2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Klay Thompson

Credit: Getty Images

Klay Thompson has had quite the summer.  The debate was was alive over the course of last season, but this off-season, Thompson may have become the most divisive player among NBA circles. Klay was involved in the trade rumors that were swirling with Kevin Love and when Golden State was so public about the fact that they would not include Klay in a possible deal, that poured gasoline on the fire.  A certain subset of Warriors fans, lets call them Klay loyalists, became Klay’s unofficial PR team, and other parts of the NBA discourse community were glad to debate with them.

This wasn't really Klay’s fault. Although, his agent had already started the campaign for Klay. The campaign was simple: Klay Thompson is a top-five (top 3? maybe even the best?) two-way shooting guard in the league.

With Kobe injured, Wade banged up, and Harden’s defensive liabilities being harked on, it seemed like there was a dearth in SG talent across the League and Thompson’s agent was taking advantage of that.  The major selling point for Klay Thompson loyalists and his agent is that he is a two-way player.  Guys who can shoot at the level Klay can and still defend their position are rarities in the NBA.

On the offense of side of the ball Klay Thompson is a spot up shooter. In fact, one of the better spot up shooters in the entire NBA. He led the league in total points off of catch and shoot situations.  He’s deadly in those situations, knocking down 44.2% from three point line (where the majority of those catch and shoot opportunities come from).

As good of a shooter as he is though, Klay is limited offensively in certain ways.  When Klay is forced to put the ball on the floor, his efficiency plummets.  He does have the reputation of having a post game, although it could be overrated at this point. Klay has the ability to attack smaller guards, but he doesn’t have a wide variety of post moves (admittedly, most guards don’t), and he's certainly not as skilled as someone like Joe Johnson in that area.

Klay is a lousy playmaker and passer and that's the big area where you'd like to see some improvement on the offensive end. Klay’s Assist % (percentage of the team’s assists that player creates) has stagnated at 10.1% the last two seasons.  He’s averaged 2.2 and 2.3 assists per game over those seasons (although he has cut down on his turnover numbers).  That’s not very good.  Klay is only 23, and entering his fourth season in the NBA, and as I spotlighted with DeRozan, players can improve their passing abilities at this point in their career.

Also, the fact that Klay plays in a starting unit where the other four players are all exceptional passes for their position, makes it a little easier to swallow. He may be the only player in the starting lineup that is not truly gifted in this area.  For his role on this team, he’s asked to finish possessions, not create for others.

It's his fit within the starting lineup defensively though, that probably was the main reason why Golden State was so insistent on holding onto him. Steph Curry is a defense of liability. Simple. Given that the point guard position is so talented league wide, the ability to guard point guards well is truly invaluable to this particular roster construction.  It's been Klay's defense of Chris Paul that has had the most visibility here:

Also, because that's what Klay has been asked to do with this team, his defensive abilities may have been overstated slightly. Klay isn’t asked to guard larger wings in the way that DeRozan was last season. DeRozan was asked to guard Joe Johnson in that playoff series.  That would have been a difficult task for Klay to take on.  Luckily he plays alongside Iguodala, who has the size to match up well with larger wings. They also have Harrison Barnes coming off the bench to defend those types of players. So Klay’s role defensively is very specific with this roster construction and it plays to his strengths defensively.

It's extremely difficult to quantify defensive impact. And I think this is the largest gap in the perception of Klay loyalists and other NBA fans.  How do you quantify how good Klay Thompson is defensively? Defensive win shares? (3.2)  Defensive rating? (106).  None of these stats are perfect.  He did receive a lot of support from Coach K in the team USA experience, but he was not guarding all world wings in the FIBA World Cup this fall.

So now Klay Thompson finds himself negotiating for the next contract, or at least his agent is. And as Zach Lowe has pointed out often, the max contract coming off of rookie contract is not the albatross that many people make it out to be. And given the new NBA Television deal, and the expected rise of the salary cap in the years to come, the $15 million per year deal Klay is asking for is likely to look very good in three seasons. Currently, Golden State is trying to play coy, and it’s been reported their offer is currently $13 million per year, $2 million less than Klay would like.  

In the end, maybe letting things play out in Restricted Free Agency may not be the worst case. 95 times out of 100, they’ll be forced to match a max contract offer similar to what Klay is asking for now anyway, (especially given his undervalued propensity to stay healthy) but, you never know.

Last season, Klay was already a divisive player, it was the Kevin Love trade rumors and the fact that Golden State was insistent on including Klay in a deal, that really drove a spike between Klay loyalists and other NBA fans.  It makes me think, if the deal had gone through and Klay Thompson was the best player on the Minnesota Timberwolves the season, how good could it be? How good could they be in 2 to 3 seasons with Klay as their best player?  I find it hard to believe that they would have a winning record.  

Maybe that’s a case against a max contract, but a max contract coming off a rookie deal (meaning not a max contract of the nature of Carmelo’s deal this off-season) with an expectation of an increasing salary cap?  Not so bad.  

I still believe the best move for Golden State would've been to trade for Kevin Love and I’m not a huge Love supporter.  The rest of that roster would've fallen into place but they would've increased their overall talent level. However, I can see how Klay Thompson is more valuable to Golden State than he would be to many other teams given the way he fits both offensively and defensively with the rest of that starting lineup.  Less than three weeks before he gets back to work, whether with or without the big extension.  Now the crazy Summer of Love is over.  Or was it really the Summer of Klay?