#8 - Sacramento Kings

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What I’d Do:

Marcus Smart – Oklahoma State

6’3” (6’9.25” wingspan), 227 lbs., 03/06/1994 (20 years old)

I promised myself if I had to write up the Sacramento Kings’s offseason and draft situation I would only mention the Rudy Gay/player option drama once. I’ll try to make it quick.

How low does your self-esteem have to be as a franchise to send your owner, general manager, head coach, Chris Mullins, Mitch Richmond AND the cool VR stadium-tour glasses to recruit Rudy Gay to opt INTO a contract that would pay him $19 million for the 2014-15 season?

Chalk this certain situation up to one of the many thousands of instances as to why I could never make decisions for an NBA franchise, as I would be sending Scot Pollard to his house with a lifetime supply of Nintendo Virtual Boys, begging him to opt OUT. I’d be feeding fake stories to Adrian Wojnarowski or David Aldridge daily that cited unnamed sources from teams with cap space that would love to max him out again, if he only opted out this summer. For that $19 million I could even hire the ESPN editorial team to start spinning their offseason coverage as “The Summer of Rudy”. You’d wake up every morning in July to Stephen A. and Skip debating where Gay ranks on the Rudy Mt. Rushmore, alongside Tomjanovich, Huxtable, and Sean Astin.

He played well in Sacramento after the trade, sacrificing about three shots per game from Toronto to the Kings but shooting 10% better from the field. His FG%, FT%, FTA, and assists per game numbers after the trade would be career-highs over a full season, and he also matched his previous mark in points per game at 20.1. He lost some rebounds in the conversion but cut out almost a full 3PTA per game from the year prior.

If Vivek Renadive and his new Kings front office want to keep Rudy Gay in Sacramento long-term, I wouldn’t blame them at all. They could easily go to him before June 30th with a multi-year extension in the $10-12 million range in average annual value to keep him around into the post-prime portion of his career. Picking up the option puts the Kings already over the projected cap in 2015, though, and leaves them only about $8 million under the luxury tax threshold from which to resign any of their other free agents (Isaiah Thomas, Aaron Gray) or add talent using any exceptions.

This Kings team finished with the third-worst record in the Western Conference and has $66 million committed to 10 players next year (with Gay). They were 20th in Offensive Rating and 23rd in defense under first-year head coach Mike Malone, but 4th in FTA and Offensive Rebound %, and 10th in team points in the paint.

Franchise player DeMarcus “Boogie” Cousins had a huge year, with averages of 22.7 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.5 turnovers (and 3.5 turnovers) per game, with 49.6% from the floor and 72.6% from the FT line (on 8.4 attempts). He still led the league in technical fouls but seemed to show some strides in leadership abilities and is at least taking defense semi-seriously. He’ll enter the first year of his extension next season, and his battles against Anthony Davis are already one of the underrated rivalries in the Western Conference.

The power forward position in Sacramento, though, is a mess. Derrick Williams was a nice buy-low lottery ticket they acquired last year and while he can back up Rudy at SF, he’s more of a combo-power forward (too big to guard 3’s, too small to guard 4’s). He, Reggie Evans, Jason Thompson, and Carl Landry will make over $20 million combined (!) next year. Each brings different skill-sets to the position but none have proven to be starters yet in their NBA careers. $20 million combined.

Speaking of $20 million next year (I couldn’t help myself…), Rudy Gay is a big dude that is a shaky 3-point shooter and defender from the small forward position. He’s always reminded me of a homeless man’s Carmelo Anthony (or even Kobe Bryant), in that he’s a high-post isolation scorer, but with nowhere near the jumper or offensive polish. If it wasn’t for the 4-man PF platoon they’re committed to I’d look into quicker lineups with Boogie and Rudy in the frontcourt. Preventing that is the utter lack of skilled, 3-and-D wings on this roster, and which (finally) takes me to the Kings’s draft process.

Sacramento finished 30th in the league in assists per game this season and 26th in 3-point % (25th in attempts). As with any team featuring Rudy Gay, they don’t move the ball well or often. Their starting point guard is a restricted free agent who wants to return but could force them up against the luxury tax. Isaiah Thomas’s size will always be an issue, particularly on defense, and he’s had to grind ever since coming into the league as Mr. Irrelevant in the 2011 Draft. I was ready to make the argument that he’s maybe a combo guard and Sixth Man of the Year on a good team but he averaged 20.3 points, 6.3 assists, 2.9 rebounds, 1.3 steals with 45/35/85 triple slash percentages (15.2 FGA/5.1 3FGA/5.7 FTA) in 34.7 minutes per game. He can start, but he’d need help when he has to switch onto bigger guards. Ben McLemore can’t help him yet but he will get plenty of minutes as their shooting guard prospect and sneakily started 55 games. He’s a legit piece as the #7 pick last year but I would draft his starting replacement at #8 this year.

