Episode 073 - Tier-ing Up the West

Chris and Paul take on the Western Conference and break down all 15 teams into tiers based on their projected finish in 2015-16.

Episode 070 - Bottom-Five Teams and Mr. Robot

Chris and Paul continue their contract-extension conversation from last week’s podcast by discussing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s new deal with the Charlotte Hornets, and then transition to their potential bottom-five teams in the 2015-16 season. They end by previewing the season finale of the debut season of USA’s Mr. Robot, and briefly talk about Adult Swim’s Rick and Morty and Paul’s foray back into the world of “Serial” with the “Undisclosed” podcast.

The Give and Go: Mea Culpa

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.

Paul:  We’ve entered the sixth week of the NBA’s 2014-15 season, and I feel like we can finally start looking at the stats and numbers without the small sample size caveat. Teams that found themselves struggling for the first few weeks of the season have begun to figure some things out (or vice versa), and maybe we’re at a point that we can revisit some of our preseason predictions and re-evaluate. So I’m wondering, which team(s) are you ready to admit that you were wrong about heading into this season, for better or worse?

Chris:  That’s actually kind of difficult. As you mentioned, we’re dangerously close to a point where small sample size loses it’s steam. Although, if you look back at last season, teams like Toronto and Brooklyn, and even Indiana and Portland to some degree, showed that a lot can happen between January 1st and the end of April. But things have already started to level off a little bit this season. I picked the Clippers to have the best record in the West for the regular season and after three weeks that looked ridiculous. But today, even though they are 7th in the West after five straight wins, they’re only three wins back of first. If I posed this question to you two weeks ago or even last week, you might have said that you were way off in thinking Denver was a frisky playoff contender, but they’ve won 8 of 10 and are a half game out of the 8 spot.

Charlotte’s too obvious (and I thought they might struggle, though not this much) so I’m actually going to go with Phoenix. Don’t get me wrong, I loved watching the Suns last season, but they got a career year out of Goran Dragic that I didn’t think was possible to replicate even before Isaiah Thomas was brought in. They lost Channing Frye, one of their most reliable big men, and so many of their role players from last year had career seasons (Gerald Green, P.J. Tucker, The Morris Twins). I didn’t expect them to fall apart completely, but I thought they would have a 2013 Minnesota-like, 40-42 season, never really having a chance at the playoffs.

That’s not the case. Phoenix will be in the mix until April and that race for the 8 seed is going to be crazy. OKC will be charging with Durant and Westbrook both playing this week. As I mentioned, Denver could be in the mix if their play continues (especially Ty Lawson), and you have young upstarts in Sacramento and New Orleans that are going to hang around. Phoenix has withstood poor starts by both their star point guards to cling to that 8th seed in an insanely difficult West all amid ‘media reports’ swirling as Isaiah Thomas comes off the bench and wins Phoenix games. Thomas and Green have been dynamic, combining to average 29.9 points per game and an outlandish 47.7 points per 36 minutes. Markieff Morris has been great as a starter, averaging 14.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, and they’ve even gotten some really solid contributions out of second year center Alex Len, adding to their already gluttonous depth at a position of need on the bench unit.

I’ve been impressed with Phoenix’s resolve. At the start of the season, I saw them as a regression candidate, but now I see them as a young team that continues to develop and would love to get some playoff experience much like last season’s Wizards. What were you wrong about?

Paul:  Well, you mean besides picking Russell Westbrook to win the MVP award, and leaving Elfrid Payton off of both of my All-Rookie teams? I’ll try to stick to teams, though.

First off, we, and every other NBA writer and prognosticator, will probably be wrong on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Injuries suck. Russell came back last week and Kevin Durant is mere hours away from making his season debut and shredding Tyreke Evans and John SaLOLmons. I have no doubt a healthy Thunder squad will play .600 basketball in the next few months and will present major match-up issues if they finish with a #7 or 8 seed in the Western Conference. So maybe the Thunder won’t be a top-three seed, like most of us assumed in the preseason and before all the injuries hit, but they will be a playoff team, and watching KD and Russ play with a “sense of urgency” to overcompensate for the team’s 4-12 record in their absence should be amazing.

