The Give and Go: Surprise Records

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The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.

Paul:  

Last week we discussed two teams with the best records in their conferences and their chances of finishing the season as their respective #1 seeds. It’s still early, but which teams’ records have surprised you as we enter the fourth week of the 2013-14 season?

Chris:

For me, it’s the the Los Angeles Clippers at 5-4. I picked the Thunder to win the title and the Clippers to have the best record in the West. Yea, I’m on a roll. I looked past the massive hole they have at the wing position and their lack of depth and envisioned Paul and Blake playing at their best supported by DeAndre and Redick and Doc and his veteran coaching staff pulling the right strings.

That just hasn’t been the case. Starting small forwards have killed the Clippers so far this season averaging 19.4 points, 7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, shooting 49% from the field and 44% from deep, and maintaining a 124 O-Rating and 107 D-Rating.  

The Clippers have tried almost everything already (and it’s only been nine games), including playing Hedo Turkoglu 25 minutes in the first four games, and starting Crawford and Redick together which kills both their starting unit (good luck guarding the wing with Redick and Crawford) and the bench unit (good luck scoring with Farmer, CDR, Bullock, Davis, Hawes).  Chris Douglas-Roberts partially tore his achilles, but prior to that, he was in the mix as well.  CDR, Barnes, and Bullock combine to average 4.5 points, 1.9 rebounds, 0.5 assists, shoot 34% from the field and 33% from 3, and have maintained a O-Rating of 103 and a D-Rating of 112. That’s basically been the best solution for the Clippers.

Bullock has shown flashes (he’s 6 of 9 from 3-point range), but hasn’t gotten the minutes yet. To me, that’s the move, because at least he has upside. The problem hasn’t only been the SF position though and that’s the problem.  Blake, DeAndre, and Redick have all been inconsistent and that leads to a 5-4 record. Blake’s rebounding has plummeted 7.3 per game (he averaged 12.1 as a rookie), Redick is shooting 30% from 3-point range, and DeAndre has struggled in the defensive scheme.  

Chris Paul has an insane 88 assists and only 13 turnovers and the Spurs have struggled a bit as well (although they took care of the Clippers), and they’ve played a brutal schedule (last 5: Warriors, Blazers, Spurs, Suns, Bulls), so there are reasons for optimism. And their schedule is easing up a bit.  They’ll need to figure some things out soon though.  What team’s record surprises you the most?

Paul:

The Clippers are a great pick even this early in the season, with just a 5-4 record but also with plenty of troubling signs from their personnel and effort. A Chris Paul and Blake Griffin-led offense probably won’t finish the season ranked in the ‘teens, but a bottom-ten defense is a cause for concern, given how poorly the DeAndre Jordan/Blake frontcourt have played on that end already. It’s still really early, and there are enough resources available to improve the situation going forward, but the Clippers have shown more signs of optimism and competence than the 4-7 Charlotte Hornets.

The Hornets, then-Bobcats, were a fun team to root for in 2013-14, if not necessarily to watch. Rookie head coach Steve Clifford instituted a paint-based defense that maximized the abilities of some lackluster defensive players and turned the offense over to offseason signing Al Jefferson, with some Kemba Walker playmaking as a second-option. This offseasons’ major free agency signing, guard Lance Stephenson, has struggled with his shot and in adjusting to his new role with the Hornets, shooting just 37.8% from the field and 25% from 3. He’s averaging 9.5 points per game and is turning the ball over more than last season, while handling the ball and getting to the free throw line at a lower rate. His 9.2 rebounds per game are a career-best and he’s passing the ball more than he did with the Pacers in ‘13-14, but needs to be more decisive in the halfcourt and as the third-option in what is currently the third-worst offense in the league.

Starting power forward Marvin Williams has provided the offense with some spacing but is averaging only 6.5 points in his 25 minutes per game, and has struggled with his shooting on the road, at 50% from the floor and 41.2% from 3 in home games but 41.2% and 31.8% in away games. A small forward earlier in his career with the Atlanta Hawks, Williams embraced his stretch-4 role with Utah last season as a catch-and-shoot player from the corners, but is unable to offer the same ball handling and passing abilities that McRoberts did for the team in 2013-14. The offense wasn’t exactly smooth last season either, with the 24th-ranked unit by offensive rating, but the Bobcats relied on McBob’s ball movement from the high post and ranked 8th in assist percentage last year, and 15th so far this season.

The additions of Lance and Marvin have yet to translate on offense. The Hornets’ two most-used lineups this season have featured Kemba/Lance/Marvin/Jefferson and either Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (for 92 total minutes) or Gerald Henderson (46 mins.) at the small forward position, and have scored at a rate of 90.5 points per 100 possessions with MKG and 83.6 points per 100 with Gerald. Lineups with Kidd-Gilchrist would rank 29th in the league in offense, while the Hendo lineup would make even Sam Hinkie blush. Substituting Cody Zeller and Gary Neal into that lineup, in place of Marvin Williams and sliding Lance to the SF, scores at a rate of just under 120 points per 100 possessions, in limited (34) minutes. The offense could take time to gel, after adding two starters in the offseason, but the importance of Gary Neal to the offense could reveal some spacing issues that Clifford or GM Rich Cho might need to address to get this offense out of the “76ers and Pacers” tier.

The hope for this team, and their slow start, is that Clifford will be able to again work his magic on the defensive end and have the Hornets playing as a top-ten defense come playoff time. Currently, they sit 19th in defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). Without some magic from Cho, the offense might not ever get out of the bottom third of the league but any success this team had last year hinged on its defensive abilities, and the Hornets simply aren’t able to score enough to compensate for a below average defense. After a 27-point home blowout loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Monday, I’m about another week away from being really worried about the Charlotte Hornets.