# 15 - Atlanta Hawks

Zach Lavine's vertical in pre-draft workout via @Lakers twitter feed

What I’d Do:

Zach Lavine

6’6” (6’8” wingspan), 181 lbs, 3/10/1995 (19 years old)

Sure, the Hawks were the worst 8 seed we’ve had in a while, but let’s not blame the Hawks, let’s put it on the rest of the East.  How about we blame the Knicks, Pistons, and Cavs for not being competent enough to catch the Hawks for that 8 seed.  Overall, the Hawks had a fairly successful season.  Without Horford for much of the year, Mike Budenholzer came in and installed his Spursian offense valuing passing (1st in the league in Assist %) and shooting (9th in TS% where the top 12 are all playoff teams).  

For the Hawks, so much has to do with what they do with Horford.  I’m not buying that he’s being shopped though.  They’d probably make a deal if someone presented them with something great, but I don’t think they’re making calls at this point.  I feel like they’re content with their talent and hoping from some internal growth.  They will have a little bit of cap space this summer, or they can roll it over and will have enough for a max guy next summer.  I’m not sure Atlanta is luring any huge names though.  At the very least it gives them flexibility to build out the current roster. 

Between being able to move the Joe Johnson contract, hiring Budenholzer, and the cost-efficient Millsap contract, Danny Ferry is on fire right now.  The one criticism you could make is that they were too good in a lost year without Horford.  Instead of a lottery pick they came away at # 15, but the chances of them moving up into the high lottery were unlikely and there isn’t much difference between pick 12 and 15.  The experience the team got and support after playing well in that one playoff series was well worth it.  Not to mention the playoff revenue for a team that sometimes struggles selling tickets.

Atlanta has a history of drafting foreign players lately (Schroder and Nogueira) and many mock drafts have them stashing a guy like Nurkic.  I don’t see it that way.  They just drafted a seven-footer in Nogueira last season and he may end up in a Hawks jersey as soon as this year.  I don’t see them repeating that.  The Hawks will always value shooting (they’d probably love if McDermott fell to them here), but I’d like to see them bring in some athleticism.

Zach Lavine is the Noah Vonleh of the mid-late first round.  He’s one of the youngest guys in the draft and his length and athleticism make him the ideal prospect.  He was a freshman on a UCLA team that was dominated by two sophomores that could go in the first round of this draft (Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson).  He’s shown glimpses of being a 6’6” point guard who can shoot with the athleticism of Gerald Green.  That’s tantalizing, especially at # 15.  

Lavine is certainly a project.  He has passing skills, but doesn’t have a great shot selection.  He needs to bulk up to help both his defense and his slashing ability. He gets pushed around going to the basket, when trying to rebound, and when defending.  Get him in the open court though and he is terrifying.  He’ll go by your whole team and dunk on you or kick it to the corner for an open 3.  He shot 37.5% from 3 with terrible shot selection.  The upside is there, and I’d pull the trigger if I were the Hawks.

What I Think They’ll Do:

I mentioned that I don’t think the Hawks select a foreign player to stash. If I’m being honest, I don’t really think they take Lavine either, although I think they should.  I think the Hawks are too concerned with shooting, and although Lavine has the potential to be a good shooter, his decision-making and shot selection leave a lot to be desired.  The Hawks are looking for smart players that can pass and shoot.  I think Rodney Hood is a good bet there, or James Young actually, and again, if McDermott lasts to them, they’ll take him and that might actually be a great fit for his development.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

I would love to see the Hawks get aggressive here, but it would involve them either trading Millsap or Horford.  I don’t think they are realistically considering dealing Horford and sending Millsap to a team like Boston, Sacramento, or the Lakers would probably diminish his value.  They have a pretty good cap situation over the next few years, it’d be a shame to compromise that just to trade up to pick 7 or 8.  

What if they try to use their pick to get an established guy instead?  Would Orlando say no the # 15 pick and the rights to Lucas Noguiera for Afflalo?  Afflalo is the type of player that would fit almost anywhere, but his shooting and perimeter defense would be so valuable to the Hawks.  Orlando might be able to pair Noguiera with Vucevic to protect the basket and would have three picks in the first #15.  This might not be the best offer Orlando gets, so that would be the downfall.  Embiid would definitely not be able to fall below 3 and Orlando would need to be really interested in Noguiera.