#6 - Boston Celtics

Michael Weinstein

What I’d Do:

Julius Randle – Kentucky

6’9” (7’ wingspan), 250 lbs., 11/29/1994 (19 years old)

It’s been barely a full year into the next rebuilding phase of their franchise’s history but the Boston Celtics and their fans already seem frustrated with it. It was a fun, albeit brief, period of contention for the C’s, with a title and a Finals loss during the KG/Paul Pierce/Ray Allen era, but the memories of the long rebuild of the ‘90’s are still too recent. Executive Director of Basketball Operations Danny Ainge came back to the organization in the mid-2000’s and went to work breaking up the Antoine Walker/Pierce team and stacking enough assets to cash in before the 2007 Draft. There were some ugly trades at the time; I can still remember the Antoine Walker trade breaking on my way to a history exam my freshman year of college. Instead of studying before class I can recall being on the phone bitching about Raef LaFrentz’s contract and dreaming on Jiri Welsch’s upside.

The next few years were long and increasingly frustrating, with an aging Paul Pierce moping in huddles and wasting occasionally brilliant performances. Ainge loved him some trades though, constantly flipping the same pieces he had coveted and talked up just the year before (Jiri Welsch begat Ricky Davis who begat Wally Szczerbiak who begat Delonte West, etc.). He was able to nail a couple of potential franchise guys (Al Jefferson at #15 in 2004 and Rajon Rondo at #21 in 2006 ) and defensive-oriented role players (Kendrick Perkins at #27 in 2003 and Tony Allen at #25 in 2004) with relatively modest first round picks, while grabbing an extra first or second rounder in his many trades. He also believed early in spending on a head coach with strong communication skills who could develop as an NBA head coach as he helped his young guys develop into NBA players. There are some parallels to the current rebuild.

Brad Stevens spent his first season adjusting to the particular stresses of an NBA head coach, losing more with the Celtics than he did in seasons at Butler. Despite the sometimes visual frustrations he would wear during his halftime interviews, he kept the locker room relatively quiet and drama-free, and had his players playing hard all season. The roster was oftentimes ugly and lacked the kind of athletes or spacing to fit a modern NBA offense (think a lot of Jared Sullinger follow-tips off of Jordan Crawford/Jerryd Bayless DGAF jumpers). The fact that Stevens hadn’t flipped out and Sprewell’d a referee all season bodes well for the rebuild, and he shares many of the same leadership qualities that enabled Doc Rivers to succeed in Boston.

Rajon Rondo might find himself in a similar position to the Paul Pierce of that pre-Big 3 era. Coming off an injury in his mid to late 20’s, Pierce found his name in trade rumors constantly during the offseasons, at one point squashing a trade to Portland that would have brought back the draft pick that would be Chris Paul. The Celtics went from trying to acquire the #3 pick in the 2005 Draft for Pierce to resigning him to a 3 year, $60 million deal a year later. But it took a lot of patience and sacrifice for Pierce to mature enough to win a championship and, as the 2005 first round playoff series against Indiana would attest, it wasn’t quick or easy. Rajon is entering a contract year after taking a discount during the KG years, and this is where the patience becomes especially important.

Rondo’s looming free agency is, I think, where most of the frustration and impatience stems from. He returned from his partially torn ACL to play in 30 games this season and looked pretty good, although it was tough to measure on such a poor team, and should look for a max contract in 2015 at age 28. Signing the last big contract of your limited athletic career on a team with Kelly Olynyk and Gerald Wallace might not make the most basketball-sense. Obviously Rondo is the only transcendent player on the current roster but if they’re going to load up on rookies and prospects, maxing Rondo out might not make much Celtics-sense either. He’s too good of a passer and point guard to waste away with role players, and that’s why I think the Celtics look hard at trading this pick or trading Rondo.

As you’ve no doubt read or heard by now, the Celtics don’t have much in the way of talent to offer in any potential trade for a star veteran. The aforementioned Jared Sullinger averaged 13 points and 8 rebounds in 27.6 minutes per game this season but at 42.7% from the field (47.5% on 2’s) and played in 74 games after having offseason back surgery. He’s listed at 6’9”, 280 lbs. and we’ll see if that changes next year. Kelly Olynyk, the seven foot, #13 pick last draft, played better after some minor injuries down the stretch and finished at 8.7 points and 5.2 rebounds in 20 minutes per game, with 46.6% from the field and a respectable 35.1% from 3. Both are viewed around the league as bench bigs.

Jeff Green led the team in scoring but succeeded in frustrating even his most ardent supporters in the process. Avery Bradley is reaching restricted free agency this offseason after not getting extended by the team, and could be a sneaky sign-and-trade third guard for a contender. Brandon Bass has a year left at about $7 million and could also help somebody off the bench with his FT line jumper. Anybody can have Gerald Wallace’s two years and $20 million for their preferred type of sandwich in return.

