Chris and Paul overreact after the first six days of the NBA regular season and share some thoughts on teams that they’ve watched and teams they need to, beginning with the Detroit Pistons and ending on the San Antonio Spurs, before discussing the recent sports media news.
The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.
Paul: Last week’s Give and Go focused on predicting the dominant narratives of this upcoming NBA season, but I’ll ask you this week instead: which preseason narrative and situation are you most interested in? You mentioned the Golden State Warriors winning a championship by playing position-less basketball last season, so are you more interested in seeing them attempt to repeat as champions or, for example, the San Antonio Spurs as they work to integrate their new pieces into Gregg Popovich’s system? Dare I say it’s been a relatively quiet preseason - outside of an awful injury to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - but which team has caught your eye early on?
With Chris on vacation this week, Paul is joined by Jonah Jordan (of Grizzly Bear Blues and the University of Memphis’ Daily Helmsman) to discuss his history with the Memphis Grizzlies and their 2015-16 season outlook. Topics include Mike Conley’s future with the team and anxiety over Marc Gasol’s free agency experience, two-way players at the two-guard position, young Grizzlies, Skal Labissiere and the 2016 draft class, and a couple of NBA teams with rookie head coaches from the collegiate levels, in the Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder, before Jonah gives his bottom-5 teams next season and a bold prediction in the Western Conference playoff picture. They then discuss recent movies and the approaching Star Wars release, plus Narcos, BoJack Horseman, and Rick and Morty on television, and then get sidetracked by some Markieff Morris breaking news/tweets, Grantland fallout, and a breakdown of the Memphis media landscape.
Chris and Paul discuss Steve Nash’s retirement for the first ten minutes of the podcast, and then break down the field for the Western and Eastern Conference’s last couple of playoff spots.
In total, 37 players were involved in trades on Thursday alone and about a dozen draft picks changed hands. Here’s my best account of rationalizing and breaking down each trade in the chronological order in which they broke, in the hours leading up to Thursday’s 3pm (EST) trade deadline - outside of that last half hour to 20-minute stretch that closed out the activity, when my head might have momentarily exploded. Most of the information has been referenced from SBNation’s concise trade listings, and I’ve used the always clutch Pro Sports Transactions for any future draft picks that were moved.
Chris and Paul begin with last Friday’s Golden State Warriors/Atlanta Hawks game and then go through some NBA news before breaking down All-Star weekend and the Grammys, Oscar movies, and TV premieres.
The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.
Paul: It was just a few weeks ago that we bemoaned the lack of trades in the 2014-15 NBA season. Since then we’ve had a few Celtics trades, a high-profile release that’s turned around the season of the Detroit Pistons, and a number of potential contenders who have upgraded their teams for the second half of the season (AKA the “Western Conference arms race”).
This week’s Give and Go question will be simple: Which team’s transaction(s) do you like the most and believe upgrades them for a playoff push? Alternately, which move still confounds you?
Credit: AP Photo/ Bill Kostroun & Kent Smith/NBAE via Getty Images
The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.
Chris: Alright Mitchell, after a holiday hiatus we’re back and on Monday night of the first ‘back to work’ week of the new year there was a Twitter explosion. Half of the fun was the crazy rumors (Reggie Jackson to the Knicks) flying around when the trade happened, as even Woj wasn’t quite sure what was happening. After the dust settled, here’s the deal:
The Cavs acquire Iman Shumpert and J. R. Smith and a 2015 protected first round pick (OKC).
The Oklahoma City Thunder acquire Dion Waiters.
The New York Knicks acquire Lance Thomas (OKC), Alex Kirk (CLE), Lou Amundson (CLE), and a 2019 second round pick (in a pure salary dump).
The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.
Paul: We’ve entered the sixth week of the NBA’s 2014-15 season, and I feel like we can finally start looking at the stats and numbers without the small sample size caveat. Teams that found themselves struggling for the first few weeks of the season have begun to figure some things out (or vice versa), and maybe we’re at a point that we can revisit some of our preseason predictions and re-evaluate. So I’m wondering, which team(s) are you ready to admit that you were wrong about heading into this season, for better or worse?