Marcus Smart is the best player available on our draft board and fills a serious need with these Kings. He doesn’t solve their shooting issues, traditionally (30% from 3 at OK State last year), but is a good passer with a high basketball IQ who could actually help their spacing by running the offense and kicking to shooters. The NBA 3-pointer will be a major adjustment for him but he could compensate in the meantime by picking up some of the old Jason Kidd skip passes on the perimeter.

I’m assuming Isaiah re-signs and starts at PG in 2015, and matches up a lot better with Smart than McLemore. McLemore might already be a better shooter than Smart (32% from the NBA 3!) and is a more-traditional 2-guard who can catch-and-shoot or create in the half-court. Starting alongside high-volume scorers like Isaiah, Rudy or Boogie, though, it’s uncertain how many shots McLemore could find with the starters and might be better suited developing with the second unit into his eventual-role as a scoring option.

I don’t think Marcus Smart is a starting NBA point guard but he, like Victor Oladipo in Orlando, could bring his point guard tendencies to the 2-guard position and thrive alongside a more offensive-minded point. He’s a classic “intangibles” guy that actually backs up a lot of the buzz words. He’s a tough, throwback, combo guard with a high basketball IQ who makes his teammates better. At worst he’s a solid role player right away who should be able to rebound and pressure the ball with his high motor and NBA-ready body. He’s gotten some Tyreke Evans comparisons and is maybe less explosive but smarter in the half-court, and should be able to use his strength against other guards in the post or in the paint.

Sacramento might even be in a position to value Smart’s particular set of intangibles. Even with the renewed optimism over the Renadive ownership and Rudy Gay trade last year, this is still a long rebuild in Sacramento, going on their eighth year without a playoff appearance, and a high-character, hard-worker like Smart could help this locker room and, particularly, Coach Malone. Known for his defensive acumen and attention to detail, it’s safe to say Malone didn’t have much defensive talent to work with last season.

The pre-draft talk out of Sacramento, as with LA and Boston before them, is that they prefer to move this pick for veteran talent that can propel them to the playoffs next season. It’s already been a long rebuild in Vivek’s short tenure but, as I addressed earlier, their cap situation is ugly until Rudy Gay makes a decision. Re-signing Isaiah seems a foregone conclusion, and rumors indicate Vivek wants Rudy to exercise his option and then work on a long-term extension after 2015 (!!). If I’m the GM, I give Rudy the ultimatum of the option pick-up (and you’re dead to us) or decline it (and sign for something like 4 years, $48 million). The $19 million option, plus Isaiah, puts the Kings around tax territory, which is unfathomable for a 28-win team.

With a weird cap situation that’s hung up on the Rudy Gay drama and Isaiah’s uncertain future, I’m not adding any veteran salaries unless it dramatically improves the team or the books. Marcus Smart should be able to step right in to an NBA locker room and conduct himself like a veteran, but on a cost-controlled rookie contract. He could peak as a role player and never be more than a third guard or he could step in and be a young Tony Allen (but before the knee surgeries, please). If there’s even a chance he can turn into a TA-type defender, the Kings are one step closer to the playoffs and to being a real basketball team.

What I Think They’ll Do:

They’re looking hard at a trade for a veteran but are out of range for the true impact talents (Love, Aldridge, maybe even Rondo). They’d have to use Jason Terry, Travis Outlaw or Reggie Evans’s expiring contracts to even out any trade, unless someone wants their headache contracts (Thompson, Landry) back, and it’s hard to find a trade that puts this roster into the playoffs.

The current rumor circulating is #8 for Brandon Knight, which I feel like Milwaukee jumps on all day. Smart at least has the unknown of whether he can play PG, with Knight we already have evidence, plus he’s up for big money in an extension next season.

I think Sacramento exhausts all options but ultimately can’t find a trade leading up to the draft. Marcus Smart is a relatively safe pro with a solid floor as a defensive role player, all qualities that are needed on this particular Kings roster. He starts early at the off-guard and becomes a fan and coach-favorite.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

I think Sacramento would do expirings and #8 for #20 and DeMar DeRozan, as he’s a young athlete with potential and California roots, but he might be too repetitive with Ben McLemore and we already saw the utter agony of a Gay/DeRozan half-court offense. It also depends on Toronto and if they’re ready to rebuild or are going for another playoff run next season.

So far, though, the biggest name linked to #8 has been Brandon Knight and that’s kind of sad. The Kings could’ve jumped in my Orlando trade and gotten Arron Afflalo and #12 for #8 and expirings, but Orlando needs a PF and Vonleh’s availability is key.