2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Marcus Smart

Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports

Marcus Smart isn't exactly a rookie. Okay well, technically, he qualifies as a rookie, after playing the previous two years at Oklahoma State University, but a cursory look into Marcus Smart, the man and the basketball player, reveals that he doesn't exactly carry himself like a rookie as he enters the 2014-15 season.

He probably should have been a rookie last year, instead. In the earliest iterations of his mock drafts Chad Ford had Smart as the second-best prospect eligible for the 2013 Draft, behind big man Nerlens Noel. Selected as a consensus second-team All-American and Big 12 Player (and Freshman) of the Year in the 2012-13 season, Marcus Smart averaged 15.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 3 steals, and 3.4 turnovers in his 33.5 minutes per game, shooting 46.5% on two-point field goals, 29% on threes, and 77.7% from the free throw stripe. He led his Oklahoma State Cowboys to a 28-4 record and #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, before an upset loss at the hands of the Oregon Ducks ended their season and presented quite the conundrum: return to Stillwater for his sophomore season and build on a team that finished third in the Big 12 Conference or turn pro with the chance to be the possible #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft?
Marcus Smart ultimately decided to return to school, along with teammates Le’Bryan Nash and Markel Brown. The announcement was surprising, given that he was a lock to be a top-three pick in one of the worst draft classes in (recent) NBA history and guaranteed a four year contract that would pay him around $5 million per season (in average annual value). Nerlens Noel and Shabazz Muhammed, the top two high school recruits from the Class of 2012, both suffered from a combination of injury and/or ineffectiveness in their only NCAA seasons and dropped out of the Top 5 of the draft completely. The highly-touted 2013 Class would provide tougher competition and offer no similar promise of a top-three pick. Of course, Marcus Smart took the tougher option.
The stories shared by Smart and his family of his experiences growing up in the Dallas area are no joke. The youngest of four boys, Marcus dealt with family tragedy his entire life. His oldest brother, Todd, was diagnosed with cancer at 15 when doctors found a tumor behind his eye that soon spread to his lungs and then his stomach. He lived with the disease in and out of remission for 18 years before passing away when Marcus was nine. A year later saw another brother, Michael, in the hospital after a near-fatal, month-long cocaine binge. His mother, Camellia, has been living with one kidney for decades and has undergone dialysis treatments in recent years. The frustrations manifested in anger in an adolescent Marcus, where he was getting into multiple fights per week before being sent to a 30-day stint in an alternative school.
Through Camellia’s intervention, Marcus sought treatment for his anger issues and devoted himself to his sports (basketball and football). Moving to the suburbs also allowed him an escape from the neighborhoods that claimed Michael, and in high school his basketball game blossomed to the point where he was named a McDonald’s All-American and the tenth-ranked prospect according to ESPN. Purely a rebounder early in his AAU career with a late-developing jump shot, he would average 15.1 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 5 assists per game in his senior season and display his trademark tough defense and leadership abilities.
The concept of toughness itself is an intangible quality that I haven’t the slightest idea how to measure. In our current sports culture it seems to be equated more to a players’ pain tolerance and recovery following an injury, or their competence in “clutch” (close-and-late?) situations, but is it an inherent quality or can it be learned? Is it possible to “toughen up”, and if so, how much does it resemble Happy Gilmore’s offseason workouts? Regardless, after reading their stories of overcoming adversity and displaying optimism in the face of turmoil, Marcus Smart and his family might prove the existence of a hereditary “toughness gene”.
There’s no better example of the toughness Marcus witnessed as a child than that displayed by his brother Todd. Todd discovered his tumor at age 15 and immediately began chemotherapy treatments, returning to and leading his high school basketball team to the state semifinals in his senior season. He suffered from the disease for 18 years, off and on, before passing in January of 2003. Again, toughness itself is difficult to quantify, but waking up and living with the threat of cancer every day for 18 years and never complaining is the very epitome of toughness.
So it’s no surprise that, given his history and the context, Marcus Smart would choose loyalty to OSU for another year over the allure of the NBA. Returning to the team with Brown and Nash put the Cowboys at #8 on the AP Preseason Top 25. After a summer spent averaging just under 10 points a game for the gold medal-winning United States team in the FIBA U19 World Championships, Smart started the season off well, having arguably the best game of his college career in an ESPN-televised game November 19^th against the 11th-ranked Memphis Tigers with a 39 point (on 19 shots), 4 rebound, 4 assist, 5 steal, 2 block, and 3 turnover performance in the victory.

