The Give and Go: The Dominant Narrative of the 2015-16 NBA Season

Credit: REUTERS/Bill Waugh

The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.

Chris: We’re back Mitchell!  After a long and tortuous NBA-less Offseason, we’ve arrived on the hopeful shores of NBA Media Day. NBATV is airing Real Training Camp on a daily basis and I’ve already been reminded just how terrible Preseason NBA basketball really is (but I’ll watch it anyway…).

If I may make a proclamation, in my opinion the dominant narrative of the 2014-15 NBA Season was the Golden State Warriors and their middle finger to the idea of traditional positions (particularly debunking the myths that stated jump shooting teams and teams without a traditional dominant center can’t win a Championship). There were other narratives to be sure, but I made a proclamation damnit!

What do you think will be the dominant narrative of the upcoming 2015-16 NBA Season?

Paul: /Googles “cash register chime”

Oh, you mean during the season? Well, outside of broadcasters mentioning Harrison Barnes’s looming, max-level contract during Warriors games, we probably won’t hear too much about the NBA’s salary cap explosion next summer while games are actually occurring, but you can bet that it will be the dominant narrative among players. Look for the healthiest season in recent NBA history in ‘15-16 as players report to camp in the best shape of their lives. (The latter’s a given; I’m hopeful on the former.)

I’ve made this point before while in the midst of my preseason euphoria, but I feel like more organizations care about competing than at any point in our 30-team era. Unlike in years past, we might be spared any national columns on the evils of the tanking epidemic -  save for Sam Hinkie’s 76ers - as the formerly rebuilding clubs are taking steps towards legitimacy. Which teams can you say will be truly hopeless, from our preseason vantage point?

Hinkie’s outright refusal to address free agency or the point guard position might be the most obvious bullet point in the anti-tank conversation, but Philadelphia still added another blue-chip big man to a team that routinely exceeds (albeit abysmal) expectations under head coach Brett Brown. Orlando’s been building lottery talent for years and finally got serious about improving by hiring the always-serious Scott Skiles, while up-and-coming teams like Boston and Utah might be a step further than we assumed last preseason. The Timberwolves were beset by injuries again last year but will be maybe the most talented 20-win team ever by adding Karl-Anthony Towns with the first overall pick. Even the Lakers and Knicks struck out famously in free agency and still recovered to sign some talented, defensive-oriented veterans to build an infrastructure, and should at least showcase competent squads this season.

The league’s reliance on shorter contract lengths and the increasing importance of free agency has already completely flipped the future of the Trail Blazers franchise in a single summer, with the departure of LaMarcus Aldridge sending them into a sudden rebuild. The presence of point guard Damian Lillard and head coach Terry Stotts (and, of course, Chris Kaman) will lend Portland some respectability, but the rest of the roster is comprised of young players on either their first or second contracts who are still fighting for a place in the league.

Beyond Portland, however, who will still play hard with some long-limbed lineup combinations, there aren’t any other basketball situations that are quite lacking in optimism this preseason. The Sacramento Kings are the most talented they’ve been in a decade, yet with a highly combustible mix of personalities and on-court talent that should blow up spectacularly, and the Denver Nuggets can go nowhere but up after the disaster that was Brian Shaw’s two-year reign as head coach. Despite residing in the Eastern Conference, where they’ve each been mediocre enough to snatch its last two eighth seeds, the Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets are a couple of injuries to their (All-Star caliber) centers away from completely bottoming out (again), yet also fringe playoff teams if things go well, health-wise.

Basically, the 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats won’t be walking through that door, fans. (And if they did they’d be old and grey still really bad at basketball.) At least not this season. We’ll still see bad teams and awful basketball for stretches of the season, just not on the level we may have been accustomed to in years past. Whether it’s the quicker economic turnarounds, or more available information, or simply the timetables on some of these rebuilds, but the amount of easy outs on the NBA schedule is steadily shrinking as the quality of basketball keeps improving. I hesitate to use the word “parity”, in discussing the dominant trend of 2015-16, but the NBA’s lower to middle classes are stronger than they’ve ever been, and we’re weeks away from watching some incredible basketball being played night in and night out.

Chris: You might be on the money with this one. I would argue that the NBA has more talent than at any other time as well which leads to better rebuilding plans as you mentioned. And on top of that, the league has never been more invested in keeping players healthy. If the Kobe/Duncan/Garnett/Pierce era was defined by Superstars who learned how to take care of their body to prolong their career (Ray Allen=the poster boy), this era may be defined by NBA teams doing everything they can to spread those ideas across their entire roster.

More and more teams will be resting Superstars a la the San Antonio Spurs and the league made adjustments to the schedule to reduce back to backs and four games in five nights, brutal stretches for players. The NBA even created a committee to figure out the best ways to keep their star players on the floor. So, I agree, we may be drinking the optimistic Kool-Aid, but I am expecting a healthier NBA overall compared to last season.

If I'm looking for an alternative theory, there is one narrative that jumps out to me, and although the rising cap impacts it, it’s more specific than that.  It’s Kevin Durant. With Durant, the question about what he will do this off-season is going to build momentum as we get farther and farther into the season.

We all know the NBA season is very long and prone to many ups and downs. For every downswing and hardship the OKC Thunder endure, the Durant rumor mill will pick up speed. Billy Donovan will be challenged to mold a much more versatile offense compared to past versions of these Thunder while maintaining a top tier defense despite players like Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters figuring to be prominent members of the rotation.

Durant signed with Jay-Z’s sports agency in June of 2013 and you're crazy if you don’t believe that Roc Nation isn’t going to use Kevin Durant’s upcoming free agency and mega-deal as their biggest marketing weapon. This has already started with Stephen A. Smith claiming Durant will sign with the Lakers and Durant having to debunk that immediately.

And on top of all of that, we haven’t seen Durant be able to play 50 games in a row after an unfortunate lost season that involved multiple surgeries to try to correct that foot. This narrative is mostly squashed if the Thunder keep Westbrook, Durant, and Ibaka healthy and are one of the top three teams in the NBA.

But even then there will be various ‘reports’ citing ‘sources’ as the season goes along claiming to ‘have intimate knowledge’ with Kevin’s decision-making process. He’ll likely get link to multiple teams before Christmas Day. And if, God forbid, the Thunder are truly struggling close to the trade deadline, and late into the season, the music will grow louder.

It’s simultaneously one of the most frustrating and interesting thing about the NBA. The next available Superstar in the NBA will always be coveted since Superstars are in short order around the league, and when you’re talking about a player of Kevin Durant’s talent, that is amplified. Add to that a financial landscape where literally every team will have the cap space to make a run at him, and my guess is this season will revolve around what Kevin Durant’s next move will be.