Tuesday, October 21, 2014

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Los Angeles Clippers


Credit:  Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images


Although the majority of it has been unpleasant, the Clippers have quite a lot of history. After the events of this past season though, it's history they're trying to avoid.  There’s no use re-hashing that experience though.  The Clippers are ready to move forward, to transition, and they might have the perfect person to lead them through it: Doc Rivers. Doc was a stabilizing influence throughout the organization in the transition after the Sterling debacle.  That's half the reason why Doc Rivers is my Coach of the Year this season. The other half?  Well, this Clippers team is going to be really good.



At first glance, it may not seem that the Clippers improved all that much going from Vinny Del Negro to Doc.  They only won 1 more game (improving from 56 to 57), and in both seasons were in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive Rating.  Anyone who spent any time watching the two iterations of this team, though, would disagree.  Doc led the Clippers to become the best offense in the league last season (by Offensive Rating), and although the defense ‘slipped’ from 8th to 9th, individual pieces began to shine under Doc. DeAndre is the most obvious example.  Blake continued to improve the jump shot, improve defensively within the team's scheme,  and when Chris Paul went out for just over a month, he showed the the overall skill set that led League Pass veterans to fawn over him during his rookie season.

I was hard on Doc in the playoffs last year. He seem to lose his composure at the end of that Oklahoma City series.  Look at around the 3:00 minute mark in the video below.  Doc’s team is UP 2 with 11 seconds left and he chose to spend his timeout stomping around like a four year old having a temper tantrum.  I thought he got off easy for that.  I feel like his team fed off of that frantic energy.   That led to a Chris Paul foul on a terrible Westbrook 3-Point attempt and the Paul turnover as time expired (although Ibaka’s length helped). But when you take in the context of what the team was going through at the worst time they possibly could be, you could understand how composure could have been lost.



The weight of Donald Sterling has been removed from this franchise. In Blake Griffin’s own words, the vibe amongst employees at all levels are much better coming into the season.  That will count for something, but it will also clear up Doc to focus on the role that should be his number one priority: Coaching.

My opinion? Chris Paul got unfair criticism for the way Game 5 ended last year.  I feel as though that criticism has followed Chris into this season as well. People are choosing Chris Paul to be the man with the most to prove this year. He's been called out multiple times for his absence in any Western Conference finals in his career.  Maybe that's fair, but the West has been loaded during his career.  I also believe that Chris Paul is Chris Paul.  There are some limitations there (like 65 games or so) but that's not necessarily bad thing.  Roughly 19 points, 10 assists, 2.5 steals and some slightly above average but fairly clutch shooting numbers.  Paul has somehow managed to score between 1185 and 1189 total points in each of the last three seasons.  Again, you know what you're getting with him.  But if you're curious what one player on this team is going to determine how good the Clippers can be, or how far they will advance, then look no further than Blake Griffin.  

Blake had a career year last season. The shooting numbers from mid-range were a bit overblown (under 40%) but the eye test tells you he is continuing to improve.  There's talk of Blake extending that range to 3-point range.  Those benefits won’t be had this season, but an expected improvement in shooting percentage from the mid-range will be.  He's always been an insanely gifted ball handler and passer but with Chris Paul running the show there has been limited opportunities to show it the last two seasons.  Maybe there is cause for concern that with Chris Paul back in the lineup those opportunities will continue to be limited for Blake. I tend to think Doc will figure it out.  Blake received some love in the MVP conversation last year and could be a legitimate candidate this season.  If so, that's what will get the clippers to 60 wins. That's what will get the Clippers to the Western Conference Finals and maybe beyond, not Chris Paul.

It wasn't just Griffin that made great strides last season under Doc. DeAndre Jordan had been full of potential since he entered the league. His body type and athleticism led you to believe that he would develop into a havoc-wreaking monster on the defensive end. He struggled with defensive schemes under lesser coaches (ahem... Vinny Del Negro) and he fouled often. Under Doc, he cut down the fouls (from almost 5 per 36 minutes to just over 3), averaged a career high in blocks per game (2.5), and his rebounds skyrocketed from a previous career high of 8.3 per game to 13.6 per game (!!) to lead the NBA.  Maybe more importantly DeAndre began to develop the ability to anchor the defensive scheme. There is still room for improvement there, and that's a good thing for the Clippers. If things go perfectly for them, DeAndre is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate leading a top 5 defense by years end.

