2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Future Bets

First of all, let me admit that I am probably a horrible gambler, and the reason I’m writing this post is because the last $10 in my SportsBetting.ag account is tied up in NFL future bets. If I suddenly stop writing about NBA lines or gambling again after the NFL season ends in late-December, that will probably mean that I’ve won my ‘over’ bets on the Chargers (8 wins) and the Patriots (11), and you should be happy for me.

Since I can’t yet bet on these preseason props, I’ll write about them instead. All bets are found in the ‘Future Props’ section on www.sportsbetting.ag, as are the odds and payouts, and these are wagers I would be making if I had the funds with which to make them. This method is much cheaper. I hope to make this a regular feature on the blog, and as always, feedback and counter-arguments are appreciated.

LOCKS:

New York Knicks to Miss the Playoffs +160

This is by far my biggest lock, to the point that it’s tempting not to just list this one bet and call it a column. The Knicks were a lottery team last season, with Tyson Chandler and getting an MVP-caliber season from Carmelo Anthony, and are in a transition year under rookie head coach Derek Fisher as he tries to institute Phil Jackson’s “Triangle Offense”. Outside of some young guards (Tim Hardaway Jr., Cleanthony Early, Iman Shumpert) with upside, and replacing Ray Felton with Jose Calderon, the rest of the roster lacks upside and it’s tough to see a rebound from last season’s 37 wins. The rest of the Eastern Conference improved, and I’m not sure if the Knicks can claim the same. Look elsewhere for the 8^th seed in the East.

Atlanta Hawks to Make the Playoffs +100

Casual fans stay sleeping on the Hawks. The team was a lock to finish with a top-five seed in an awful East last season had Al Horford stayed healthy, but still scrapped the 8^th spot after an All-Star season from Paul Millsap. The roster didn’t really improve this summer, outside of returning their starting center, and another year of Mike Budenholzer’s coaching should help the 18^th-ranked offense from last year, as Horford will build upon the 14^th-best defense. If the Hawks can get some consistency or a legitimate break-out season from Jeff Teague, they’ll be in the conversation again for a fifth seed. Atlanta might be better than Miami, Charlotte, Brooklyn, and the Knicks, with the only caveat that Horford, ‘Sap, and Teague stay healthy. Lock it up, especially at even money.

Houston Rockets over 49 wins -110

Are the Houston Rockets really the regression team? Shouldn’t James Harden and Dwight Howard be counted on to compensate for Chandler Parsons’s departure? Isn’t Trevor Ariza exactly what they needed last season – a perimeter defender who excels at spotting up from the corner-3’s? Aren’t the Rockets kind of stacked with tough young players with upside (Patrick Beverly, Isaiah Canaan, Terrence Jones, Donatas Montiejunas)? Is Kevin McHale a competent head coach? Why am I still speaking in questions?

Charlotte Hornets over 44.5 wins -110

Lance’ll make ‘em dance. Professor Al Jefferson in the post. Kemba Walker in a contract year. A reformed jump shot from an aggressive Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. A true spacing threat from the power forward to sit in the corners and create room for the offense to operate. Less Gerald Henderson and another year of whichever Zeller isn’t on the Celtics. Head coach Steve Clifford. A tough Southeast Division but the Eastern Conference. Four games over .500 seems safe.

Memphis Grizzlies over 49 wins -110

The Grizzlies went 50-32 and lost Marc Gasol for 22 games. Keep Gasol and Mike Conley healthy and this team could be a lock for a top-four seed in the West and their customary role of “team other teams don’t want to play in a playoff series”. The addition of the grizzled, old man, Vincent Lamar Carter, and Quincy Pondexter’s return from injury give the team its most talent at the wing since the days of Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo, and draft picks Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes are rotation players this season. This team has depth, talent, toughness, continuity, and some #veteranpresents, and is built to weather the regular season.

Atlanta Hawks over 41.5 wins -140

I wish this team had a quality, two-way starter at the wing (apologies to DeMarre Carrol and Kyle Korver) who could create their own shot and take pressure off of their bigs and Teague, but that’s the flip side to jettisoning Joey Johnson three years ago. The team finished first in assist percentage last season and Coach Bud’s offense is the inverse of their isolation days. Two All-Star caliber bigs in the East translate to above .500 pretty handily.

GOOD VALUE, MORE RISK:

Milwaukee Bucks over 24.5 wins -115

Everybody undersold Milwaukee’s ineptitude last season, as most of us thought adding replacement-level talent in free agency would translate at least to mediocrity. Instead Larry Sanders lost the caps-lock and exclamation point to his game, O.J. Mayo showed up to camp looking like he could play guard for Mike McCarthy, and the rookie draft picks (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nate Wolters) were about the only likeable Bucks last season. That veteran “talent” is still hanging around the roster, and bounce-back years from Ersan Illyasova, Zaza Pachulia, Sanders, and Mayo could get the team back to the mediocrity we expected in 2013-14. If Jason Kidd can coach up these reclamation projects and scheme enough of a defense out of some of these pieces, Jabari Parker and Brandon Knight should supply enough offense to get the team into the 20-win range. I think Coach Kidd’s small-ball concepts will work well with a long lineup of Knight, Khris Middleton, Giannis, Jabari, and Sanders, but a lot has to go right, and even a ten-win improvement over last seasons’ 15 wins will be significant.

Milwaukee Bucks to Make the Playoffs +600

I think I might’ve gone too far…

Los Angeles Clippers over 55.5 wins -125

Chris has the Clips as the #1 seed in the Western Conference this season, and even their most ardent detractors will admit they’ve been dialed in already this preseason. The stink of Donald Sterling is gone, replaced by Steve Ballmer’s creepy enthusiasm, and the city of Los Angeles has begun to embrace the Clips now that the Lakers are no longer trendy, making every home game a legitimate event. Jack Nicholson will show up to a couple of Clippers games this season, sending “Lakers Nation” into a panic, and Blake Griffin will come close to averaging 30 points per game. J.J. Reddick is a legitimate weapon now that he’s healthy and the team can’t help but increase its depth from last season. 56 wins are a lot, and the payout isn’t great, but the Clippers are going to be really, really good.

Brooklyn Nets to Miss the Playoffs +200

I’ve got this team at two games over .500 and the 8^th seed in the East, but it’s far from a lock and the Nets are one of the most susceptible teams to injury in the league, thanks to their employment of Brook Lopez and Deron Williams. The team is surprisingly deep, though, and young players like Mason Plumlee, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Mirza Teletovic (29 but in his third season) will especially need to step up in case of injury. Jarett Jack will hold down the backup point and start on back-to-backs, while “seven-time All-Star” Joe Johnson will soon make it eight. I like Brooklyn but +200 is tempting, and an injury to Brook or Deron makes a playoff appearance appreciably tougher.