Friday, October 3, 2014

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Andrew Wiggins

 
The last time the # 1 overall pick was traded before even suiting up for the team that drafted him was in the 1993 draft.  Chris Webber was taken first overall by the Orlando Magic and traded to the Golden State Warriors for Anfernee Hardaway and a few first round picks.  A month before the draft if someone told me that the first pick in this draft (whoever it ended up being) was going to get traded in August, I would have called that person a fool.  Then a series of unbelievable events happened to get us here. First, Cleveland, with a 1.7% chance of winning the lottery, somehow won the lottery (which pissed off Celtics and Lakers fans more than you would believe).  Second, Lebron goes home.  And Third, after Cleveland GM David Griffin was hesitant to include Andrew Wiggins in a potential Kevin Love deal, Glen Taylor and Dan Gilbert undermined their employees by reportedly agreeing in Las Vegas that Wiggins would be part of the eventual deal.



Rather, than rehash whether or not Cleveland should have included Wiggins in the deal, I’m more interested in the question, what would have been better for Andrew Wiggins?  Which situation, Cleveland or Minnesota, would allow Andrew Wiggins to develop to his fullest potential?  Would playing with great players with the highest of expectations, players with the highest levels of experience, allow Wiggins to develop in the ‘right’ way?  Would he be groomed by Lebron and company to be the heir apparent?  Or would playing with so many other talented players stifle his development?  Would they only utilize Wiggins to do the things they need him to do in order to win their championships?  Would being asked to do things outside his comfort zone for a young team thirsty for a leader force him to develop aspects of his game (physically and mentally) that he never would have to do playing in Cleveland?  Which is the more ideal route?  It’s hard to say.

Andrew Wiggins is so good that after a Freshman season at Kansas where he ‘didn’t live up to the hype’, he was drafted # 1 overall in one of the most loaded drafts of the past twenty years.  Wiggins was on the cover of Sports Illustrated with Danny Manning and Wilt Chamberlain (!) in the background before ever playing a game for Kansas.  He was the most hyped high school prospect since Lebron.  

Wiggins averaged 17.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game for a loaded (but young) Kansas team that went 24-10 and captured a # 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.  Overall, Wiggins played well, but he was inconsistent.  He had 6 games where he scored in the single digits.  On a talented team, with another player shooting up draft boards (Joel Embiid), many believed he was too passive and when Embiid was injured for the tournament Wiggins had a 1-6 shooting performance in a loss against Stanford when his team needed him the most.  This is a criticism that has followed Wiggins at every level of basketball, but he was also playing for Kansas, not Kentucky.  It was well known going into the season, that Bill Self would apply structure and that although he had some extremely talented freshmen, each would have to fit into his system.

The Sporting News had a great piece trying to debunk some of this criticism.  They included some very interesting quotes from ‘a pre-draft scouting report on one of the most prominent sites that covers the NBA draft’.  Here are some of the quotes they pulled about Kevin Durant.  In retrospect, these just look silly:

‘Does he have the fire inside to maximize his abilities and develop a killer instinct? He has a laid back demeanor; will he continue to work hard after he starts cashing 7-figure checks?’

And another:

‘One aspect of his game that was put on center stage throughout the (NCAA) tournament was his tendency to disappear throughout stretches of the game. For 10 minutes, you will be watching the best player the college game has had to offer in the last 10 years. Then for 5 minutes, you will forget that he is even on the floor offensively.’

Does that sound familiar?  Wiggins had some special nights though.  He had a 26 point, 11 rebound performance in December against Florida, and a 17 point, 19 rebound performance against Iowa State in January.  Then there was a four game stretch when Kansas was without Embiid that included two conference tournament games where he averaged 28 points a game and made 36 of 44 free throw attempts.  During that stretch was a game against West Virginia that displayed the type of player he could someday become.  Wiggins scored 41 points, had 8 rebounds, 5 steals, and 4 blocks.

 


Stop.  Watch that clip.  Wiggins was unleashing holy hell on West Virginia: blocking jumpshots, crashing the offensive boards like TJ Warren, single-handedly shutting down two-on-one fast breaks, getting to the free throw line (15 makes on 19 attempts), and then the jump shot started falling and it was all over.

That’s the Andrew Wiggins that Minnesota is hoping to develop.  The guy who can dominate on both sides of the ball.  They’re (Flip at least) already impressed with his defensive abilities, as they should be. Personally, I think the general masses are over-blowing his offensive struggles. He shot 49% on 2’s and 34% on 3’s.  Neither of those are impressive, but neither are truly concerning either.  The fact that he shot 27% and 31% from the left and right corner respectively made me raise one eyebrow, but he was strong from the top of the key at 45%. That makes sense to the eye test as well.  It seems at this point Wiggins looks much more comfortable shooting off the dribble (especially going right) than in spot up situations.  His pull-up jumper reminds me of McGrady’s and that’s a high compliment.  

What really carried Wiggins offensive product at Kansas and what will be important for him to have early success in the league is his ability to score around the basket and get to the free throw line.  Although his handle is still a work in progress, he can take two or three dribbles in a straight line and with his athleticism that’s all he needs to get to the hoop.  He shot 61% around the basket, a very solid number.  He also generated 58.3 free throws per 100 field goal attempts and made 78% of them (hat tip: Shot Analytics).  That alone will allow Wiggins to score at a moderate level earlier than many are expecting.
To me, Wiggins basement is not-quite-as-good-a-passer Andre Iguodala or a more athletic Demar Derozan.  And it’s been widely speculated that he has no ceiling.  Given players typically develop somewhere in between, I could see him becoming a better version of Paul George.  And we don’t even know how good Paul George is going to get.  

So how much does the Minnesota trade affect that?  For one perspective, time will tell. For the other?  We’ll never know.  It’s hard to imagine that playing with Lebron James on a daily basis would not have been beneficial; learning from James how to handle outside pressures, how to be a businessman, a professional, a champion.  On the other hand, he may have never been pushed to become more than reliable on offense. Maybe that’s best.  Maybe he didn’t need to focus on those things until after he interned with Lebron for 4 season.

In Minnesota though, that won’t be the case.  Flip will talk a big game.  Wiggins may not even start on opening night.  But at some point this season, they are going to rely on Andrew Wiggins not only defensively but offensively.  He will be thrown into those situations as early as this year. We’ll have to wait to see how he does.



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