#20 - Toronto Raptors

NBA.com

What I’d Do:

Tyler Ennis – Syracuse

6’2” (6’7.25” wingspan), 182 lbs., 08/24/1994 (19 years old)

The Toronto Raptors are probably the most difficult team in the league to predict, this offseason. Such is life when Masai Ujiri is your general manager.

They could have been the most difficult team to predict this season, at least for the first few weeks after the Rudy Gay trade. The trade to Sacramento shook up the Internet and changed the ceiling of the team, propelling the Raptors to a 41-22 record post-trade. The ball started moving on offense and Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan stepped up to lead the Raps to the most successful season in franchise history (!), losing Game 7 in the first round by a single point.

The immediate fallout from the trade was all over the place. Nobody really knew the potential of the team without Gay and a lot of speculation revolved around this being the first domino to fall in Ujiri’s rebuilding plan. I wish I could remember the insane trades being thrown around in the first week or two after it but they mostly revolved around moving DeRozan for the NBA-equivalent of a bag of chips (or KLOE to the New York Knicks for Ray Felton and like a 2017 first rounder).

Obviously the rebuild never happened, as the team promptly snapped a five-game losing streak after the December 9th trade and went from six games under .500 to a game over a month later. Losing Gay meant more shots for other players, as Gay posted a 30.8% Usage Percentage (!!), and only three other Raptors posted higher than 20% Usage this season (DeRozan, KLOE, and Greivis Vasquez).

DeRozan benefitted the most from the increased offensive responsibilities, making his first All-Star appearance and leading the team with a 28% Usage Percentage (Non-Rudy Division). He averaged 22.7 points, 4.3 boards, 4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 2.2 turnovers per game on 38.2 minutes and 42.9/30.5/82.4 triple-slash percentages (FG, 3FG, FT), and was 7th in the league in FTA’s  per game (eight per game). He’s signed for two more seasons with a player option in 2016-17 at about $28 million total. In typical Masai Ujiri fashion, he’s either the closest thing the Raptors have to a franchise player or he’s available in trade this summer.

Kyle Lowry was a solid #2 option next to DD this season and could’ve been an All-Star himself. He averaged 17.9 points, 4.7 boards, 7.4 dimes, 1.5 steals, and 2.5 turnovers in 36.2 minutes per game, with 42.3/38/81.3 percentages on 13.7/6.3/4.9 attempts. Lowry was able to slightly rehabilitate his image as a problem in the locker room and the team seemed to take on some of his personality as a tough, defensive-minded team (10th in Offensive Rating, 10th in Defense). He’s a free agent this summer, at age 29, and should be looking for as close to a max contract as he can get. The fact that Ujiri didn’t trade Lowry during the season for a future first round pick should tell you how valuable he was to the franchise and to the locker room this season.

Masai Ujiri’s reputation as an aggressive GM isn’t completely unfounded, given his work with the Denver Nuggets organization. He was largely-responsible for the Carmelo Anthony trade within his first year upon being promoted to Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations and GM and probably “won” the trade with the Knicks, with Carmelo opting-out this summer and Denver still having the option to swap first round picks in 2016 (and whatever pick the Knicks end up with goes to Toronto from the Bargnani trade! Masai!). He re-signed Nene Hilario to a 5-year, $43 million extension and then traded him in a little more than three months (for Javale McGee!).

While we were all sick of hearing about the “Dwightmare” Masai got involved as the third (or fourth?) team, ending up with Andre Iguodala and putting together the best Nuggets record in their history in the NBA (!!!). He was the NBA’s Executive of the Year in 2012-13 but let go in the house-cleaning that also claimed (Coach of the Year) George Karl that summer, landing the GM job with Toronto almost immediately. As far as the Toronto Raptors, it’s only a matter of “when” and not “if” Masai starts making moves.

