# 26 - Miami Heat

 

Associated Press

Editor's Note: For this pick Mitchell and I abandoned the every other pattern we've been using because I loved this fit for Miami and couldn't realistically come up with a trade for them to get to an odd number that would make sense for them.  Mitchell will be making the # 29 pick instead.

What I’d Do:

Spencer Dinwiddie - Colorado

6’6” (6’8” wingspan), 205 lbs, 4/6/1993 (21 years old)

I haven’t really watched SportsCenter in months to be honest.  For those that watch it regularly, you will probably come to despise the Miami Heat situation and Lebron James no matter what his ultimate decision is.  I suppose that’s inevitable.  That’s alright.  Mitchell and I will continue to combat the casual fan narrative:  the idea that Lebron somehow owes something to the League, to Dwayne Wade, to Pat Riley, to Mario Chalmers.  For those that can see through the outer layer of narrative, the Miami Heat situation is fascinating.

Pat Riley’s press conference was the beginning.  I’ve only heard this podcast twice, but the most recent Juliet Show had a great discussion about Pat Riley (including a Pat Riley as the Tywin Lannister of the NBA comparison!!!).  It did seem like a power play.  A calculated move to put pressure on Lebron.  Lebron countered by opting out and now Chad Ford is reporting that Miami is willing to trade up to get a backup point guard because Lebron tweeted about him in March.  I think we all know who has the power here.  

I think it’s unfair to say Brian Windhorst rode Lebron’s coat tails to journalistic prominence.  Windhorst is well respected throughout the league and has obviously cultivated some amazing contacts.  It’s not unfair to say that if there was no Lebron, Windhorst might still be working with the amazing Terry Pluto at The Plain Dealer instead of the largest sports writing platform in the world.  That’s not a knock on Windhorst.  He’s a great journalist who seized an amazing opportunity aggressively.  It does illustrate the power of Lebron though.  He has his own gravitational pull.  

Between Lebron, Carmelo, and Love this off-season may turn into the craziest we’ve seen yet.  Even crazier than 2010.  That’s pretty amazing considering we spent almost the entire NBA season assuming it would be quite mundane when the Big 3 and Carmelo all re-signed.  It started yesterday with the Knicks and Houston moving rim protectors. The Knicks move was triggered by Carmelo’s opt out.  Houston’s by both Carmelo and Lebron.  Tonight has the potential to be one of the craziest drafts in memory because of all these moving parts.

Shabazz Napier may be who Pat Riley thinks Lebron wants, but I don’t buy he’s the best fit.  In fact, Spencer Dinwiddie could be more talented and the Heat might be better served trading down into the start of the second round to grab him instead of giving up any potential asset they might have (they don’t have much right now) in order to trade up for Napier.  Let me explain.

Spencer Dinwiddie, if healthy, would have been a high lottery pick, I am convinced.  He is a 6’6” point guard that can absolutely do it all.  He somehow managed to decrease his usage rate while producing at the same level on a Colorado that he was absolutely carrying this year before the injury.  Colorado was 14-2 before Dinwiddie blew out his knee against Washington including a win against Kansas (where Dinwiddie had 15 and 7 assists) and a tough loss to Oklahoma St (Dinwiddie matched Marcus Smart’s 18 on 6 of 14 shooting).  After Dinwiddie’s injury, Colorado went 9-10.  He can not only score (68% career true shooting % and 8.9 free throw attempts per 40 in two consecutive seasons), he also has a 2.18 assist to turnover rate leading to the belief he may be able to play point guard.  Also, his nickname is 'The Mayor'.

He fits perfectly with Miami to me.  He has great size.  He can shoot.  He can be a ball handler, but playing with Miami does not have to be the primary ball handler.  Defensively, he is not exceptional, but he has size and lateral quickness, has solid steal numbers, and paired with other great defensive players (Bosh and James) in a great defensive system, he may thrive.  The biggest concern is the ACL injury.  It’s the reason you could get a player this good, so late.  It’s certainly a concern.  However, ACL injuries are far from career ending with today’s medical advancements (see Blake Griffin).  I think the risk is worth it.  Miami has to take risks to find supplemental talent for the Big 3.

This all assumes that Lebron, Wade, and Bosh are coming back.  That’s a huge assumption and unfortunately, Miami has no idea what those three are going to do when they’re making draft day decisions.  It’ll be fascinating to watch.

What I Think They’ll Do:

It pretty much seems like Napier is the guy.  I don’t think they have to go too high to get him, but I expected Toronto to draft Ennis.  If there’s a chance they go Napier instead, than Miami will have to make something crazy work to get up ahead of # 21.  That seems like the most likely scenario.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:  

I tried working Tyson Chandler into as many of these draft day trades as possible.  I’m glad to see him get out of New York.  In the aftermath, the Iman Shumpert to Miami for this # 26 pick seems pretty reasonable.  If I’m Miami, I think I make that move rather than Napier.  Of course, it’s Lebron’s call.