2014-15 NBA Season Preview: The Chicago Bulls

AP Photo/Paul Beaty

I wanted to find an article to start this piece that would capture the general conclusion that is accepted by most knowledgeable NBA fans:  The Bulls owner, Jerry Reinsdorf is Cheap.  When I went looking for that article I was lost in a sea of criticism and could not find the story that captured the mindset perfectly.  Instead I drowned, because there are just too many examples of Reinsdorf not wanting to spend the extra money in any and all circumstances.  From rumors of not wanting to pay Michael Jordan (!), to the half-hearted swings and ‘misses’ in recent free agency talks (LeBron, then Carmelo), to not wanting to re-sign Luol Deng and dumping him during the season for nothing, to the Bulls reportedly being the most profitable NBA franchise consistently over the last ten years (sure it’s a great market, but it’s obvious Chicago controls it’s costs).  There’s just so much.  

Given that environment, I think Bulls GM Gar Forman should be commended for the job he did this off-season.  First, he had to convince Bulls ownership to amnesty Carlos Boozer (and therefore ‘eat’ his $16.8 million contract).  That opened up the flexibility to bring in a free agent (although not quite the level of Carmelo) in Pau Gasol.  They also were able to bring in 2011 first round pick Nikola Mirotic, former Most Improved Player, Aaron Brooks, and rookie (but seasoned) shooter, Doug McDermott (although in retrospect, they could have had Gary Harris and Rodney Hood if they don’t make that trade with Denver).  All in all though, I think Gar Forman achieved what he said was his goal for the off-season at Bulls media day:

GM Gar Forman: Bulls wanted to improve skill level/shooting, create more quality depth, and focus on Derrick Rose's health this offseason.
— Chicago Bulls (@chicagobulls) September 29, 2014

Forman: "We like the makeup and character of this basketball team. We've added depth and shooting. We're anxious to get going."
— Chicago Bulls (@chicagobulls) September 29, 2014

Forman is right, what this Bulls team was lacking last season (besides Derrick Rose) was outside shooting and depth.  Thibs rode his starters hard, even for him.  Six players totaled over 2000 minutes last season and Luol Deng, who averaged 37.4 minutes per game before being traded during the season, was not one of them.  D.J. Augustine (thrust into the role after the Rose injury) nearly topped 1900.  Outside of those seven players, Tony Snell was the only player that you might have considered a part of the ‘rotation’ and you could tell Thibs wasn’t ready to trust him with big minutes.  A seven man rotation over 82 games is going to wear down your players, and maybe that’s what we saw in the first round match-up against the Washington Wizards.

I wouldn’t call the Wizards winning that series a shock, but they were the inexperienced team compared to Chicago and it was more the way they won that was eye-opening.  The Wizards came into Chicago and in Games 1 and 2 took control of the paint and  bullied the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls needed 35 points out of Mike Dunleavy to get their only win in that series.  Was that because the players were worn down?

The Bulls are counting on that being the cause, and were determined to get deeper this off-season, which they did.  I am a bit concerned that maybe they’re not as deep as we’re expecting though.  Tony Snell seems poised to become a very valuable rotation player, however, as we saw last season, Thibs was really reticent to rely on him.  That’s not a fluke.  In order to crack the rotation in Chicago you must earn the coaches trust, that much is clear.  As we’ve seen, year after year, Thibs will just run the starters out there until they break down if they are the only ones he feels he can count on.  I wonder if McDermott and Mirotic in particular will be actual parts of the Bulls rotation this season as we expect them to be.  They both can be obvious contributors offensively, but is Thibs going to trust those guys to play defense?  

That’s not say they can’t fit in defensively.  While Dan Devine praised the defense he highlighted the Bulls (and Thibs) ability to get the best out of non-defensive players in his Ball Dont Lie Season Preview of this team:

“They play five-men-on-a-string defense, smothering pick-and-rolls and making you do things you don't want to do. They finished second in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing a miserly 97.8 points per 100 possessions, despite trading away longtime talisman Luol Deng midseason, and despite playing Carlos Boozer and D.J. Augustin for nearly 4,000 combined minutes.”

The team will be great defensively, and watching two of the best passing big men in the league in Gasol and Noah (averaged 5.4 assists per game last season) operate offensively should be fun.  Rose has come out and declared this team the best he’s played with in his career.  All of this means very little though, because the only way this team goes from a scrappy, talented playoff team to legitimate title contender, is if Derrick Rose plays… and plays well.

Of course if Rose gets hurt again, the Bulls will be knocked out of contention.  That’s not an argument.  It’s also impossible to predict.  I don’t know if it’s a good or a bad thing that Rose’s two injuries were on different knees (first left ACL tear, then right meniscus tear).  I’m not a doctor, and I don’t even think a doctor honestly could tell you if those injuries are correlated to each other or too his playing style or neither.  That’s irrelevant because if Rose is hurt or is forced to change his playing style to stay healthy, than the Bulls just aren’t the same.  My concern, or what I think the Bulls should be a bit concerned about is how well Rose is going to play, and to be more specific, how well he’s going to shoot.

Rose Pre-MVP Season Chart via NylonCalculus

Rose will never be Rondo, he’ll never be a pass first point guard.  He’s not going to morph his game that drastically at this point in his career.  If Rose is going to be successful, it’s going to be as a scoring point guard, because that’s what he is.  Rose only played 39 games leading to the left ACL tear in the 2012 playoffs and only 10 in between injuries last season.  I understand that’s a small sample size, and smaller than his MVP season, but look at the discrepancies in his shooting numbers (above).  His shooting has been a concern, and sure it could be categorized as rust and we can assume he gets it back, but how long will that take?  And at what point do we come to the realization that it’s not coming back?

Season Leading up to First Knee Injury via NylonCalculus

Kirk Goldsberry of Grantland had a great examination of Rose’s shooting numbers this fall.  Check it out if you haven't yet.  As Goldsberry correctly, pointed out, it was actually Rose’s pre-MVP season where Rose was so hyper-efficient at the mid-range attack.  As his career progressed, Rose began taking more 3’s and less mid-range shots and simultaneously his percentages in the mid-range fell as well. Look at his chart from 2009-10 compared to 2011-12 before the injury in the playoffs.  Sure, the league had already begun trending towards valuing shot attempts from beyond the three point line and at the rim, but Rose was special at what he did, maybe he shouldn't have been in such a rush to evolve.  

It’ll be interesting to see how things play out for Rose and the Bulls for many reasons this year. There’s no reason if Rose is healthy that he can’t be a solid defender and score plenty for this Bulls team that, although they’ve brought in more weapons, will likely always need scoring. However, it’s how Rose is attacking opposing defenses that will intrigue me most while he’s on the floor.  It may be the efficiency that Rose will need to take this version of the Chicago Bulls to a title.