The Give and Go: Jimmy Butler: Star?

Credit:  Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images

The Give and Go is a quick back and forth between Paul Mitchell and Chris St. Jean about a relevant subject in the NBA at that moment.

Chris:  With Rose in and out of the lineup and some other key parts as well (Gibson, Gasol, Noah), the Bulls have hung in there at 9-6.  A lot has fallen on fourth year guard Jimmy Butler and he’s taken on the challenge averaging 21.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 3.2 assists (all career highs).  Tom Thibodeau recently called Butler ‘a star’.  Has Jimmy Butler grown into a star Mitchell?  

Paul:

Woah, did Thibs run that by upper management and ownership first? He does know that Jimmy Butler is going to hit (restricted) free agency next summer, right? I might take issues with the phrasing and semantics of the word “star”, but let me make my case and see how I feel in another paragraph or two…

There is no doubt that Jimmy Butler is a different player than he was last season for the Chicago Bulls. His scoring is up over 8 points (to 21.6 per game), his field goal percentage by 10 points (to an even 50% from the field), and he’s increased his numbers in every category over last year while taking on more responsibilities on offense (22.6% usage). Averaging 21.6 points per game (in 39.2 minutes), 6.1 rebounds, and 3.2 assists on 53.7/33.3/82.2 triple-slash percentages (2’s/3’s/FTs), Butler has also increased his free throw attempts per game (8.2) and shooting efficiency numbers (61.3% true shooting). He wasn’t a great catch and shoot player last season, despite 39% of his shots coming from spot-ups, shooting just 45.7% in effective field goal percentage, but this year he’s making 57.8% eFG of his catch and shoot attempts, which constitute 28.2% of his total shots. So far this season he’s taking more two-point field goal attempts (82% compared to 65.4% last season) but 48.6% of his shots are within 10 feet of the basket, which translates into his career-best 58.5% free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempts). Even with Derrick Rose in and out of the lineup, Jimmy Butler’s offense has been consistent, posting almost identical numbers whether at home or on the road, in wins or in losses.

Based solely off of those offensive numbers, I’m still reluctant to call him a “star”. Without getting into the full connotations and (hypothetical) definitions of the term, the star threshold should be exclusive territory, reserved for only the top 1 or 2% of NBA athletes. Back in the day (by that I mean the terrible, isolation-heavy basketball of the ‘90’s and 2000’s), being a star meant being able to create your own shot in the half-court set and carry a team's offense under heavy defensive scrutiny. Getting to the free throw line was of utmost importance in the days before heavy pick and roll and three-point-oriented offenses, while defensive competence was never a necessity. Today, with the advent of analytics and smarter coaching/management, three-point shooting and defense are more of a priority, but the old template of iso scorers still holds true.

Right now, I might say that Jimmy Butler is, like, 85% of the way to star status. He could increase his proficiency from the three-point line, from the 33.3% he’s shooting thus far in 2014-15, or increase his usage rate and become more of a go-to scorer in the half-court (in games without Derrick Rose, at least), but if he can continue averaging over 20 points per game over the course of a full season, from the two-guard spot and as a lock-down defender, then it would be tough to deny his value and classification as a star player.

What are your thoughts on the distinction? The argument before the season started was if Jimmy Butler was worth a max contract in the offseason. That’s insane at this point, right?

Chris:

Obviously, Thibodeau is using the term ‘star’ much different than we (fans) would interpret it. Thibs cares nothing for All-Star berths, marketing power, and personal branding.  In the Thibs context, Butler is a ‘star’ because he’s doing everything the coach/team/organization asks of him.  For Thibs that means anchoring the perimeter defense alongside guards that may not excel in that department (Brooks, Hinrich) and play 39.2 minutes per game.  For the team, he’s increased his offensive responsibility, increasing his Usage Rate from 16.8 to 22.6, while simultaneously increasing his assist percentage from 11.1 to 13.9 and decreasing his turnover percentage from 10.8 to 9.1.  For the organization, it’s not doing what Reggie Jackson has been doing.  Playing nice during the year even though it was obvious he deserved an extension heading into this season.

That leads me to your question.  At the start of this season if Butler received a Klay Thompson-like 4-year, $70 million deal it might have raised some eyebrows.  But why? Heading into the season we knew Butler as a far superior defender to Klay.  Klay is recognized because he’s a great shooter who is an above average defender.  Butler is a rare wing stopper.  A guy you can put on LeBron James for 40 minutes in a playoff game and feel good about it.  Offensively, Butler was viewed as a limited player who was asked to do more than he probably should have been, but development isn’t linear.  The experience of having more offensive responsibility last season may have given Butler a confidence boost this year.  Sure he's still a limited offensive player, but so is Klay in a different way.

If Butler was handed a Rubio-like 4-year $55 million extension heading into this season, I think that would have been a steal looking back now.  The Bulls probably cost themselves some money which makes this development...Butler’s development so interesting to watch this season.  What if Rose can’t stay healthy, Noah is dinged up all year as he has been in the past, and as you put it:

“if he can continue averaging over 20 points per game over the course of a full season, from the two-guard spot and as a lock-down defender, then it would be tough to deny his value and classification as a star player.”

In that scenario, or the one that has played out through 13 games this season, Butler becomes close to as valuable as Kawhi does this off-season, and there’s an outside chance neither is brought back with their current team.