Defending the Orlando Magic's Off-Season

via NBA.com

The Orlando Magic have been one of the most active teams this off-season thus far between the draft, the Afflalo trade, and their recent free agent signings.  There has been a bit of a backlash against Orlando for these moves.  I think I'm in the minority here, but I've liked the collection of moves and I am excited for the future version of the Orlando Magic.

Let's start with the Afflalo deal.  This is probably my least favorite move of their off-season and I'm actually a bit high on Evan Fournier.  We'll get to Fournier, but I think part of the reason many fans questioned the Afflalo deal was the perception that he had more value.  In theory, that makes sense.  Everyone had their own ideas about a possible Afflalo deal, and with good reason.  He's the type of player that would seemingly fit on almost any team.  A true three and D guy who you could get away with playing at either position on a cost-effective contract (albeit fairly short term).  If Orlando could have gotten a first round pick for Afflalo though, don't you think they would have?  Maybe our perception of Afflalo's value in the market was a bit higher than it actually was heading into the draft.  Team's love those first round picks after all.

Instead Afflalo netted them Evan Fournier and the 56th pick in the draft which turned out to be Roy Devyn Marble (quick tangent:  Roy Devyn Marble is the son of the 1989 23rd overall pick, Roy Marble who spent the 1993-94 season playing in the CBA for the Shreveport Crawdads.  Can we have the CBA back please?  Stagger the season so it doesn't overlap with the NBA.  I'd be in on that.).  Marble looks to be a capable scorer who will hone his skills in the Developmental League (under the Magic's control due to the new D-League structure).  Fournier is still only 21 years old, and a career 38% three point shooter.  He is a rotation player, can handle the ball a bit, and will certainly give the Magic more than Jameer Nelson did last season.

Overall, I'm ok with the trade.  Again, it's not my favorite move, but it makes me wonder what Afflalo's value really was.  Would the Lakers really trade Julius Randle to Orlando for Afflalo after the draft?  I don't think they would, so why would they have traded the # 7 pick for Afflalo beforehand?

Next came the draft where Orlando picked two players that were highly regarded by the league, media, and fans until they ended up on the same team with Oladipo.  Listen, I get it.  Payton, Oladipo, and Gordon will leave a lot to be desired on the offensive side of the ball this season.  That's fair.  The thing is, it's not about next season for the Magic.  They have been very patient during the post-Howard rebuild gathering solid young players.  They may not have the superstar they will someday need to build a contender, but how many teams in the NBA do?  This is not the end game for Orlando and that's my biggest quibble with the criticism they are getting.

As far as who they drafted, how can you watch these summer league games and not get excited.  Payton was a guy that shot up the draft boards after all the basketball had been played.  He played for a small school, couldn't shoot, but was apparently lighting up draft workouts.  Once I saw him on the floor in summer league, I immediately was impressed with his size.  He's a big dude for a point guard, with plenty of athleticism to be able to play above the rim.  His quickness allows him to already be a pesky defender and you can tell his passing skills are there (always a sucker for a passing point guard).

And speaking of athleticism.  Again, even in summer league you can tell Aaron Gordon is going to have no problem contributing despite his limited offensive skills.  He's a beast.  He's always on the move.  He's had a few rebounds above the rim in summer league that have almost gotten me out of my chair.  Let me repeat that, his rebounds are exciting.  He also is quick to take a defensive rebound into transition quickly.  I believe ball handling and shooting are the easiest skills to learn as an NBA player.  Those are his weaknesses.  I'm not sure he'll ever be the Superstar that Orlando 'needs' but I don't see any future in which that kid is not an All-Star in three to five years.

Again,  it's not about this season.  The Magic will likely struggle (maybe even hopefully struggle) and if that means Jacque Vaughn is the sacrificial lamb, well that might even be the best case scenario.  Add in another high lottery pick next season and I'm on board with the core.  Shooting is absolutely at its highest value right now around the league (ahem...Jodie Meeks), that's fair, but I think it's dangerously close to being overvalued as well.  Sure the Spurs shot the ball at an unreal level in the Finals, they also defended at an amazingly underrated level, out-rebounded Miami (by over 5 a game) and their unmatched passing created open shots.  There's value in defense, rebounding, and passing as well.

One last thought on the value of shooting:  Russell Westbrook, a career 30% 3 point shooter.  Derrick Rose, a career 31% 3 point shooter.  Rajon Rondo, a career 25% 3 point shooter  A player can be very very good in this league without being a great shooter.

I agree though; shooting is important.  And Orlando has done some things to address that as well.  Those moves have been met with criticism as well.  Orlando signed Ben Gordon to a two-year $9 million deal and Channing Frye to a 4-year, $32 million dollar deal.  Adding some veteran shooters to this team seems perfectly reasonable.

Sure Ben Gordon has struggled the past few seasons, but as Zach Harper pointed out on the Eye on Basketball Podcast, this is basically Gordon's last shot at making himself some money in the NBA.  A fresh start for him with some youthful, exciting teammates may be just what he needs.  If that's not the case... well the deal is not guaranteed in year two.  So it's essentially Ben Gordon's expiring contract from day one, that has value.

The big knock against the Channing Frye deal as articulated by Bill Simmons on his podcast with Zach Lowe is that his elite skill (93rd percentile on Pick and Pop situations) will be diminished by not playing with Bledsoe and Dragic.  That's one way to look at it.  I'm more prone to agree with Zach Lowe's counter that maybe Frye in the Pick and Pop opens things up for the ball handlers (Payton, Oladipo, even Gordon).  He's a great fit as a stretch four for a team that didn't have shooting or a power forward.  He'll provide a good locker room presence for a young team.  As far as the contract goes, is $8 million really that ridiculous?  That's what Avery Bradley got.  That's what Ryan Anderson makes.  And Ilyasova.   Amir Johnson makes $7 million.  Also, consider this, Channing Frye and Ben Gordon will be the only players on this roster not on their rookie contract.  This deal does nothing to hinder their cap flexibility for the next four years.  In that respect, there is almost no downside.

Overall, I don't think many of the moves Orlando made this off-season move the needle for next year.  They are likely to win another 25-35 games and end up with a pick between 5 and 10 unless things go extremely wrong or extremely right.  Maybe that's the criticism.  Maybe there's the belief that a different Afflalo trade, a different draft night and a different approach to free agency would have this team in the playoffs next year.  I don't think that's the goal for Orlando though.  They're not concerned with next season.  Let's at least see what the trio of Payton, Oladipo, and Gordon look like in three years.  Let's see if any of them can develop into a competent shooter.  Let's see if they extend Vucevic and/or who they draft next year.  Let's see who's coaching this team, what style they're playing, and what the roster looks like in three years, because that's what Rob Hennigan is concerned with, not next June.