This whole exercise could look foolish if we look back on it in a couple of months, much as it would have last season after burying the Nets, Raptors, and Grizzlies early into the schedule. I liked Denver’s depth enough to think they could finish over .500 and claim the 9th spot in the West, ala “last year's Phoenix Suns”, and even though they’ve battled back to win 8 of their last 10 games, Ty Lawson really needs to play like an All-Star for this team to reach that level.

I’m a bit hesitant to claim the same with the Charlotte Hornets, in case they make a trade or get Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back healthy and go on a run, but 10 games under .500 by December 1st is a tough hole to climb out of, especially for a team that can’t score. Lance Stephenson and Kemba Walker haven’t really gelled yet in the same backcourt, and neither are great catch-and-shoot players who can spot up off of the others’ drives, but head coach Steve Clifford has to get the team back to shutting off the paint and playing top-10 defense. I’m optimistic that Rich Cho can add another shooter throughout the season, whether a minor piece or a starter-type, but if last season's defensive dominance was a fluke then it’ll be a long season in Charlotte.

On the optimistic side of the spectrum, the Sacramento Kings have been everybody’s surprise team after the first couple of weeks, but injuries to DeMarcus “BOOGIE!” Cousins and Rudy Gay have sapped some of the acclaim, as they’ve lost their last three games and 6 of their last 10. They’re about average to slightly-below on both sides of the ball, but leading the league in rebounding percentage and free throw attempts per game. Younger pieces like Darren Collison and Ben McLemore have shown signs of competence, along with steady veteran big men Reggie Evans and Chuck Hayes. Talk about another team that could use a shooter, though…

Finally, I was wrong about the Portland Trail Blazers, but especially their offseason additions. I had Terry Stotts’s squad as my regression candidate in the Western Conference, falling to the 8th seed after finishing 5th last season, due mostly to my high esteem for the rest of the conference and unfavorable opinion of Steve Blake and Chris Kaman to back up at the point guard and center positions, respectively. Instead, Kaman is averaging 11.1 points and 7.2 boards (in just 19.3 minutes) on 50.6% shooting, while Blake is still struggling shooting the ball (4.4 points on 34.8% on 2’s and 31.5% on 3’s) but is averaging 4.5 assists in 22.1 minutes per game. Wes Matthews has been exceptional so far in his contract year (18.8 points with 61.1/40.9/66.7 triple-slash percentages), along with team leaders Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Nic Batum’s injury was mostly offset by bench players like C.J. McCollum, Will “The Thrill” Barton, and even Meyers Leonard stepping up, and the Blazers sit at 13-4 with the 4th-ranked offense and 6th-best defense. The West is so good that the Blazers could still fall to the 8th seed by the end of the season, separated by merely a couple of games in the standings, but the team has improved its defense and depth from last season and look like a top-4 seed in the loaded Western Conference. My bad, Blazers fans.

Episode 043 - The Return of Basketball

Chris and Paul finally have basketball to talk about, and discuss some observations from the opening two nights of the NBA season.

#20 - Toronto Raptors

NBA.com

What I’d Do:

Tyler Ennis – Syracuse

6’2” (6’7.25” wingspan), 182 lbs., 08/24/1994 (19 years old)

The Toronto Raptors are probably the most difficult team in the league to predict, this offseason. Such is life when Masai Ujiri is your general manager.

# 11 - Denver Nuggets

via Dale G Young/ Detroit News

What I’d Do:

Gary Harris

6’4.5” (6’7” wingspan), 210lbs, 9/14/1994 (19 years old)

Denver’s top 3 lineups as far as minutes played involved playing Randy Foye at the Shooting Guard position.  Those three lineups totaled 774 mins this season.  The next closest was the lineup of Nate Robinson/Andre Miller/Hamilton/Arthur/Mozgov and played only 80 minutes before Miller was traded.  Denver could use a SG and at this point in the draft, they could do a lot worse than Gary Harris.

I feel as though I haven’t had a grasp of Denver’s roster for a few years now.  There just always seems to be too many pieces and the lack of defined roles is always a hindrance to development.  Don’t get me wrong, the Nuggets had a great season in 2012-13.  They were never really a contender though.  I get the impression that they won more games than their talent would indicate helped especially by an unsustainably amazing home record.  Then coach George Karl left (how is he not getting calls this off-season?) and Brian Shaw came in.  

