracts are better values than free agent contracts.

For the most part we’re not seeing traditionally bad organizations target mediocrity or drift aimlessly through another NBA season. With the settled situation in Sacramento, another lottery season might be realistic, but stability and new ownership has sparked optimism, and a big trade wouldn’t surprise anyone. Phoenix and Philadelphia might be openly bereft of talent (and are probably the odds-on favorites to have supplied that previous passage to Mr. Goodman) but with draft picks and playing time for young prospects, you can’t say they’re quote-unquote “tanking” (UGH) or being cheap or disingenuous to their fanbases.

Boston is in the nascent stages of their long-term rebuild, and a franchise-altering lottery pick in 2014 would be a nice block to build upon. Charlotte has been bad while trying to be good, and an Al Jefferson signing, plus Kemba/Gerald/MKG, helps make them watchable while still staying semi-flexible in their search for a franchise guy. While they’re not the laughing stock of the league this season after two historically inept campaigns, they should still be in lottery contention in the #RigginforWiggins or #TankSafariforJabari efforts. Orlando is firmly in year two of their post-Dwight existence, with a solid collection of assets and a coach that has already installed a culture. Utah’s situation is slightly different, in that they’ve developed their young core alongside positive veterans in Jeff, Milsap and (gulp) Jamaal Tinsley, and while an overachieve to a playoff spot wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, an impact lottery pick (from the wing/guard spot?) would bolster a more realistic 2015 playoff push.

It’s probably a good thing that the NBA mediocrity, the 7-10 seeds in each conference, are mostly inhabited by younger teams who hope that an entrance into the playoffs portends bigger things to their futures. Minnesota, Denver, Portland, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Toronto, Washington and the Pelicans (!) all feature a young core with legitimate playoff aspirations, where even a short series pounding against a Miami, Chicago, Indiana, San Antonio, or Oklahoma City would go well towards seasoning that core or persuading bitter franchise guys to stick around.

It’s the older teams settling in at that .500 level that are the most frustrating franchises this season. While Mark Cuban asserts that three year deals are the new market inefficiency, it’s still an older team with questionable personnel fits that will struggle to defend. The Lakers might be better served to sit the season out, settle their chemistry issues and develop a long-term plan, especially with so many upcoming marquee free agents with LA ties. Instead they’re pulling a 2012 Cuban and spending money on one-year deals, hoping that fitting players into a coaching scheme will get them to the playoffs. But then what?

The legitimate playoff teams stay scheming to claim the throne. We’ll see if the Atlanta’s and Knicks’s of the league can compete while transitioning their teams to what could be a different look next season. Brooklyn and Golden State found that they enjoyed their playoff debuts last year and made commitments to hopefully surpass their successes of a season ago. Organizations like the Heat, Spurs, Bulls, Pacers, Grizzlies and Thunder preferred to rely on internal improvements to augment their rosters. They might enter the season slept on but are all veteran teams with confidence and an identity.

The most interesting teams might be the ones on the title periphery, who were mere bounces or breaks away from taking Miami or San Antonio’s spots in 2013. An offseason of confidence could do wonders to the next teams up, who made mostly minor alterations: a beefed up bench or an extra shooter to space the floor or someone to defend the LeBrons or Tony Parkers that they will have to vanquish on their journey to NBA immortality.

And the kings stay the kings. Once they sublimated their egos enough to embrace their revolution on the game, the only thing that can beat the Heat might truly be free agency. Injuries to Dwyane and Bosh weren’t enough to knock them off. Boxing matches with the Pacers and Bulls, and burying their Boston rivals once and for all, couldn’t do it either, it only weakened them enough to enable their Western foes to get close. But when backed against the wall, a spot they’ve been in more times than any other recent dynasty since the Rockets of the mid-90’s, they’ve regrouped, summoned their resolve and unleashed historical performances on the macro and micro levels (see video below ). As a dynasty, they’ve raised the games of everyone around them, bringing out the best in their adversaries and creating history, while ushering in perhaps an evolution to a style of play that for 40 years had been derided as a gimmick.

Oh yeah, and we’ve seen one of the handful of most talented athletes ever realize his potential, develop his game and basically mature while acting as the league’s most popular player and outright villain. We knocked LeBron James for not being clutch (whatever that means). Then we picked apart his lack of a post game. Finally we wondered if he could stand up, mentally, to the rigors of being the target and to dominate every night while elevating his game in the playoffs. Now we’re honestly just wondering where he’ll play next and how many potential championships that could swing.

I cannot wait for 7 o’clock.