Episode 039 - Rookie Week Podcast

In episode 39, Chris and Paul cover all of the impact rookies entering the 2014-15 NBA season, with some talk on the rebuilding teams in the league.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Rookie Week Picks

In the first week of our 2014-15 NBA Season Preview we took a look at some of the impact rookies entering the NBA. Our five candidates were all interesting, impact prospects from rebuilding teams, who should figure prominently into the Rookie of the Year race. Chris looked at Jabari Parker's NBA-ready game on Monday; Paul discussed Nerlens Noel's need for injury-free minutes while adjusting to a young 76ers team Tuesday; Wednesday was Dante Exum Day, as Chris projected his talents as a potential star guard; Marcus Smart was the subject of Thursday's piece from Paul on toughness; and Friday saw Rookie Week wrap up with Andrew Wiggins and how situation might suit him more in Minnesota.

In this week's podcast, we expanded upon our essays and looked at Parker, Noel, Exum, Smart, and Wiggins closer, but also within the context of their new environments and the talent around them. We also tried to address any other rookies on some of these rebuilding teams, before getting into our All-Rookie 1^st and 2^nd team lineups, and any honorable mentions and or sleepers for the 2015 Rookie of the Year Award.

We’ve tried to narrow down our lists to a few names for each category, but, really, this rookie class is so deep that the honorable mentions list is a legitimate-10 names deep. As always, there are plenty of rookies who struggle to adjust or earn minutes at the NBA level, just as there are second-round picks and undrafted free agents who fight for minutes and carve out roles in the pros. Here are our best guesses for the 2014-15 rookie class:

# 19 - Chicago Bulls

 

Brian Spurlock - USAToday Sports

What I’d Do:

T. J. Warren

6’8” (6’10” wingspan), 220 lbs, 9/5/1993 (20 years old)

BRING BACK THE FLOATER

T. J. Warren won ACC Player of the Year over Jabari Parker by being one of 8 BCS players under the age of 21 to score over 27 PTS per 40.  This kid is an absolute scorer.  He scored at a rate of 1.27 PTS/possession (good for # 4 in Draft Express’ Top 100) and sported the # 2 PER in that group behind Doug McDermott.  

As I mentioned in the Celtics piece, he’ the type of player that can get 15-20 without having to run a play for him.  He scored 12% of his offense off of cuts in his sophomore season.  He’s an elite offensive rebounder for a SF scoring 11% (!) of his offense on put backs.  He is deadliest in transition, which he’s able to create on his own (2.1 steals per 40) and is a one man fast break in the best sense.  Because of his touch and finishing ability he’ll go one on three before dropping a beautiful 5 foot floater between outstretched defenders.  I love him as a can’t miss bench scorer.

What keeps him from going so much earlier are question marks about his defense ability and his outside shooting.  He’s not a great passer or decision maker, but who wants him passing when he scores at that rate?  Defensively, he has decent size and length, unfortunately his lateral quickness is a major concern (in fairness, he did post a decent number at the combine in the lane agility drill).  It’s assumed he will struggle with the quickness of many 3’s on the perimeter but is too small to realistically play power forward.   Chicago is a great fit in that regard, because you’ll theoretically be able to hide him a bit.  As I said though, he has the length and he has great hands and anticipation.  There is still defensive upside there.

As far as his shooting, who cares?  Are valuing outside shooting too much now?  This guy is going to score period.  From 18 feet in he is an absolute monster.  Also, there’s no reason to think he can’t develop the outside shot.  With some work with an NBA shooting coach, I’d be willing to bet that in three years T. J. Warren is shooting 36%+ from 3.  That’s acceptable, especially with that floater.  One of the things I love about Warren’s game is how unique he is.  There’s almost no comparison.  He’s like a cross between Jamal Crawford and Carl Landry.  He’s just going to score efficiently no matter how many minutes you give him and as we know, Chicago could use the offense.

Mitchell wrote about Chicago’s situation and what he’d do with their 16th pick.  As fast as Elfrid Payton’s rise has been, he may no longer be available at that spot.   If he is though, I absolutely love that pick (especially being proactive about Rose’s future), and I think going more offensive minded with this pick in Warren is a great pairing.  

What I Think They’ll Do:

The Bulls may have the best package to offer Minnesota including this and the # 16 pick with some combination of Mirotic, Butler, and Gibson.  I don’t think they actually get it done, but it’s definitely possible, and even if they don’t there’s no doubt they are out shopping these picks in other ways.  I’d be surprised if the Bulls keep both of these picks on draft night.  Assuming they do, I think they go with a wing player, depending on who is left.  James Young, Rodney Hood, T.J.Warren, any of them are options.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

Alright I’ve avoided discussing Kevin Love possibilities enough.  

# 16, # 19, Mirotic and Gibson for Kevin Love.  

Pairing Noah and Love in the backcourt would be unbelievable.  This might leave the Bulls a bit thin, but don’t start selling me on how Minnesota would take Carlos Boozer. Come on now.  You can still amnesty Boozer, but with Love’s salary and theoretical extension, the Bulls won’t have enough room left to go get another max player.  There will be some room though.  Maybe a Luol Deng reunion?  Or do you think you could convince Pierce to come join Rose/Butler/Love/Noah?  You could then fill out the rest of the roster with inexpensive shooting like Anthony Morrow, Channing Frye, or Spencer Hawes.

Minnesota fans are just sitting there waiting for their explanation.  At this point, there's no explanation necessary.  Just hope for the best.

#18 - Phoenix Suns

Found on court-side.com, no credit listed.

What I’d Do:

Clint Capela – Switzerland

6’11” (7’4.5” wingspan), 222 lbs., 05/18/1994 (20 years old)

With the second of their three first round picks in this draft, the Phoenix Suns can afford to take a chance. I tried to address their roster situation and options going into the 2014 offseason with my post on #14, and will try to touch on the relevant points to their pick at #18.

#14 - Phoenix Suns

Brace Hemmelgarn/USA Today Sports

What I’d Do:

James Young – Kentucky

6’7” (7’ wingspan), 213 lbs., 08/16/1995 (18 years old)

For a team that was in a full-on rebuild a year ago, the Phoenix Suns don’t have a lot of particular team needs. First-year general manager Ryan McDonough and first-year head coach Jeff Hornacek overhauled the roster last summer, hitting on trades (Eric Bledsoe, Miles Plumlee/Gerald Green) and stacking assets (three first round picks in this draft) while improving the team by 23 wins from the previous season. While the earliest of the three picks is their own at the end of the lottery, they’ll have over $25 million in cap room this summer with eight players on guaranteed contracts in 2014-15. The Phoenix Suns have plenty of options to continue rebuilding this roster in the pursuit of a playoff run next season.