That’s what makes this offseason so interesting for the Drakes. Expectations and fan enthusiasm for the team are at maybe an all-time high and the Kyle Lowry unrestricted free agency situation will be a great test of that good-will. This could be the biggest payday of Lowry’s athletic career and he’s played his ass off this season to get that money, I just don’t think it’ll be with Toronto.

Usiri’s cap situation is pretty tricky, with over $31 million in guaranteed contracts to six players (DeRozan, Landry Fields, Chuck Hayes, Steve Novak, Jonas Valanciunas, and Terrence Ross) and partially-guaranteed contracts accounting for over $17 million on three more players (John Salmons, Amir Johnson, and Tyler Hansbrough). Of those three, only Amir is expected to be retained and Salmons and Hansbrough can be bought-out before June 29th/30th for a combined $2 million.

In-season acquisitions and key bench-contributors Patrick Patterson, Greivis Vasquez, and Nando de Colo are all restricted free agents whose cap holds will prevent the Raps from having actual cap space, despite sitting at around $51 million (counting the non guaranteed contracts and qualifying offers). The team can renounce the rights to Lowry, PPat, Vasquez, and Nando and buy-out Salmons and Hansbrough, and potentially have $15 million or more in cap space (assuming a $63 million salary cap).

As to whether Masai Ujiri pursues that route or brings the band back on long-term contracts is something that I’m not sure even the beat writers who cover the team know. The local media and blogger community are pretty vocal, and I get the sense they would prefer for Ujiri to run this team back. I’m just not sure how much Ujiri cares about the public perception (yet). If he wants to rebuild, clear the cap, and flip DeRozan for draft picks on Thursday, it’ll be fun to see the media reaction and to see if the fans turn on him only months after this display of awesome-ness.

But I certainly don’t know which direction Ujiri will take these Raptors this offseason, which is basically where I was a thousand words ago. If I had to gamble on it (and what a tremendous/terrible idea that would be) I’d lean towards the semi-rebuild route, with Masai keeping flexibility and re-signing any reasonable deals. The Drakes will have only $21 million committed to four players in 2015-16 (DD, Novak, Jonas, TRoss) and the cap could rise to at least $66 million that season. If Ujiri does something crazy, that’s the summer he does it.

If he can get Kyle Lowry back on a two or three year deal for something closer to $10 million per, I think Masai would be receptive. Something tells me Lowry can do a bit better and price himself out of his range, though. Greivis won’t find starting money this offseason, as there are just too many quality point guards in this league, and could be matched at a million or two below the mid-level tier. I could see Patterson getting more offers in free agency because of his shooting ability but at similar salary levels, with maybe the mid-level exception ($5-6 million) as his ceiling. Those are both match-able offers for Ujiri, depending on the years and how that affects his future cap space.

I say Lowry leaves for more money elsewhere and Ujiri re-signs Greivis as a fallback starting-PG for $4 million or so (over two years), giving Toronto a Greivis/DeRozan/Ross/Amir/Jonas starting lineup. Fields, Hayes, and Novak are locked into the bench, with PPat and de Colo in the conversation if the price is right. That starting lineup might contend in the East and transition the Raptors into next summer, where bigger moves could be more likely. Ujiri could add some shooting or another PG in free agency or (dun, dun, dun…) Thursday’s NBA Draft.

Going into draft night, Masai has the option of adding the #20 pick to that bench and letting him develop in the same manner as Terrence Ross in 2012-13. Ross played 17 minutes per game under head coach Dwane Casey and stepped into Rudy Gay’s starting spot in his second season. Out of the players available at #20, I could see Tyler Ennis following a similar developmental path as Ross.

Ennis’s style of play and draft comparisons remind me a lot of the talk around Kendall Marshall in 2012, with a lot of loaded phrases that I’m not sure are pros or cons (like “game manager” or “steady floor leader”). Being labeled a pure point guard (another loaded phrase, I know) raises questions about his jump shot and offensive aggressiveness, he shot 41.1% from the field at Syracuse (35.3% on 2.5 3’s per game), but I think he’ll be a solid scorer.

