In Ainge We Trust, ... right?
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| via DGA Productions on Flickr |
What I'd Do:
Jusuf Nurkic
7'0” (7’2” wingspan), 280 lbs, 8/23/1994 (20 years old)
Nurkic put up insane per 40 numbers (like 28 points, 14 rebounds, 2 steals, 3 blocks) in the Adriatic League (a burgeoning league as far as talent) and fared almost as well in better competition in his 15 Eurocup games. At 19, 7’0, 280 lbs, with touch (related: over 70% from the FT) and a 44 PER, he sounds amazing right? Until you realize that he also averaged 9.0 fouls per 40 and played only 15-16 minutes per game because he couldn’t stay on the floor. Nurkic is a great unknown even for an international prospect.
He has the size and mobility of Marc Gasol. He does a great job making himself a target in the paint both on post ups and in the pick and roll (insane 160 points per 100 possessions in the pick and roll). He has touch and can finish. He’ll probably never be the passer Marc Gasol is, but he may end up being a better scorer in the long run. He already has great touch, gets to the free throw line consistently, and his FT% indicates he may develop a jumper out to 15-17 feet. All amazing, but his basement and ceiling will be determined by the defensive side of the ball.
He shows flashes of both defensive dominance with over 3 blocks per 40, and ineptitude by fouling once every 5 minutes of gametime. He is simultaneously over-aggressive and slow in rotations. The good thing is, he is perfectly mobile enough to make crisp rotations and long and large enough to be a defensive force. At 19, he’s only played organized basketball since 2009. He’s a bit like the mirror image of Embiid really. You know he’ll get you baskets on day one as a 19 year old prospect which is almost unheard of at his postition. On the other hand, he must develop defensively and limit fouls in order to ever earn enough minutes to make an impact or further develop.
The upside is we’ve seen plenty of big men who can’t stop fouling learn to curb their aggression enough to become defensive stalwarts. Kendrick Perkins is one of them. As a young player, he could barely stay on the floor. From the KG trade to the Jeff Green trade he had as big a defensive impact as Kevin Garnett did for Boston. Of course, Perkins had the best possible situation around him for development. Much of Nurkic’s development will depend on his situation as well and that’s where things get hairy.
If Nurkic were available to come over right a way it would still be a question mark whether he’d find the right ‘fit’ for his development. As a Celtics fan, I’d like to think that Ainge and Brad Stevens would provide that for him. The truth is though, Stevens has yet to prove that, and early returns as far as player development for guys like Bradley, Sullinger, and Olynyk haven’t confirmed anything. To be fair, Stevens deserves at least another season.
The problem with Nurkic is that he may spend the next two seasons playing almost anywhere. His contract status has already been something of a clusterfuck in the Adriatic League and really, nobody knows where this kid will be playing (and hopefully developing at age 20 and 21) for the next two seasons. As someone with a vested interest in him with his draft rights, that’s a bit scary and may be part of the reason (along with his inability to not foul) he is falling this far in the draft. Because beyond that, let’s be honest, he’s the second best Center in this draft and the first has an injured back and foot.
What I Think They’ll Do:
I have a sneaking suspicion the Celtics are going to draft T.J. Warren if they keep this pick and I actually don’t mind this. Warren strikes me as a can’t miss bench scorer with defensive upside that could elevate him to border-line All-Star potential. He won ACC Player of the Year over Jabari. He is the classic case (like A. Payne) of being undervalued because he’s not 19 and full of upside. I’d love this only because he’d be a joy to watch play on another bad version of the Celtics next season. The biggest concern besides his defense is his range. He’s more of a mid-range and in ‘scorer’ than an outside shooter. That doesn’t bother me though. He’s the type of player that can get 15-20 without having to run a play for him and I think teams are sleeping on his upside.
Crazy Draft Day Trade:
C’s get: Tyson Chandler
Knicks get: The # 17 pick
Keith Bogans unguaranteed contract (i.e. $5 million dollar cap relief)
Kelly Olynyk
Gerald Wallace’s now 2 year/$21 million dollar contract.
I know Knick were with me until about the third line of that offer, but hear me out Knicks fans (if there are any of you left out there). You get a first round pick in a decent range. Bogans offers some cap relief, even if you are taking on an extra year with Wallace compared to Chandler. Olynyk, while not exactly a building block, could eventually develop into what you thought you were getting from Bargniani. Wait, I think I’m losing them.
I’m not sure if either team would consider this, but imagine Embiid sitting for a year and learning from Tyson Chandler? Sullinger’s value is immediately raised when paired with Chandler and we’d get Rondo to Chandler alley-oops for days. Even Jeff Green would stand to benefit from this. Plus, the C’s would incomprehensibly find a way to shed Gerald Wallace’s contract. Ainge, just make sure you go to Dolan and not Phil with this offer. The Knicks tradition of ‘all bad contracts must go here to die’ continues! Win win.
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