Episode 044 - Observations After Three Weeks and Rookie Expectations

Episode 039 - Rookie Week Podcast

In episode 39, Chris and Paul cover all of the impact rookies entering the 2014-15 NBA season, with some talk on the rebuilding teams in the league.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Rookie Week Picks

In the first week of our 2014-15 NBA Season Preview we took a look at some of the impact rookies entering the NBA. Our five candidates were all interesting, impact prospects from rebuilding teams, who should figure prominently into the Rookie of the Year race. Chris looked at Jabari Parker's NBA-ready game on Monday; Paul discussed Nerlens Noel's need for injury-free minutes while adjusting to a young 76ers team Tuesday; Wednesday was Dante Exum Day, as Chris projected his talents as a potential star guard; Marcus Smart was the subject of Thursday's piece from Paul on toughness; and Friday saw Rookie Week wrap up with Andrew Wiggins and how situation might suit him more in Minnesota.

In this week's podcast, we expanded upon our essays and looked at Parker, Noel, Exum, Smart, and Wiggins closer, but also within the context of their new environments and the talent around them. We also tried to address any other rookies on some of these rebuilding teams, before getting into our All-Rookie 1^st and 2^nd team lineups, and any honorable mentions and or sleepers for the 2015 Rookie of the Year Award.

We’ve tried to narrow down our lists to a few names for each category, but, really, this rookie class is so deep that the honorable mentions list is a legitimate-10 names deep. As always, there are plenty of rookies who struggle to adjust or earn minutes at the NBA level, just as there are second-round picks and undrafted free agents who fight for minutes and carve out roles in the pros. Here are our best guesses for the 2014-15 rookie class:

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Andrew Wiggins

 
The last time the # 1 overall pick was traded before even suiting up for the team that drafted him was in the 1993 draft.  Chris Webber was taken first overall by the Orlando Magic and traded to the Golden State Warriors for Anfernee Hardaway and a few first round picks.  A month before the draft if someone told me that the first pick in this draft (whoever it ended up being) was going to get traded in August, I would have called that person a fool.  Then a series of unbelievable events happened to get us here. First, Cleveland, with a 1.7% chance of winning the lottery, somehow won the lottery (which pissed off Celtics and Lakers fans more than you would believe).  Second, Lebron goes home.  And Third, after Cleveland GM David Griffin was hesitant to include Andrew Wiggins in a potential Kevin Love deal, Glen Taylor and Dan Gilbert undermined their employees by reportedly agreeing in Las Vegas that Wiggins would be part of the eventual deal.

Episode 035 - Injuries, Trades, and Football!

Chris and Paul discuss the Team USA news (Paul George's injury, Kevin Durant's withdrawal), the Kevin Love trade, some NFL preview stuff, and hip-hop groups.

#10 - Philadelphia 76ers

No photo credit listed.

What I'd Do:

Dario Saric – Croatia

6’10” (6’10” wingspan), 223 lbs., 04/08/1994 (20 years old)

Chris explained earlier why Philadelphia is in a great position in this draft and in their franchise’s future. General manager Sam Hinkie has thoroughly rebuilt the roster by clearing talent and acquiring draft picks, including this pick and New Orleans’s first rounder in 2013 (Nerlens Noel) for then-All Star point guard, Jrue Holliday. He drafted Jrue’s replacement in Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams at #11 last year and has Noel fresh after sitting out the entire season coming off of knee surgery. Despite an early-season scare of competence his team went on a historic run of 26-straight losses and moved whatever veterans he could at the trade deadline, resulting in the #3 pick that Chris already broke down. Hinkie has already shown to be among the more patient and shrewd GM’s around and is entering Year 2 of his Philadelphia 76ers rebuild.

#4 - Orlando Magic

Getty Images

What I’d Do:

Dante Exum - Australia

6’6” (6’9.5” wingspan), 196 lbs., 07/13/1995 (18 years old)

It’s been two seasons since the Orlando Magic made the Dwight Howard trade and, despite finishing a combined 78 games under .500 in that span, they’re clearly the winners in the deal. We’ll get to the Lakers and Nuggets later on in this mock but Orlando counted on Nikola Vucevic, Arron Afflalo and Moe Harkless to start games for them this season (albeit for the third-worst team in the league) and still has the #12 pick in this draft, a 2017 Lakers first rounder and a future Philadelphia first coming. Vucevic is a possible long-term piece at center that will be up for an extension next offseason (as will Tobias Harris) and Harkless and Andrew Nicholson will be playing for extensions the following season. Afflalo should have been an All-Star this year and has quietly suggested he would be open to a trade to a playoff contender, and should be a trade asset with two years and $15 million remaining (with 2015-16 a player option).