The Cowboys would struggle in 2014, with six of their first seven losses coming after January 1st, including three in a row leading up to a Saturday night, ESPN game at Texas Tech. Late into the losing effort, Smart fell into the crowd and pushed a fan who he said called him a racial epithet, resulting in a technical foul and a three-game suspension from the NCAA. Smart and head coach Travis Ford would later downplay questions as to what was said while the fan, a booster of Texas Tech, voluntarily stopped attending games and somehow escaped further punishment. While some, such as the color commentator in that broadcast, would rush to condemn Marcus Smart’s reaction, the almost-universal respect for the quality of his character would make the incident a total non-issue come draft time.

More troubling was Oklahoma State’s record on the season. That three-game losing streak would turn to seven with Smart suspended, and the team’s 21-12 record resulted in a #9 seed and another opening round loss in the NCAA Tournament. His numbers didn’t take a huge jump in his second season but Smart did increase his stat-line to 18 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.8 APG, and 2.6 turnovers with 51.4%/29.9%/72.8% on 2’s, 3’s, and FT’s, on almost a minute less per game. This time there was no quandary; Marcus entered the 2014 NBA Draft.

In Chad Ford’s first mock draft of 2014 (actually September of 2013), Marcus Smart was listed at #3, ahead of Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid, and Ford addressed his jump shot and handle as areas that needed consistency over the 2013-14 season. Smart slid between the #’s 4-8 spots in the next 10 versions of Ford’s mocks before ultimately going #6 to the Boston Celtics in the 2014 Draft. The rumors leading up to the draft were almost unanimous in praising Smart’s intensity and performances in team workouts, and his one-on-one workouts against Elfrid Payton must have been bloodbaths. 

Marcus Smart 2013-14 shot chart at Oklahoma State, www.nyloncalculus.com

When putting together our Mock Draft Project, I had Marcus going #8 to Sacramento, even though the word at the time was that Danny Ainge was smitten. My train of thought was that the Boston Celtics had enough talent at the guard position between Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley (plus Marcus Thornton, after a three-way trade) and would pass on a potential point guard prospect in favor of a dominant big man or a wing that could shoot the three-ball. Instead, Celtics president and general manager Danny Ainge focused on landing the best player available at the sixth pick and drafted Marcus Smart.

Smart immediately signed and suited up for the Celtics team in the Orlando Summer League, where he started all five games and struggled, predictably, with his jump shot. Shooting just 29.4% from the field and 25.9% from 3, he still averaged a respectable 14.8 points, 4.2 boards, 4.2 dimes, and 2 steals per game, with the requisite ball pressure and physicality. The first two games in Orlando were a struggle, as he adjusted to new teammates and a new role playing off the ball next to Phil Pressey. By the end of the week he was playing with much more confidence and getting into the lane more frequently, rather than settling for jumpers.  

A few weeks after playing in the Orlando Summer League he was invited to the Team USA training camps in Las Vegas, with the (slim) hopes of making the roster before the FIBA World Cup in August. He was one of two rookies even invited to the camp, with Chicago Bull Doug McDermott, and by the second day was already drawing praise from national reporters with his defensive tenacity (ho-hum) and confidence shooting the ball (whaaaaat?!). Oh and texts from head coach Mike Krzyzewski too.

Marcus Smart is still a raw prospect, at 20 years old, with a few inconsistent aspects to his game. Most glaring, despite the Team USA reports, are his jump shot and shooting efficiency numbers. His 29% from 3 at Ok State stayed consistent(ly bad, boom!) but his field goal, true shooting, and effective field goal percentages all increased over two points in his sophomore campaign. 