The real assets for the Celtics are their own upcoming draft picks (#6 in this draft), potential cap space and the picks they’ve stashed in last offseason’s rebuild (the #17 in 2014 from Brooklyn, Clippers first round pick in 2015, Nets firsts in 2016 and ’18, the right to swap picks in 2017 with Brooklyn and a potential first that will most likely be two seconds from Philadelphia). The value of those assets reportedly varies wildly in the league and, more importantly, on Basketball Twitter but the unknown and cost control of draft picks could get the Celtics in on conversations for Kevin Love or Al Horford, at least. The addition of a big man of that quality (or LaMarcus Aldridge or Joakim Noah, who I refuse to believe are actually available) with Rondo allows you to avoid the rigorous rebuild and contend in a weak Eastern Conference for the next few seasons.

I just can’t see Kevin Love getting traded in the week we have here before the draft, with Minnesota’s owner, Glen Taylor, and part-owner-and-everything-else, Flip Saunders, seemingly oblivious to Love’s trade requests (and weekend in Boston!). Flip still thinks he can convince Love the Timberwolves can be the 2013-14 Portland Trail Blazers but Love remains adamant that he’s out. Either way it’ll be a process, one that should annoyingly play itself out throughout the summer, fall and possibly winter.

As far as Al Horford, that would be my more realistic preference to target in a trade, as he’s a wildly underrated two-way big who has a good relationship with Ainge going back to draft workouts in 2007. I have no idea why Atlanta would want to trade him, however Danny Ferry can make almost any move at any point in his Atlanta tenure as general manager. Still, I don’t think anything substantial gets done before the actual draft so Boston is drafting purely from their own perspective and not in any pre-arranged deals.

As I’ve spent the last thousand words explaining, the Celtics don’t have a strong roster or particular strength that alters their draft philosophy, it should be best player available. That could depend on Rondo’s future with the team but this draft isn’t strong at point guard anyways so thankfully that issue doesn’t have to be addressed. My point of view coming into this pick, and what I think Danny Ainge might even agree with, is to draft best player available with an eye on trade value.

I have it as Julius Randle here and I’ll explain. Power forward might be the only position on this roster that the Celtics could conceivably say they’re solid in going into 2014-15, with Sullinger and Olynyk their only young pieces. Randle, at 6’9”, 250 lbs., might resemble Sullinger in body type and game, with Randle more polished in the post and on offense and Sully on defense. Coach Stevens could play one of Sully or Olynyk at center alongside Randle and just take the defensive pounding that would ensue from not protecting the rim. Randle and Sullinger particularly are both strong rebounders with active hands and would presumably grab any defensive boards they could force.

Two things stood out to me in the limited time I spent with this Celtics team this season, and that was the lack of spacing and the absence of anyone who could create their own shot, especially in the first half of the season without Rajon Rondo. From Avery Bradley to Jeff Green to Sullinger, there were guys who could score a little and finish some plays but they just aren’t able to generate shots for themselves or others, even with Rondo. Watch Jeff Green throw up bad fade-away jumpers or Bradley struggle to dribble against a modicum of pressure and it’ll have you frustrated and impatient too.

Randle can score in the post. Rondo might get bored with it but he could just dump it into the block and let Randle go to work. And score is the only thing Randle will do in the post, as he averaged 1.4 assists per game with a loaded Kentucky team and scouting reports have mentioned his lack of passing going back to his high school days. It’s probably not a prerequisite when you feel you can score on any possession but NBA double teams and complex defenses will be fun for Randle in his first few months.

The draft combine might have actually helped Julius Randle refute some of the unathletic rumors. While only 6’9” in shoes with seemingly short arms, he measured at a 7’ wingspan and 35” vertical jump with 9.4% body fat at the combine. Although Randle is a verifiable low-post scorer there are some concerns that his relative lack of athleticism and left-hand dominance could force him to make adjustments in the pros. His footwork is too good, and I’m excited to see he and Andrew Wiggins bring back the spin move next season. He also claims to possess a perimeter game that can stretch out to the occasional 3 that we didn’t get to see under John Calipari at Kentucky but will be needed against NBA defenses.

I take Randle if I’m the Celtics and start him from day one, and let him score on the block and hope he can move his feet enough on the other end. The difference between him and Noah Vonleh, the other power forward available, is vast in their games and style of play, but especially in their mentalities and intangibles. As all freshmen are apt to do, both young bigs struggled at times and put up lackluster statlines, but when Julius Randle underperformed it was talked about on SportsCenter. Vonleh has some very intriguing physical capabilities with long range shooting and shot-blocking potential but I feel more comfortable with Randle reaching his potential over Vonleh.