Chris: That’s actually kind of difficult. As you mentioned, we’re dangerously close to a point where small sample size loses it’s steam. Although, if you look back at last season, teams like Toronto and Brooklyn, and even Indiana and Portland to some degree, showed that a lot can happen between January 1st and the end of April. But things have already started to level off a little bit this season. I picked the Clippers to have the best record in the West for the regular season and after three weeks that looked ridiculous. But today, even though they are 7th in the West after five straight wins, they’re only three wins back of first. If I posed this question to you two weeks ago or even last week, you might have said that you were way off in thinking Denver was a frisky playoff contender, but they’ve won 8 of 10 and are a half game out of the 8 spot.
Charlotte’s too obvious (and I thought they might struggle, though not this much) so I’m actually going to go with Phoenix. Don’t get me wrong, I loved watching the Suns last season, but they got a career year out of Goran Dragic that I didn’t think was possible to replicate even before Isaiah Thomas was brought in. They lost Channing Frye, one of their most reliable big men, and so many of their role players from last year had career seasons (Gerald Green, P.J. Tucker, The Morris Twins). I didn’t expect them to fall apart completely, but I thought they would have a 2013 Minnesota-like, 40-42 season, never really having a chance at the playoffs.
That’s not the case. Phoenix will be in the mix until April and that race for the 8 seed is going to be crazy. OKC will be charging with Durant and Westbrook both playing this week. As I mentioned, Denver could be in the mix if their play continues (especially Ty Lawson), and you have young upstarts in Sacramento and New Orleans that are going to hang around. Phoenix has withstood poor starts by both their star point guards to cling to that 8th seed in an insanely difficult West all amid ‘media reports’ swirling as Isaiah Thomas comes off the bench and wins Phoenix games. Thomas and Green have been dynamic, combining to average 29.9 points per game and an outlandish 47.7 points per 36 minutes. Markieff Morris has been great as a starter, averaging 14.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, and they’ve even gotten some really solid contributions out of second year center Alex Len, adding to their already gluttonous depth at a position of need on the bench unit.
I’ve been impressed with Phoenix’s resolve. At the start of the season, I saw them as a regression candidate, but now I see them as a young team that continues to develop and would love to get some playoff experience much like last season’s Wizards. What were you wrong about?
Paul: Well, you mean besides picking Russell Westbrook to win the MVP award, and leaving Elfrid Payton off of both of my All-Rookie teams? I’ll try to stick to teams, though.
First off, we, and every other NBA writer and prognosticator, will probably be wrong on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Injuries suck. Russell came back last week and Kevin Durant is mere hours away from making his season debut and shredding Tyreke Evans and John SaLOLmons. I have no doubt a healthy Thunder squad will play .600 basketball in the next few months and will present major match-up issues if they finish with a #7 or 8 seed in the Western Conference. So maybe the Thunder won’t be a top-three seed, like most of us assumed in the preseason and before all the injuries hit, but they will be a playoff team, and watching KD and Russ play with a “sense of urgency” to overcompensate for the team’s 4-12 record in their absence should be amazing.
This whole exercise could look foolish if we look back on it in a couple of months, much as it would have last season after burying the Nets, Raptors, and Grizzlies early into the schedule. I liked Denver’s depth enough to think they could finish over .500 and claim the 9th spot in the West, ala “last year's Phoenix Suns”, and even though they’ve battled back to win 8 of their last 10 games, Ty Lawson really needs to play like an All-Star for this team to reach that level.
I’m a bit hesitant to claim the same with the Charlotte Hornets, in case they make a trade or get Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back healthy and go on a run, but 10 games under .500 by December 1st is a tough hole to climb out of, especially for a team that can’t score. Lance Stephenson and Kemba Walker haven’t really gelled yet in the same backcourt, and neither are great catch-and-shoot players who can spot up off of the others’ drives, but head coach Steve Clifford has to get the team back to shutting off the paint and playing top-10 defense. I’m optimistic that Rich Cho can add another shooter throughout the season, whether a minor piece or a starter-type, but if last season's defensive dominance was a fluke then it’ll be a long season in Charlotte.