Another jump could come from more confidence in his skills in the half-court game. He was below average in percent of pick-and-roll plays run and in jump shooting (both off-the-dribble and from catch-and-shoots) in college. It’s still unclear if he has the handle and court vision to start at point guard in the NBA or if he’s best utilized as an undersized two-guard, a la Avery Bradley. With Rajon Rondo still on the roster and a head coach in Brad Stevens who could expand his responsibilities as the season progresses, Smart just needs reps and consistent minutes as a point guard at the next level.

In particular, he needs to see the complex defenses and run some pro pick-and-rolls to make the adjustment to a full-time point guard. Even if the jumper takes a while to develop, he can get by okay, offensively. His body is already NBA-ready, at 6’4” and 227 lbs. with a 6’8” wingspan, and he was adept at drawing free throws in his two seasons as a Cowboy (6.5 attempts per game as a freshman, 8.1 as a sophomore). In his limited P&R plays he drew free throws on over a quarter of his possessions, using his strong upper body to get into the lane and initiate contact. He has the speed and athleticism to use a crossover or the pick to penetrate the defense and draw help defenders or get to the line. 
Getting into the paint will be a huge key to his game, as he was excellent in finishing around the rim last year and shows some touch on his floater in the in-between area. Marcus can also score in a variety of ways, using post ups or catching the ball off of screens, but improving his jumper will increase his options from those spots.

Smart’s jumper isn’t broken, he just has a couple of mechanical flaws which serve to lengthen his stroke. He brings the ball down to his waist before rising up on the release, which he delivers from in front of his forehead. If he shortened the dip motion and had a slightly higher release point the shot form almost looks like Rashard Lewis, with the wide-base but without the accuracy. He’ll get stripped frequently in the pros if he continues to bring the ball down so low on his rise. Smart sometimes struggles finishing squared away to the basket on his follow-through, but he gets good arc on his release and back spin on the ball.

He actually has confidence in his jumper, but perhaps too much so last year. He averaged 5.3 three point attempts per game on under 30%, with many of them early in the shot clock or pull-up jumpers in transition. Until he clears up his mechanics, particularly the dip and rushed follow-through, the shot selection and bad jumpers need to improve and hopefully substitute for shots in the paint, free throws, or catch-and-shoot looks. Focusing on running an offense should dissuade Smart from taking as many (bad) shots in the pros, but his tentativeness in his first couple of Orlando Summer League games resulted in less penetration and more jacking long jumpers. A little bit of confidence in his jump shot is important but maybe not as important as confidence in his athleticism and ability to get into the paint to cause chaos.

A question I still have concerning Marcus Smart’s desire to run point is his passing prowess and how he sees the floor. He’s posted good passing numbers at Oklahoma State and he uses his versatile game to move the ball from different positions, from the post, to penetrating-and-kicking, to transition. He’s most effective when instigating the tempo and generating offense from turnovers and long rebounds, and has no issues with giving it up when running with numbers. My concerns on his advanced passing skills revolve around him controlling the pace and familiarizing himself with the pick-and-roll offense, and learning how to move the ball against the quicker and better defenses he’ll see. Playing point guard in the league is difficult.

Smart will impact the game immediately on the defensive end. A hard-working and tough-minded competitor on the basketball court, somehow his intensity and athleticism amplifies on defense and he uses his physical tools and instincts to harass opponents on- and off-ball. He slides his feet exceptionally well and often gets to their spots before the offensive player, where he can slide in to take charges. At times, however, he will over-rely on trying to force the turnover and blatantly flop instead of playing his man into a tougher angle. His size allows him to guard all three perimeter positions, and the wingspan could be a tough combatant against NBA big men to compensate for his lack of height.

In two seasons at Oklahoma State, Smart is 15th on the Big 12’s all-time steals list, and he led the conference in single season steals, free throws, and defensive win shares last season. Rebounding is another major strength to Marcus Smart’s game, going back to his early days of AAU ball. The Celtics team under Brad Stevens last year was seventh in offensive rebounding, and he might allow Smart to hit the offensive boards from the guard spot.

