#16 - Chicago Bulls

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What I’d Do:

Elfrid Payton – LA Lafayette

6’4” (6’8” wingspan), 185 lbs., 02/22/1994 (20 years old)

Elfrid Payton is probably too good to still be on the board here at #16. At first I took him based on his value alone as the best player available for the Chicago Bulls but the more I think about it, the more this pick makes some sense beyond the value-aspect for the Bulls.


The Bulls front office, namely President John Paxson and general manager Gar Forman, probably have bigger moves to make this offseason than selecting the #16 and #19 picks in this draft. Fresh off another 48-win season, the team again rallied behind their “gritty” and “scrappy” narratives in overcoming another Derrick Rose injury and a Luol Deng trade in January to make the playoffs and take home court advantage as the #4 seed in the East. Joakim Noah stepped up in the second half of the season (more #narrative), leading the team in total assists and playing 80 games (!) on his way to winning the Defensive Player of the Year Award for the 2nd ranked defense.

Jimmy Butler led the team in minutes per game (38.7, tied for first in the league with Carmelo Anthony) but didn’t substantially improve in Rose’s absence. He was still a plus-defender, posting a 100 Defensive Rating, and trailed only Noah on the team in Defensive Win Shares (by a full two wins). The improvement was expected more on the offensive end, and while he improved his per game numbers to 13.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.9 steals, and 1.5 turnovers, he sacrificed his efficiency, shooting 45.7% on 2’s and 28.3% from 3 (39.7% overall, down 7% from the previous season). He did increase his FTA to 3.9 per game, which is good for a young player but could definitely increase given the amount of minutes he’s on the court. He’ll be up for an extension after next season and it’ll be interesting to see what he gets offered.

Noah, Butler, and Taj Gibson can be penciled in as starters next season, with Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy, and Tony Snell rounding out the rotation and Derrick Rose possibly ready by the start of the 2014-15 season. The Bulls will have about $62 million committed to seven players going into this summer, and can make that around $46 million with an amnesty of Carlos Boozer. The cap is assumed to come in at $63 million next year, which would potentially give Chicago about $17 million in cap space after waiving Boozer.

Any potential action by the Bulls this offseason pretty much has to begin with a Boozer amnesty or trade to free up the necessary cap space to make a run at Carmelo Anthony in free agency.

The notoriously thrifty Jerry Krause might not like the idea of paying a player to play elsewhere next season but it might take one of these first round picks to persuade a team to rent out their cap space. That could be a route worth investigating, at least with the #19 pick, if Chicago can trade Booze’s $16.8 million to a team with space (Orlando, Charlotte, Utah?) and pursue a major move, considering the unreliable injury history of Derrick Rose.

It’s been two full years since Derrick Rose last played in a meaningful NBA game. The Chicago-born Rose suffered the freak ACL tear in his left knee during the first game of the 2012 playoffs and missed the subsequent season. The Bulls took the patient approach, holding him out of the regular season and playoff run in 2013, and prepared him for a healthy 2013-14 run to challenge Miami in the Eastern Conference.

Rose played in 10 games at the beginning of the season and largely struggled in adjusting to his return from injury. His numbers were down to 15.9 points, 4.3 assists, 3.2 rebounds, and 3.4 turnovers per game in 31.1 minutes, shooting 35% from the field and 34% from 3 (4.7 attempts) but only 3.2 FTA’s per game. His Usage was above 30% and he posted a well-below average 9.7 PER in his 10 games, and visibly looked hampered in returning from his ACL tear. Despite Rose’s struggles the team won five in a row in those first 11 games but in a game in Portland, Rose tore the meniscus in his right knee and would miss the rest of the season again with injury.

The Bulls are saying publicly that Derrick is ready to go if the season started today but think they would even admit they need to enter this offseason as if he won’t be able to contribute. Not to be a pessimist but after the last two seasons it’s probably not safe to rely on Rose playing a full 82 games and posting another MVP-caliber season. Paxson and Forman, maybe more than in any other offseason, need to upgrade the teams’ offense through free agency or the draft and take pressure off of Rose.