The Clippers were in the top five in offensive efficiency last year, in fact, they were number 1.  Even at that, they had stretches where they looked even better. And yet, the one thing that they could not do well consistently, was shoot from the outside.  They were in the bottom ten in the league as far as 3-point shooting percentage.  They started the season thinking Jared Dudley and Matt Barnes filled their hole at the wing, but when Dudley got off to a terrible shooting start they resorted to quite the crew: Danny Granger, Hedo Turkoglu, Steven Jackson.. Yikes.  The Clippers smartly paid Milwaukee to take Jared Dudley in some cap maneuvering that Zach Lowe can explain better to you than I can that allowed them to sign Chris Douglas-Roberts, Joe Ingles, and Ekpe Udoh, none of which wow you, but all of which should provide some needed depth.  


They also brought in JJ Redick last season, seemingly the perfect candidate to address the outside shooting issue. Redick struggled with injuries, including a bulging disc, and just never got right.   But I agree with Thomas Wood of Clips Nation, “If the Clippers were a car, Blake would be the engine, Chris Paul the transmission, DeAndre the chasis, and JJ Redick the turbocharger.”  A healthy Redick this season could take the Clippers offense from best in the league to just flat out impossible to slow down.  Redick made only 73 3-point FGs last season.  He made 163 the year before in Orlando and Milwaukee.  Redick shot slightly better last season, but 163 three’s at a 37% clip is more valuable than 73 at a 40% clip.  For some reason he seemed to take more mid-range shots in Doc's system.  Either way, a healthy Redick this season will be as good of an addition as any contender in the West got this off-season.

Redick can’t guard the most dangerous offensive wings though, so who can step up on this Clippers roster to fill that starting small forward position and provide them with either consistent outside shooting or solid defense, or both?  That’s by far the biggest question the Clippers have entering this season.  Matt Barnes is keeping the seat warm for anyone who wants to step up.  Clippers hope is that Reggie Bullock is the guy that steps up. 

Bullock is a fairly under the radar young player, the 25th overall pick in the 2013 Draft that the Clippers did give some limited minutes last season.  Bullock is a solid defender already and projects to be a 3 and D guy (he shot 43% from 3 in college, although he only shot 30% on just over 70 attempts from 3 in his rookie year).  If Bullock can shoot league average from the outside, that would be a huge boost for the Clippers to solidify that role.  Chris Douglas-Roberts may be the most experienced option other than Barnes, and the Clippers drafted another projected 3 and D wing in C.J. Wilcox in the 2014 Draft.

The Clippers certainly aren't too concerned about bench scoring. Perennial Sixth Man of the Year contender, Jamaal Crawford has been playing his best basketball in the last two seasons. He buys into his role, comes in to the game to score, and is lethal at what he does.  It would be a shame if the Clippers need to include him in any trade to address that starting small forward position. Clippers also brought in Spencer Hawes to provide front court depth and outside shooting. Hawes should be able to play with both Blake and DeAndre in theory (although Hawes and Blake defensively is pretty shaky) and should provide much needed spacing for certain lineups (Barnes and Jordan on the floor together).

The Clippers also replace Darren Collison with Jordan Farmar from the other team in Los Angeles. Farmer seemed to make great strides last season for the Lakers, after being out of the league the year before and you could be an upgrade over Collison as far as ball-handling and shooting. Farmer shot over 40% from 3, however, that was under the D’ Antoni system.  The Clippers also return Glen Davis for additional front court depth and continuity in Doc’s system.  As I mentioned, the Clippers are hoping Udoh and Ingles can provide depth in the rotation.

All-in-all, the Clippers are in good shape.  They won 57 games last season, with Chris Paul missing 20 of them; they have room for improvement. With two top 10 players, my pick for Coach of the Year, and an organization wide cleansing of the filth that was Donald Sterling, the Clippers are poised for a big year. Doc got his new contract.  He’s the man going forward.  The West is insanely tough, but the Clippers will be in the race for the coveted # 1 seed and home court throughout.  With their history behind them, the clippers are ready for a fresh start.

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