The Give and Go: 2014 Early Extensions

The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.

Chris:  A record 9 rookies (1st rounders) from the 2011-12 draft agreed to early contract extensions before the October 31st deadline, compared to 6 last season.  Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler were among those that did not come to agreements and expect to become restricted free agents similar to Greg Monroe (qualifying offer), Eric Bledsoe (5 years, $70 M), Gordon Hayward (4 years, $55 M), and Avery Bradley (4 years, $32 M) were this past offseason.  Obviously, the new television deal had some kind of impact on this.  What surprised you about the deals that were made and those that weren’t?

Paul: 

I think the disparity in the number of extensions from this season compared to the Draft Class of 2010 can mostly be attributed to the TV money and the acceptance of the economic boom that comes with it, but also to a bit of a talent gap between the two drafts. There were actually debates at the time as to the size of the extensions given to John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Derrick Favors, but their deals were all dwarfed a year later by the contracts signed by Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, and Nikola Vucevic, among others. A look at the players selected in the 20’s, for example, shows the quality differential; with eight players by my count no longer playing basketball at the NBA level from the 2010 Draft, and only MarShon Brooks, JaJuan Johnson, and Nolan Smith out of the league from the Class of 2011.

I was a bit surprised that Kawhi Leonard and Brandon Knight weren’t re-signed by this years’ deadline. The Spurs and Bucks will still have all of their restricted free agency rights and be able to match any offer sheets that Leonard or Knight sign next summer, unless either player takes the Greg Monroe approach and signs the one-year qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent in 2016. Golden State initially seemed committed to following the same plan with Klay Thompson, and wait to match a max-offer rather than risk “overpaying” on an extension, but ownership realized that there might not be an overpay with the new TV deal, and the public relations and political fallout were worth setting their market early.

There were a couple of intriguing names that also didn’t receive extensions, besides Kawhi and Knight, but I’m curious who you would target in restricted free agency of 2015, knowing that you would probably have to spend significantly to dissuade a team from matching that offer sheet, if at all, ala Chandler Parsons or Gordon Hayward. Let’s say you’re the GM of Orlando, or Boston, or the Lakers, or another rebuilding team coming upon cap space; which of these players hitting restricted free agency would you invest in?

Chris:

The obvious answer is Kawhi.  Because of his agent situation, he’s basically forced to seek a max deal and I do think the Spurs are a little hesitant to give out a max contract to anyone they don’t foresee as a franchise cornerstone.  I think Kawhi has the potential to be that, and he’s obviously stepped up in big moments, but there’s a difference between having a great series or two (even if it is the Finals) and being the best player on a sixty-win team over the course of 10+ seasons.  The Spurs may have way too large expectations, but it’s hard to fault them for that.  

Even if he’s not a franchise guy, Kawhi is certainly the prize jewel of the restricted free agents this season after so many extensions were handed out before the deadline for this class.  If I’m the Celtics or Orlando, and I sign Kawhi, is he good enough to lift up a bad team like that?  I like it better for the Celtics (swap Kawhi for Jeff Green) especially if they are bad enough to draft a highly talented center in the draft than for Orlando who is searching for an alpha-dog that Kawhi may never be.  That is all probably moot because even though the Spurs may have their reservations, they’ll still probably match any offer thrown Kawhi’s way this off-season.  

Outside of that, Reggie Jackson and Jimmy Butler are intriguing pieces, but I wouldn’t want to throw money at them.  The inordinate number of early agreements this season will make the restricted free agent class a bit bare.  Guys like Shumpert, Tobias Harris, and Norris Cole have upside that could be realized.  If you can bring them in at a discounted number, that’s interesting, but there’s a reason they didn’t get extensions.  

Ultimately, that’s what every team wants out of their first round pick, right?  When that player comes up for an extension following his rookie contract, you want it to be a no-brainer that the team will extend them.  Considering that nine players got extensions from the 2011 draft class and not all of them are no-brainers, that just goes to show you how difficult talent evaluation is in this league. It’s tough to draft a franchise player and when you do, you want to have that identified early.  Letting a player get to restricted free agency can ultimately cost you.  For the Spurs, that might not have mattered since Kawhi may be worth a max deal anyway.  For OKC, you may lose Reggie Jackson when someone maxes him instead of you locking him up for a Kemba/Rubio-type deal.