On the optimistic side of the spectrum, the Sacramento Kings have been everybody’s surprise team after the first couple of weeks, but injuries to DeMarcus “BOOGIE!” Cousins and Rudy Gay have sapped some of the acclaim, as they’ve lost their last three games and 6 of their last 10. They’re about average to slightly-below on both sides of the ball, but leading the league in rebounding percentage and free throw attempts per game. Younger pieces like Darren Collison and Ben McLemore have shown signs of competence, along with steady veteran big men Reggie Evans and Chuck Hayes. Talk about another team that could use a shooter, though…
Finally, I was wrong about the Portland Trail Blazers, but especially their offseason additions. I had Terry Stotts’s squad as my regression candidate in the Western Conference, falling to the 8th seed after finishing 5th last season, due mostly to my high esteem for the rest of the conference and unfavorable opinion of Steve Blake and Chris Kaman to back up at the point guard and center positions, respectively. Instead, Kaman is averaging 11.1 points and 7.2 boards (in just 19.3 minutes) on 50.6% shooting, while Blake is still struggling shooting the ball (4.4 points on 34.8% on 2’s and 31.5% on 3’s) but is averaging 4.5 assists in 22.1 minutes per game. Wes Matthews has been exceptional so far in his contract year (18.8 points with 61.1/40.9/66.7 triple-slash percentages), along with team leaders Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Nic Batum’s injury was mostly offset by bench players like C.J. McCollum, Will “The Thrill” Barton, and even Meyers Leonard stepping up, and the Blazers sit at 13-4 with the 4th-ranked offense and 6th-best defense. The West is so good that the Blazers could still fall to the 8th seed by the end of the season, separated by merely a couple of games in the standings, but the team has improved its defense and depth from last season and look like a top-4 seed in the loaded Western Conference. My bad, Blazers fans.
In the final podcast before the start of the 2014-15 NBA season, Chris and Paul finish up their season previews by discussing their five title contenders. They finish by breaking down each conference's playoff teams and possible MVP candidates, but also cover the value of the mid-range jump shot, Byron Scott's disdain for 3's and analytics, and if the Milwaukee Bucks can scrap the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference.
The San Antonio Spurs will enter the 2014-15 season as the defending champions and deepest team in the league, with as great an opportunity as any in their franchise’s history to repeat as champions. Their entire team from last year was retained by general manager R.C. Buford this offseason, plus draft pick Kyle Anderson with the last pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, giving the Spurs a solid 13 or so players on the roster (depending on how you feel about Jeff Ayres or Austin Daye). Head coach Gregg Popovich will again attempt to limit his players’ minutes to under 30 per game to utilize his depth and keep his starters healthy for the playoffs, as three bench players last season averaged double figures in points per game. Tim Duncan, future Hall of Famer and one of the greatest players in the game’s history, will return for his 17th season, joining fellow-future Hall of Famers Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Popovich. As in last years’ playoffs with the San Antonio Spurs, though, their upside as a team and title favorite lie with their fourth-year small forward, Kawhi Leonard.
In retrospect, the 2013-14 season
of the Oklahoma City Thunder came down to Game 5 of the Western Conference
Finals. The San Antonio Spurs quickly gained the 2-0 advantage after the first
two games in Texas, but the return of Serge Ibaka allowed the Thunder defense
to even up the series before heading back to San Antonio for the pivotal fifth
game. Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich substituted shooter Matt Bonner into the
starting lineup in place of center Tiago Splitter, and it was the overall depth
of the Spurs and the 55-26 disparity in bench scoring that cost the Thunder the
game. A five-point loss in overtime of Game 6 sealed their season, and general
manager Sam Presti’s approach to building the 2014-15 team began with
addressing the roster’s depth and bench issues in the offseason.
Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph (photo credit not found)
Marc Gasol has single-handedly validated the Pau Gasol trade
for the Memphis Grizzlies. Never have two brothers been traded for each other
in NBA history, and rarely have the draft rights to second-round picks been the
foundation of a trade for a franchise player before. The trade was decisively derided as the
Grizzlies giving away talent to the big-market Los Angeles Lakers, as the other
pieces to the trade were Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie, and two
first round picks that each became the #28 picks in the 2008 and 2010 NBA
Drafts. Marc Gasol, meanwhile, would return to his adopted-home in Memphis
after his “college” years in his home country of Spain, and, six seasons later, will
assuredly hit free agency next summer before re-signing with the Memphis
Grizzlies.
Last season, the Oklahoma City Thunder were matched up against the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. It was exactly the matchup we expected all season long. The Spurs, however, did fall into some luck. While OKC was enduring one of the most physical series of last year's playoffs against Memphis, the Spurs were matched up against the worst defense of all the playoff teams in the Dallas Mavericks. Sure that series went 7 games, but I won’t accept the argument that the Thunder didn’t exert more energy, physically and mentally, to advance to the second round than the Spurs did.