Shaw is still trying to establish who he is as a coach and it was a struggle at some points last season for some of their players.  Kenneth Faried in particular did not seem to fit with Brian Shaw’s system or philosophy and I was afraid he was the type of player that would stall out developmentally anyway.

Injuries were a factor as well, let’s not forget that.  Javale McGee played 5 games last season.  Danilo didn’t play a game.  Even Lawson and Wilson Chandler only played 62.  You could make the argument those were Denver’s four best players going into the season.  (Or at least in Javale's case, what they needed him to be).

What the Nuggets really need is to consolidate a bit.  Turn two or three of their slightly talents pieces into a more developed and talented piece.  There’s one piece in particular I love, but we’ll get to that.  In the mean time, whether they hold on to this pick or use it in my maniacal plan I have Denver taking Gary Harris.

Harris was one of my favorite prospects in college basketball since the opening weekend where Michigan State handled Kentucky fairly well.  Compared to the freshman prospects, he seemed so much more prepared for that moment.  He’s still only 19 though.  His strength is defensively.  He’s probably one of the best defensive guards in the draft, averaged 2.2 steals per 40 minutes without getting the reputation of a gambler, and is ahead of most players his age as a weakside and team defender (coached by Tom Izzo, imagine that).  In his three match ups against Stauskas this season he wasn’t able to shut him down, but made him work extremely hard and severely limited his efficiency.  On the other hand, Stauskas wasn’t even matched up against Harris.  He couldn’t guard him.

That brings me to the other side of the ball.  Harris is a fairly polished offensive player.  He doesn’t have extreme versatility, and could struggle to create shots for himself or others.  He can shoot though.  He posted a 1.136 PPP on catch and shoot situations.  If you put him in a structured offense he will not be a liability.  20% of his total offense came off of screens last season.  

His size limits him a bit.  At 6’4.5” and without elite athleticism or a remarkable wingspan it’s his physical tools that keep him from being a mid-lottery pick.  Even Stauskas was able to take advantage of his height in their match ups.  You can’t teach up height or length.  Those things limit Harris’ ceiling a bit, but for my money his basement is Courtney Lee almost on day one as a 19 year old.  That’s not so bad.

What I Think They’ll Do:

At pick 11, Denver seems to be just outside the second tier of talent.  If any of Randle, Gordon, Vonleh, Embiid, Smart, or even Saric fall to them, they probably snatch them up.  It seems unlikely at this point, but something strange could happen.  James Young could also be a possibility here.  The more likely scenario in my mind is Harris or to trade this pick…

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

Brian Shaw wants his post presence and Greg Monroe is a restricted free agent.  Stan Van has come out in defense of keeping Monroe, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do.  BUT, if they move him I would love to see him go to Denver.  Include Danilo to give Detroit shooting in the front court. Then you could either:

1) Include Harris who you drafted here (or trade this pick to Detroit for them to draft Harris, same outcome).  How about Jennings/Harris/Smith/Danilo/Drummond?

-OR-

2) You can keep Harris and package some pieces with Danilo: Evan Fournier and Randy Foye, maybe even JJ Hickson.  Denver also has a trade exception from the Iguodala deal.  In this scenario Denver could trot out Lawson/Harris/Chandler/Monroe/McGee.  At the very least, that moves them up the League Pass watchability ratings 5-10 spots, no?

#4 - Orlando Magic

Getty Images

What I’d Do:

Dante Exum - Australia

6’6” (6’9.5” wingspan), 196 lbs., 07/13/1995 (18 years old)

It’s been two seasons since the Orlando Magic made the Dwight Howard trade and, despite finishing a combined 78 games under .500 in that span, they’re clearly the winners in the deal. We’ll get to the Lakers and Nuggets later on in this mock but Orlando counted on Nikola Vucevic, Arron Afflalo and Moe Harkless to start games for them this season (albeit for the third-worst team in the league) and still has the #12 pick in this draft, a 2017 Lakers first rounder and a future Philadelphia first coming. Vucevic is a possible long-term piece at center that will be up for an extension next offseason (as will Tobias Harris) and Harkless and Andrew Nicholson will be playing for extensions the following season. Afflalo should have been an All-Star this year and has quietly suggested he would be open to a trade to a playoff contender, and should be a trade asset with two years and $15 million remaining (with 2015-16 a player option).