He averaged over 20 points per game at the U19 World Championships last summer but only 12.9 per game in his sole season at Syracuse, instead preferring to set up his teammates (5.5 assists per game, 1.7 turnovers). His jump shot is okay, despite the shaky percentages, with pretty good form in keeping the ball in front of him and a deep-knee bend that he’ll need to quicken to get off the NBA 3. He’ll pull-up from mid-range with ease and he shows some (Professor) Andre Miller-esque instincts when he gets into the free throw line area.

This could veer into intangibles territory but I think the biggest strength of Tyler Ennis and the potential in his offensive game depends on his high basketball IQ. For a young player he’s beyond steady in almost any situation and started early for head coach Jim Boeheim, replacing Michael Carter-Williams at point. By mid-season he was already stepping into leadership roles (at least on the court) by taking big shots and running the offense and getting good shots for his teammates. Ennis’s natural instincts are to pass the ball but he’s usually aware of the situation enough to know when the defenses are playing his passes and when to ramp-up his aggressiveness.

He’s not yet a good spot-up shooter, scoring just over a point per possession in those situations, and took the 4th-fewest spot-up attempts in the draft class. Ennis is better at the pull-up variety of jump shot, scoring 0.87 points per dribble jumper. His overall possessions used, points per possession, and turnover numbers are among the lowest in this class, as are his numbers working in isolations. He might be the best pick-and-roll PG or player in this draft, with over 30% of his possessions at Syracuse coming from the P-n-R. Once he gets space and separation from his defender he can make almost any pass, get into the paint, or pull-up with the jumper. The isolation issues reflect the real concerns with Ennis, though, and that’s the lack of athleticism.

Tyler Ennis has great measurables for a 19-year old PG, with a 6’7.25” wingspan and 36” vertical jump. He’s definitely going to need to add strength to his 182 lb. frame, as he took a LOT of floaters (20.5% of his total shot attempts!) in that in-between spot in the paint, and couldn’t quite get deep enough into the rim area. That same DraftExpress piece has Ennis as the 4th-worst finisher at the rim in this draft class and he really lacks the strength to finish. It’s Ennis’s average quickness and burst-speed that causes him to be such a poor scorer in isolation and on-ball defender.

He has a strong handle but rarely beats his man one-on-one cleanly and really can’t separate when he gets to the basket, leading to the abundance of floaters. When watching video and highlights, you don’t necessarily notice his subtle jabs and pushes with his off-arm but once you pick it up it’ll bug you every time. I can’t see NBA referees letting him get away with that move too often. He’s not an above-the-rim player at all and doesn’t show flashes of elite athleticism. That can be overcome in college but it really makes me question his upside in the NBA.

It’s that overall lack of athleticism and quickness that bring back the comparisons to Kendall Marshall. Reading his DraftExpress profile and comparing it to Ennis is… scary? Definitely redundant. I was ready to make another Ennis comparison to Professor Andre Miller instead, and argue that if he could only put on more muscle and develop that FT-line extended post-up game he could get by on being a slower, ground-based point guard. Then I saw the same Andre Miller-comparison with Kendall Marshall. It took Kendall a trade, a cut, and an opportunity with an offensive-minded head coach to catch on in the league. Does Tyler Ennis need the same type of system?

I’m not sure Tyler Ennis can be a starting point guard in the NBA until he develops that quickness and burst to separate from defenders without using that damn push-off move. Well, if that’s something that even can be developed. He can absolutely run a bench unit, though, with his mastery of the pick-and-roll game alone. Unlike Elfrid Payton, he can’t blow by defenders without a screen (and even then…) and get into the paint to draw defenders and kick to shooters. Ennis, again, relies on his basketball IQ to navigate the high-pick and drop-down to the roll-man or skip passes to shooters on the wing.