Carmelo Anthony has to consider the Bulls on his short list of teams in free agency. If he were to leave the New York Knicks, he could find shots and stability (and success!) in Chicago under head coach Tom Thibodeau. Carmelo would have to adjust to the defensive accountability and screaming from Coach Thibs, and more heavy-minute workloads, but would add more rebounding and some actual perimeter scoring to the roster. He could play especially well with Joakim Noah, by spotting-up off of Noah’s penetration and passing abilities, and is used to bailing out bad offenses in the half-court.

Kevin Love is a natural fit with almost any team, as a top ten player entering his prime. He’d add serious scoring options to the Bulls and give Rose more driving lanes as a true spacing threat from the PF position. Chicago would have to move either Boozer or Taj Gibson in the deal, though, because of cap purposes and because of the abundance of power forwards currently on the roster. Butler could be included in the deal or a variation of picks (these two firsts) or future assets (the rights to forward Nikola Mirotic). An offer of Taj/Mirotic and some combination of the picks and/or Butler might be one of the best offers Minnesota could get, balancing future assets and current NBA talent.

Love is the younger player and would take talent to acquire him in a trade, whereas Carmelo is a free agent that would only cost cap space. Love offers the more long-term security, assuming he’ll re-sign with Chicago, but Carmelo’s position-fit is also appealing and might be the better option to a team that thinks they’re in “win-now” mode. Adding Carmelo’s scoring skills to the defensive framework of this Chicago team addresses their biggest need and allows Derrick Rose to work his way back from his injury as a secondary scoring option. The Eastern Conference could be wide-open in 2014-15 and a Bulls starting lineup of Rose/Butler/’Melo/Gibson/Noah is as strong as any in the conference or league.

These first round picks may seem inconsequential when we’re talking about amnestying Booze and making a FA run at ‘Melo but Thibs isn’t afraid to play rookies who can contribute on defense and Chicago could potentially add two rotation players at #16 and #19 to play off the bench. I know I’ve been preaching to “assume the worst” when planning the Bulls’s offseason but even if Rose is healthy and contributing again, a point guard still makes sense at #16. The bench basically consists of Dunleavy, Snell, and maybe Boozer and could use a point guard to settle the second unit and spell Rose as the starter on back-to-backs.

Elfrid Payton has been on a crazy rise throughout the draft process, rising mostly through his intensity and competitiveness in workouts. He didn’t make one of Chad Ford’s Mock Drafts until Version 4.0 in late-April, starting at #23 and peaking at #8 in Ford’s latest 8.1 Version. A 20-year old junior at LA Lafayette in the Sun Belt Conference, Payton is an old school, pass-first point guard who averaged 19.3 points, 5.8 assists, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 steals, and 3.8 turnovers per game this season on 50% from the floor and 25.9% from 3 (1.7 attempts).

He prides himself on his focus on defense and has the physical tools (6’4”, 6’8” wingspan, 8’2.5” standing reach) to be a plus-defender who loves to pressure the ball and the passing lanes. He excels at forcing turnovers that lead to transition opportunities, ranking 3rd among PG’s in Usage Rate (20.9 possessions per game) and 1st in transition possessions (5.1). Payton has an excellent handle and can get by his man without using the high screen and is strong enough to get into the paint. He’s almost unselfish to a fault when breaking down defenses and setting up teammates, and his size and court vision could almost overcompensate for his definite lack of a jump shot.

Along with his ugly 25.9% from 3 this season, Elfrid shot 59% on 8.8 (!!) free throw attempts per game. His jumper needs work, as he’s fully acknowledged, but it’s not broken. He’s got a Swaggy P-esque shot motion, keeping his elbows-in and releasing the ball in front of his face at forehead-level. I haven’t seen any of his games this season and am going off strictly DraftExpress videos but I could see his off-elbow flying out on him, giving more credence to the Rajon Rondo comparisons.

Besides the jumper, there are some concerns that he doesn’t use his strength enough in the paint, especially given the lack of talent he played against in a smaller conference, settling for floaters in that in-between area I talked about with James Young. He also needs to develop his left hand when he gets to the rim but the “not fearless in the paint” criticisms strike me as odd considering he drew almost nine FT’s a game. He also turned the ball over a bunch and was prone to lazy passes that gave some easy points back. Almost like great shooters and bad shot selection, though, I consider lazy passing a sometimes by-product of the hubris of great passers (they take more chances, throw more passes, etc.).

