Wednesday, June 18, 2014

#4 - Orlando Magic


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What I’d Do:

Dante Exum - Australia
6’6” (6’9.5” wingspan), 196 lbs., 07/13/1995 (18 years old)

It’s been two seasons since the Orlando Magic made the Dwight Howard trade and, despite finishing a combined 78 games under .500 in that span, they’re clearly the winners in the deal. We’ll get to the Lakers and Nuggets later on in this mock but Orlando counted on Nikola Vucevic, Arron Afflalo and Moe Harkless to start games for them this season (albeit for the third-worst team in the league) and still has the #12 pick in this draft, a 2017 Lakers first rounder and a future Philadelphia first coming. Vucevic is a possible long-term piece at center that will be up for an extension next offseason (as will Tobias Harris) and Harkless and Andrew Nicholson will be playing for extensions the following season. Afflalo should have been an All-Star this year and has quietly suggested he would be open to a trade to a playoff contender, and should be a trade asset with two years and $15 million remaining (with 2015-16 a player option).


The #2 pick last year, Victor Oladipo, made his fair share of rookie mistakes (turnovers and shot selection, mostly) in his 80 games that were offset by his spectacular plays and flashes of two-way impact. Orlando tried to develop him at point guard to play alongside Afflalo but he’s still a combo guard at heart and needs to work on his handle and decision-making to be a primary ball-handler in the half-court. I see some young Lance Stephenson and Russell Westbrook tendencies in a still-raw ‘Dipo, with plenty of development potential under head coach Jacque Vaughn and GM Rob Hennigan. His playmaking and defensive abilities would be an asset at shooting guard and allow Orlando to fulfill Afflalo’s wishes and move him for a pick or maybe a veteran big that can work with the kids in practice and still play (unlike Jason Maxiell).

Dante Exum makes a lot of sense to Orlando in a few different ways. The 6’6” Australian is the best point guard in the draft and best player available in our scenario. He’s not a pure point by any stretch, as he’s too good of a scorer, and early comparisons to Brandon Roy stuck with me. I love me some old-school, break it down-and-dish PG’s more than anyone but I don’t feel that idealistic archetype fits with this current Magic roster. This team needs shooting and scoring, particularly someone who can generate their own offense and take pressure off of their overmatched role players. Much like the Bucks roster I had earlier in this exercise, there are long-limbed pieces in place to form the framework of a decent defense, but the Magic are desperately deficient in scoring. Jabari is the best offensive prospect in this draft but Exum could be second.

I’m already offering around Afflalo to trade up with my second pick if I’m the GM and start Oladipo at the 2 and draft Exum at point. They could both be combo guards, but I think they can play off of each other really well because of their differing mentalities. Oladipo is a defensive-first player who loves to pressure the ball and play passing lanes, leading to fast break highlights and the Westbrook-ian athleticism. He’s steadily building the mid-range, pick-and-roll jumper and consistent 3-point stroke but remains a willing passer if shaky dribbler, leading to a 4.2 turnover per game average in his rookie year. I think he would embrace and complement Exum’s offensive game early, and they could get each other easy buckets in transition, forming a Bizarro version of Washington’s John Wall/Brad Beal backcourt. Marcus Smart is way too similar to Oladipo, to me, with the same scouting reports (defensive combo guard with shaky jumper).

Orlando could use a clear-cut starter at the power forward, no question. Especially after they (presumably) extend Vucevic, finding a talented frontcourt partner that can either stretch the floor or score around the basket will be a priority in filling out this starting lineup. Noah Vonleh or Julius Randle would look really nice in those respective roles for Orlando but #4 is too high for either, in my opinion. I’m on hold with other GM’s as we speak with offers of Afflalo and the #12 to move into that #6-9 range for Vonleh or Randle.

They could follow the same strategy but with a PF at #4 and Marcus Smart after trading up from #12 but Exum is on a whole different level than Smart. 6’6” point guards who can score a bunch, dribble and pass a little and can project to play some defense don’t come along very often, especially for a team that needs a foundational talent with star potential. Take Exum, let him and Oladipo run wild and then evaluate the wings and bigs they’ve been collecting. I’m just hoping for health and Lil’ Dante commercials.

What I Think They’ll Do:

I may have been on the “WTF is Rob Hennigan doing?” bandwagon after the Dwight trade. Clearly he has the okay from ownership to be patient on his rebuild and has done a great job of keeping margins low while in the talent acquisition process. His philosophy has centered around taking on high-character talent who can play both ends of the floor, which seems to be the main argument in the pro-Marcus Smart discussion. At a certain point you need to take a risk and draft for upside in the hopes that you can find the next franchise player which makes the game easier for your high-character role players. Hennigan is patient and believes in player development, which is why I think they take Dante Exum.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

I mentioned in my Milwaukee piece that I’d do #2 for #4 and #12 from Milwaukee’s perspective and acquire more talent. Andrew Wiggins and Victor Oladipo would form the most ath-a-letic and defensively aggressive backcourt in the league since maybe Gary Payton and Nate MacMillan, but all of Orlando’s offense would come from either offensive rebound put-backs or fast break dunks and lay-ups. There are a lot of limited offensive pieces on Orlando’s roster (basically everyone but Vucevic and Afflalo, and even they can’t really create their own looks) and that would be more complicated with Andrew Wiggins. Exum would give this franchise a potential star scorer and explosive guard not seen in the O-Town since the mid-90’s. If they can move up for Joel Embiid then I think they explore it but otherwise Exum could be #2 on their board over Wiggins and Jabari because of positional need. I’m saving my crazy Magic trade for #12.

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