7’3” (7’9” wingspan), 265 lbs., 03/22/1992 (22 years old)
Walter Tavares is far from your average freakishly huge, potential-stiff of a big man. If he ever comes over to the league he’ll be a walking dunk-prop and will have the infamous target on his back, as happens with every no doubt seven footer. I really wanted to make the Hasheem Thabeet comparisons when I first saw Tavares on video, and giggled a little when I saw him run, but he’s actually pretty agile for someone that gigantic and I’m a fan of him to the Oklahoma City Thunder at pick #29.
6’8” (6’8” wingspan), 208 lbs, 10/20/1992 (21 years old)
The Thunder need to replenish those role players around Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, and even Reggie Jackson. They relied too much on Derek Fisher, Caron Butler, and Thabo and it came back to haunt them against the Spurs. Steven Adams will be a nice fit and will continue to contribute as a supporting cast member. The fact that they couldn’t rely on either Perry Jones or Jeremy Lamb was a problem.
I feel like they really botched the Jeremy Lamb thing. Before the All-Star break Lamb was averaging 10 points on 45 FG% and almost 37 3PT% in 22 minutes and it seemed he was coming around a bit defensively (Tangent: This would have been the biggest development. If he could play D for them and knock down 37% of his three’s he immediately replaces Thabo). After the All-Star game (coinciding nicely with the Caron Butler acquisition) he averaged 5 points in 14 minutes and shot a horrific 36% from the field (32 % from 3). He fell out of the rotation. No wonder he wasn’t able to answer the call when Scott Brooks got desperate in the playoffs after Thabo became completely ineffective.
The Thunder have two first round picks this year, which will help, but they are likely getting either limited role players or complete projects in the at 21 and 29. Either/or is fine really, but they need to get at least one contributor in this draft. Rodney Hood might not even last this long, but if he does, the Thunder should snatch him up. He will provide the consistent outside shooting this team desperately needed last season to help space the floor. He was 42% 3 point shooter who posted an impressive 1.13 PPP in catch and shoot situations and his size and high release point allow him to get that shot off consistently.
Although, that may be all OKC needs him for initially, his shooting numbers are very good off the bounce and in the pick and roll as well. Overall in the pick and roll he posted an efficient 1.25 PPP and he is an underrated passer. Again, he’s not just a stand still shooter. He can shoot off the dribble, can drive and kick, and has improved getting to the basket (he needs to add more strength to really be effective at the NBA level).
His real downside is defensively. His wingspan is limited, but he has great size for his position and is able to move pretty well laterally. Most of his defensive shortcomings come from lack of effort. It does make you wonder though. Coach K didn’t even bother trying to coach him up to an adequate college defender. Or maybe he was trying and wasn’t getting results. In either case, Rodney Hood was being hidden away defensively any chance Coach K could get.
Ultimately, his shooting and offensive upside can help the Thunder. It’s not like Caron Butler was playing lock down D anyway.
What I Think They’ll Do:
I’m intrigued by them packaging 21 and 29 to move up into the late teens to get a bit more stable prospect. I can’t pick out the partner though. I think Kyle Anderson is intriguing here as well. That’s who Chad Ford has in his latest mock. Anderson gives them a little depth up front and adds playmaking to a team that could use it. He doesn’t defend either though. The nature of the 21st pick I suppose. If Payne or Saric happen to fall to them I think they should jump on it. Payne would be ideal, could contribute right away, and may even make it easier to amnesty Perkins. Saric was out of their range until the news that he re-signed in Europe. He would be a steal this late and Presti could view him as an asset as they continue to build. It would put pressure on them to get a rotation player at 29, but I think it’s worth the risk.
Crazy Draft Day Trade:
I’m all in on trading Tyson Chandler and ever since he almost went to Oklahoma City I’ve been trying to conceive of ways to get him there. Here’s the deal:
OKC gets:Tyson Chandler
Shumpert
Prigioni
Aldrich
$$ Cash $$
Knicks get:Reggie Jackson
Either the # 21 or # 29 pick (not both)
Perkins (expiring contract next season)
Thabeet (expiring contract next season)
Andre Roberson
Knicks get into the first round, their PG for the future and some expiring contracts (wait, is the Perkins contract all of a sudden a bit of an asset?)
OKC? Well how does Westbrook/Shumpert/Durant/Ibaka/Chandler sound as the best defensive lineup of all time? Prigioni as backup point outside of New York sounds great and you can play him and Russ together. Also, Ibaka, Chandler, Adams, Collison as your big man rotation and you can play Durant at the four whenever you want to change the pace. I don’t really see why either team says no.