That might be unfair and based on my own projections, but Randle’s ranking as a top 3 high school recruit and relative ease in handling the ensuing spotlight and responsibilities is impressive. Vonleh was the #13 recruit in the same class and his nervousness in interviews and lack of team success at Indiana might ultimately prove pointless, and the Chris Bosh comparisons don’t seem too outlandish. But, remember, Danny Ainge might be assembling talent just to make a run at a veteran big and Rondo might not be around to play with the further-away Vonleh if not. Randle will put up the traditional stats sooner and could have the most trade value, as I think the Celtics don’t want to wait on any of these rookies.

An Adrian Wojnarowski report about Randle needing foot surgery could affect his end result and render all this moot on draft night. With Sullinger’s back issues maybe hurting his own long-term trade value, the similarities between the two continue and Randle’s foot issues could take him off the Celtics’ radar. Randle already refuted Woj’s bomb on his Twitter page shortly after and it’s likely the foot won’t present an issue, at least long-term. He’s my pick at #6.

The pattern continues for Danny Ainge in rebuilding the Boston Celtics in the same manner he did before the 2007 Draft. He has his bright-eyed head coach, disgruntled and uncertain star, overrated young bench prospects, and a potential left-handed version of Al Jefferson (crossed with Derrick Coleman) available at #6 with Julius Randle. We’ve seen one version of the ending already, and it’s uncertain if Ainge can again turn a young big and picks into another future Timberwolves Hall of Famer. The other path will be as long and frustrating as we remember it.

What I Think They’ll Do:

The two targets at the top of Ainge’s draft board seems to be Aaron Gordon and Marcus Smart, two defensive-oriented athletes who can contribute on that end of the floor immediately. Chris presents the case for Aaron Gordon to Utah but it’s fun to fantasize on what a potential Andre Iguodala/Andrei Kirilenko-type athlete could do within Brad Stevens’s defense and running the break with Rajon Rondo. Stevens might have to devote an assistant coach to work on Gordon’s shot full-time, however, to improve his confidence at the FT line and to make teams at least guard him in the half-court. Gordon also solves my self-prescribed need for athleticism on this roster.

Marcus Smart would preclude the Celtics from matching any offer to Avery Bradley this offseason, as their games seem pretty similar. Smart is stronger and can actually dribble the basketball without looking at it but offers the same shaky jumper and reduced quickness. I’m not sure how he and Rondo play together in the half-court with their lack of perimeter shooting, but their on-ball pressure would be relentless and could compensate for the lack of rim protection in the frontcourt. I go back to my two things observation about the C’s and don’t think Smart can really create his own shot consistently or spread the court, though. I think Ainge can address the shooting guard position with an actual shooter at #17 with starting potential, as Rondo works best kicking to catch-and-shoot players on the perimeter.

This is the highest draft pick for the Celtics since the 2007 Draft (*moment of silence*) and an important selection for their rebuilding process. I think picking Marcus Smart means that Avery Bradley isn’t retained in free agency, but that they ultimately select best player available and Julius Randle here, with the hopes of trading for a veteran.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

Hold on, I have to take a phone call.

So apparently the Magic are making Arron Afflalo and the #12 available for a lottery pick. Interesting. If I felt the Celtics were close enough to a playoff spot Affalo would make some sense as an above average 2-guard, but if they were that close they wouldn’t have the draft pick to trade.

Now would they trade this pick for DeMar DeRozan and #20? DeRozan is still young enough and on a reasonable contract, with some upside still left to realize. You’d need to improve the big man position through trade but Rondo/DeRozan/Green/Sully/Omer Asik could be a (sad) playoff team in a(n) (sad) Eastern Conference.

I don’t think Ainge makes a move without other moves to follow and isn’t content to crack .500. I doubt anything goes down before the draft (although don’t count out Ferry!) but Ainge will be in on everything. The #6 will have no more value than it will on draft night and if Cleveland or someone besides Cleveland does something stupid, who knows which team wants to move up. I think Ainge has calls out to every team and has some Machiavellian/Riley-avellian schemes up his sleeve, and the biggest pieces would be Kevin Love and Al Horford.

If Horford is available I team him and Rondo up, and shop Jeff Green and any other picks for a two-way wing that can score in the 4th quarter (until I realize that perfect player doesn’t exist). Kevin Love is the best-case scenario as he’s a better basketball player than my beloved Horford but still requires secondary moves to build up the defense.

Those two players are maybe top 15-20 overall in the league and acquiring that type of talent in their primes would be franchise-altering for any franchise besides maybe the Lakers, who should be used to that kind of thing. The Celtics’ trove of draft picks enables them to be in these conversations but the lack of young talent on the roster could stall discussions there. If so, look for Rondo to be the next big name in the rumor mill, once Kevin Love’s situation is settled.