What also separates him from Kendall Marshall (or a guy who didn’t make it like Marcus Williams) is his willingness to take the big shots for Syracuse this season. Even as a freshman who wasn’t the strongest jump shooter or isolation player, he earned the trust of his teammates and Boeheim in big moments. Especially impressive after the big shots and game-winners is the cool demeanor that he exudes, and he plays with a steadiness and offensive awareness that’s almost CP3-esque. I get the sense he knows when to attack and has the ability to hit the shots he needs to in order to free-up his passing lanes. He’s a plus-passer (maybe a true-7 on the baseball scouting scale) but well-below average with the athleticism and it’s not surprising to see how Elfrid Payton has surpassed Ennis in the workout process. Ennis would get killed in any one-on-one workout; he needs teammates to create for and an offense to run.

The Toronto Raptors carried three PG’s going into the playoffs this season and all three are free agents. I can see the Raps bringing one or two back but Lowry might be out of their price range and they could look to a long-term solution at the position. Tyler Ennis is a safe player with pretty defined skills and weaknesses, and should be a good teammate who commands respect in the locker room. He could be a solid back-up PG with Toronto’s second-unit from the first day of training camp and will rack up plenty of assists (especially while running the high P-n-R), and maybe a few clutch buckets.

What I Think They’ll Do:

I spoke earlier about the Toronto media and Masai Ujiri’s disinterest in the PR aspect of the gig but the Kyle Lowry situation should be interesting. Tyler Ennis is a local kid who grew up in Ontario and has already been a big part of the Canadian national team in the FIBA tournaments (Under-18 in 2012 and Under-19 teams in 2013). We’ll hear more about that Canadian program in the next few offseasons with a loaded generation of NBA talent that includes Ennis, Andrew Wiggins, Tristan Thompson, and Anthony Bennett, among others. It’s too bad they couldn’t field a competitive-enough team at the pro level last year to qualify for this summer’s FIBA World Cup, but that’s a post for another day.

While I don’t think Ujiri particularly cares about media coverage or fan perception, drafting the Canadian Ennis is a nice additional boost that might endear him some fan support when it comes to the Lowry negotiations. Greivis Vasquez was a fan-favorite last year and started previously in his career, with a rookie Anthony Davis, and while a PG rotation of Greivis/Ennis (and de Colo?) might be the league’s worst, it might get the Raps by in the East until next summer when the cap’s a little clearer and Masai starts making moves.

Rodney Hood should get a long look here, as well. I could’ve easily made the Terrence Ross-comparisons with Hood, who’s an excellent catch-and-shoot player and could add that particular skill to this Raptors roster. He’s almost a full-year older than Ennis but might be the better long-term prospect and would be a fine selection here. I shaded more towards the need for a point guard and probably the lazier pick with the local ties. A draft-and-stash option is also in-play but Walter Tavares would be a reach here.

An athlete like K.J. McDaniels or Jerami Grant (Ennis’s teammate) could also be an option, as Toronto needs a defensive-wing. It’s pretty amazing they were the 10th-ranked defense while starting DeRozan and Gay/Ross, and it’d be fun to see what Dwane Casey could do with an actual-wing defender who can guard on-ball.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

Have I mentioned Masai Ujiri is unpredictable? I think in each of my first five posts I brought up a DeMar DeRozan and #20 trade as a possibility and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. DeRozan might be more valuable to Toronto than he might necessarily be to other teams and could be a tough trade to pull off. However, if anyone can do it…

If I could pick any team to add DeRozan to, that’s realistic and can hang in trade talks, it’d probably be the Charlotte HORNETS. The #9 and Gerald Henderson gets Toronto by at the wing position but DD does so much for that team by handling the ball and drawing FT’s that it’s so tough to get the same value back. Would Charlotte give up on Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and the #9, and take back #20 to add to a core of Kemba/DD/Gerald Henderson/Cody Zeller/Professor Al Jefferson? Get that team a legitimate SF and PF and that’s dangerous in the East.

Boston could be in play with a pick at #6 and young cap-filler for DeRozan, putting a Rondo/DD/Jeff Green team together that could be nice on the fast-break. Not too likely though.