# 3 - Philadelphia 76ers

via Sports Illustrated

Andrew Wiggins - Kansas

6’8” (7’0” wingspan), 197 lbs, 2/23/1995 (19 years old)

What I’d Do:

If you concede the fact that the top tier of this draft is three deep, the 76ers are in an enviable position.  The risk is taken out of their hands and all of a sudden the guy who was a lock to be the number one pick for almost a full calendar year could fall right into their lap. 

The length and athleticism the trio of MCW, Wiggins, and Noel would provide makes you think they could someday replicate the Heat's ultra-aggressive defensive system.  The rookie of the year race between two guys on the same team would be fun as well.  

This is the perfect scenario for Wiggins too, who by all accounts would rather go to Philadelphia than either Cleveland or Milwaukee.  Who could blame him.  Philadelphia is a brand franchise with some history.  Philadelphia loves their athletes, they will love him too.  They’ll be patient as well.  Philadelphia’s fans were oddly accepting of the rebuilding strategies the front office made last season.  

The downside could be Wiggins developing some more bad habits.  Bill Self reined him in a bit, but Wiggins still made some decisions that would drive Popovic crazy (54 assists vs. 80 turnovers at Kansas).  The comparison to T-Mac seems apt.  They have a similar offensive game at this point, both relying on their athleticism, size, and lift to shoot over anyone at any point.  In his best offensive performances at Kansas, Wiggins was just hitting difficult shots.  Wiggins still needs to develop consistency in that jump shot though, and he struggles going to the basket with strength (only around 7 FTA per 36).  

Let's be honest though.  Wiggins was put on the cover of Sports Illustrated alongside Wilt Chamberlain before he played a game for Kansas.  No pressure kid. He handled the scrutiny and (at times) criticism remarkably.  I have no fear about Andrew Wiggins' development.

Brett Brown let MCW develop some bad habits last year.  It was chalked up to a lost season.  This year, Brett will be under more pressure to begin installing a 'system' to help these young guys develop.  Philadelphia will still be patient, but not as much as last year.  This year, they’ll be looking for direction.

What I Think They’ll Do:

There is almost no chance they pass up on Wiggins, (they seem to be enamored)... but what if...

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

The Sixers have a lot of options with picks 3 and 10, five second round picks, and enough roster flexibility to draft almost any position...

In his e-book on Scribd (The Pattern of Basketball and the 2014 NBA Draft), Jonathan Tjarks (of SBNation) makes a strong case for Dante Exum over Wiggins:

“You have to play Trading Places with these guys - what would happened if Exum was the one on the AAU circuit every summer and Wiggins was in the AIS?  Forget which one has the better highlight tape and who is getting more publicity - passing up Exum to take Wiggins would be a mistake.”

It at least made me think.  What if the Sixers feel that way as well after Exum goes in there and blows them away in a workout?  They take Exum and trade MCW to Sacramento for the #8 pick?  Or to the Knicks for Iman Shumpert?

#2 - Milwaukee Bucks

Mary Langenfeld/USA TODAY Sports

What I'd Do:

Jabari Parker - Duke

6’8” (7’ wingspan), 241 lbs., 03/15/1995

Oh, Milwaukee. So their 2013 offseason plan didn’t really pay off as they intended. Instead of supplementing a young core of bigs, their free agency and trade additions alternated between injury and ineffectiveness, leading to the worst record in the league (!) and this second overall pick. The then-NBA record sale of $550 million (!!) to the Lasry/Edens group in April gives the franchise some long-term stability in Milwaukee and has already brought energy (and attractive daughters) to a fanbase that had to listen to relocation rumors throughout the sale process. The fanbase exists and can ratchet up their rabid-ness when given talented teams but this current roster is far from talented.

After Larry Sanders’s chaotic season (no NBA player needs a publicist more), Giannis Antetokounmpo might be their only true “prospect” or building block, which at the least allows them to draft the best player available at number two. It should be tough to end up with a Darko Milicic or Hasheem Thabeet or Evan Turner in this draft, and picking second might even alleviate some pressure and tough decisions.