We talk often in the sports landscape about mental toughness and overcoming adversity, and some have no problems with questioning the toughness of great athletes while sitting on their couches or computer chairs. I find using those intangible qualities to be difficult in evaluating talent, as we usually don’t see these players working out or putting in the time behind the scenes to get better. However, I can think of no better evaluator of “mental toughness” than the draft and combine process (in any sport). Flying into cities and going right into personal interviews, complete with thorough background checks into you, your friends, and your family, and individual or group workouts seems like a stressful and highly-pressurized situation, where a bad shooting performance or shaky medical report could cost you millions. Not every prospect has an agent with the leverage to control workouts and battle against chairs, but Elfrid Payton has gone into every individual and group workout and thrived.

For a player from a smaller school that faced only seven teams in the top-100 in college basketball this season, Payton’s impressive performances against his peers (Tyler Ennis, Marcus Smart) in the workout process bodes well for his draft stock on Thursday. The NBA officially invited him to the green room at the draft, a seat usually reserved for lottery picks (give-or-take the occasional Rashard Lewis freefall). We might even have Elfrid too low in our Mock but he fits into a Chicago Bulls roster, with or without Derrick Rose or Carmelo Anthony.

If we’re going to keep armchair-psychoanalyzing whether players are tough or not, I’d like to think “playing for Coach Thibs” would be on the checklist. Payton would be a perfect fit in Thibodeau’s defense with his defensive acumen and leadership abilities. Watching the game videos on Payton compared to James Young is striking on defense, as both gamble heavily off-the-ball but Payton has the big, magnet hands that seem to attract bad passes and swallow-up sloppy dribbles. Considering the last young point guard the Bulls drafted to back-up Rose was Marquis Teague at #29 in 2012 (no longer with Chicago), I think Elfrid and Thibs will get along fine.

What I Think They’ll Do:

The Bulls might not consider point guard a position of need going forward and will have the inside information on Derrick Rose’s recovery or a potential reunion with Kirk Hinrich in free agency. Rodney Hood could be an option here as a knock-down shooter from the wing spot, which is a position of need on the roster after the Luol Deng trade. T.J. Warren will score buckets right away, despite not being a great shooter, and could score off the bench as a rookie at either forward position. Or they could fortify their already-strong front-court and take Jusuf Nurkic, giving (a hopefully healthy) Rose a roll-man off the P-n-R.

While the Kevin Love drama continues, with new suitors and front-runners and twists every day, the rumor sections have Chicago focusing their efforts on a Carmelo pursuit. I agree with that route, as it’ll be quicker and less-drawn out than dealing with Minnesota, and you can add a top SF to your team without sacrificing any other talent (outside of the Boozer amnesty/trade).

I’m not sure Elfrid Payton will be available at #16 for the Chicago Bulls, as he could be a sure-lottery pick by this point in the pre-draft process, but if he is then I think they draft him without question. He could develop into a defensive and pass-first point guard that might even be able to play with Rose in some lineups (dreaming on small Payton/Rose/Butler/’Melo/Noah lineups). Even if he has to develop on the bench at first, he’ll at least get good looks for Dunleavy and Snell.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

Like I touched on earlier, to a team with potential championship aspirations that’s focused on making a run at Carmelo, two draft picks in the mid-to-late teens doesn’t really move the needle too much, and could be seen as unnecessary salary slots that could eat into whatever cap space they can manufacture. A trade of one of these two picks for a future first is an option, as is a stash-pick on a foreign player that won’t count against the cap until they come to the United States.

Rumors circulated over the weekend about interest in Arron Afflalo for the #16 or #19 but Chicago would have to match salary back, being over the salary cap. He seems repetitive with Jimmy Butler, though, with a similar skill-set from the same wing position. The Afflalo interest, coupled with the rumored ‘Melo pursuit, seems to indicate the Bulls are indeed looking to upgrade the team this offseason and see themselves in “win-now” mode.