A three-guard rotation of Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, and Marcus Smart will do serious damage on defense next season. All three love to play aggressively and pressure the ball, with Bradley in particular taking personal pleasure in harassing ball-handlers in the opposing teams’ backcourt. Playing them together and letting them press and run wild could be one of the few exciting moments for the 2014-15 Celtics team. It was only a few years ago that Rondo was playing decent defense on LeBron James in an Eastern Conference Finals, and although he’s a more reckless and less-disciplined defender today, he can still switch and help at will. The guard rotation will have to be aggressive in pressuring the ball and bodying up on defense, because the bigs all profile as average to below-average.

Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, Brandon Bass, and Tyler Zeller figure to get the most minutes at power forward and center for the Boston Celtics. None are true shot blockers or are especially agile enough to step out and swarm on defense. Sullinger and Zeller are strong rebounders who set solid screens and box out, while Olynyk is a jump shooter who battled injuries and strength issues as a rookie. Sullinger became more perimeter-oriented last year as he tried to establish his three point shot, and Tyler Zeller is a solid pick-and-pop big man with a FT line jump shot and basic post game. Bass is a good sixth man and first big off the bench, who can rebound and defend a little. He was overmatched as a starter towards the end of the Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce era but is a great jump shooter from under 20 feet and can help a playoff team as a third big.

The 2014-15 Boston Celtics roster is a mess, though. In Year Two of the Next Great Celtics Rebuild, Danny Ainge has thus far assembled (some) talent that doesn’t exactly fit together. The team lacks serious shooting, and the only perimeter threats should be traded to other teams by the trade deadline (Jeff Green, Marcus Thornton, Brandon Bass). Avery Bradley was re-signed to a four-year, $32 million dollar deal despite never finishing a season in his four-year career. Rajon Rondo’s name is constantly in trade rumors (due to ownership and Ainge), diminishing his trade value every day he gets closer to his contract expiration date at the end of the season. Sullinger, Olynyk, and Zeller are complementary pieces that will get heavy minutes in extended roles, but will have to develop or play for their second contracts on a bad team.

The real rebuild began this summer, with the first top-10 Celtics draft pick since 2007 and the beginning of the draft pick bounty the team received for KG and PP. The building blocks of the next great Celtics team were ostensibly selected in the 2014 Draft with Marcus Smart and James Young at #6 and #17, respectively. Young has explosive upside as a scorer and shooter from the wing position, but is still recovering from injuries and has farther to go to reach his upside, as he’s still 18 years old. I may or may not be already clamoring for a Jeff Green trade and giving Young 30 minutes a night to get up shots alongside Marcus Smart, who will make his impact immediately in the NBA.

The jump shot will be a full year away, at least, for Marcus Smart. Stevens and his coaching staff will get to work in training camp on his dip-down release on jump shots and finishing his follow-through, and he should show progress throughout the season, but the 3-pointer will be the last piece to come together. Playing with Rondo could be good for his catch-and-shoot repetition and getting cleaner looks but I’d almost prefer he focus purely on gaining confidence as a point guard and running offense in the half-court first. The speed, motion, and complexity of offensive and defensive sets at the professional level is quite amplified compared to his experiences in the Big 12, but his competence and confidence in Team USA camp is maybe the best sign towards Marcus Smart’s future development as a foundation piece for the Boston Celtics.

Even without a great jumper, his strength, intelligence, and ball-handling skills translate well to the pros. Combining with his incredible instincts on defense could safely set his NBA floor at a pre-injury Tony Allen (but a little stronger and *sigh* with less of a vertical leap than a young TA), at least on the defensive end, or Tyreke Evans (WAY better defender but less offensively inclined as ‘Reke) as a big, strong power-guard.  Regardless of his ultimate comparison or position, Marcus Smart will succeed in the NBA. His toughness and maturity have helped him persevere the tragedies in his path and grow as a person and a basketball player, but to reach his potential as a game-changing player in the NBA will be an exceptionally difficult and challenging task. He’s lucky he’s got good genetics.