#12 - Orlando Magic

Michigan Star-Telegram

What I’d Do:

Adreian Payne – Michigan State

6’10” (7’4” wingspan), 239 lbs., 02/18/1991 (23 years old)

With the #4 pick in this exercise I addressed Orlando’s long-term need at point guard with Dante Exum. As a scorer and lead ball-handler, he allows Victor Oladipo to move over to the shooting guard position and gives Orlando the ability to trade Arron Afflalo for other roster needs.

The Magic would have a core of Exum, Oladipo, and probably Nikola Vucevic (extension coming), with a bunch of average, if inconsistent, wing and big man-options. Tobias Harris (#19 in 2011), Moe Harkless (#15 in 2012), and Andrew Nicholson (#19 in 2012) are all former first-round picks at the small forward and power forward positions who could play themselves into that long-term core with a consistent season but are ultimately replaceable as they get closer to free agency.

Orlando could probably move Afflalo to a team in the mid-to-late first-round that needs help at the two-guard (Chicago with picks at #16 and #19, Charlotte at #24, etc.) and add another rotation player to a rebuilding team that’s still stacking assets. Or they move Afflalo and their own pick at #12 for another building block at a position of need higher in the draft.

All four teams in the #6-9 pick range have been rumored to be interested in moving their picks for franchise-altering players in this draft. Arron Afflalo is not a franchise-alter-er, however solid he is on both ends of the court. He’s increased his scoring averages in each of his seven years in the league, plays solidly above-average defense from the wing, and is a career 39% 3-point shooter who will turn 29 in October. He has one year left at $7.5 million with a player option for the same amount in 2015-16.

Charlotte would make a lot of sense as a team that could use a starter who can shoot, but don’t seem willing to trade the #9 pick straight-up for Afflalo and Orlando would still be out of the power forward-range at #9. Sacramento also could use Afflalo’s particular talents but aren’t close enough to the playoffs to sacrifice the cost-control of the #8 pick for (maybe) two years of Afflalo. Boston still has their eyes on the franchise-alter-ers and might prefer to re-sign Avery Bradley and keep their pick over upgrading to Afflalo. But the Lakers, with the #7 pick and a Kobe-mandated desire to contend next season, need talent and match-up well in a #7 for Afflalo and #12 trade.

Los Angeles currently has three players signed to guaranteed contracts next season at a combined $36 million in Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, and Robert Sacre. The general consensus is that they need to rebuild after bottoming out without Dwight Howard last season and losing Nash and Kobe to injuries, but the Los Angeles Lakers don’t rebuild so much as just reload into their next championship era.

Rebuilding is kind of tough without assets. Lost amidst the Dwight drama was how invested the Lakers were into the Nash/Kobe/Pau/Dwight super-team they constructed in 2012. The Lakers didn’t surrender much in the way of talent in acquiring Dwight but still owe Orlando a 2017 top-five protected first-round pick. Completing the sign-and-trade for Nash was the first domino that helped convince Dwight to accept the trade and will cost the Lakers a 2015 first-rounder (top-five protected in 2015, top-three protected in ’17, unprotected in ’18) to Phoenix. Pau Gasol’s cap hold will restrict the Lakers’ activity in free agency this summer until they renounce his rights or re-sign him to a lower deal. And Kobe Bryant’s extension was derided at the time as a ludicrous move for a rebuilding team. The Lakers can’t really rebuild without future firsts, though, and will attempt to reload in 2015 or ’16 through free agency.

The Los Angeles market has always appealed to free agents and disgruntled stars throughout the history of the NBA. Wilt Chamberlain was the first star player to receive criticism for forming a “Big 3” back in the 1968 season and was the first in a list of Hall of Fame big men to force a trade to the Lakers. Any long-term strategy from general manager Mitch Kupchak as he transitions into an eventual post-Kobe existence must involve keeping a max salary slot open for any upcoming star free agents or stacking tradable assets to use in trading for a disgruntled star. Their one chance to land a franchise-altering draft pick was really in this draft, fresh off the worst-record in their Los Angeles-history and without first rounders in ’15 and ’17, but the lottery gods weren’t kind.

Chris did a great job of making the case for Noah Vonleh at #7 in his Lakers piece and I particularly agree with his “Vonleh is not a building block” reasoning from LA’s perspective. As he says, the Lakers don’t have the patience for a long rebuild and “are looking to draft an asset”. Orlando can’t rely on free agency in nearly the same sense as the Lakers and has the patience to wait on Vonleh. The Lakers could add Arron Afflalo as a contributor this season and draft their stretch big in Adreian Payne at #12.

Afflalo could be one of Kobe Bryant’s favorite teammates and do a lot of things young Trevor Ariza did in the 2009 Finals run. He plays defense, rebounds, scores, shoots from 3, and adds toughness from the off-guard position, and is still young enough to handle the defensive wing assignments Kobe can’t. He’s a California-native who attended Compton Centennial High School and UCLA, and his shorter contract doesn’t damage the Lakers’ long-term situation. He won’t propel the Lakers to the playoffs single-handedly but he’s a very good role player for a team that needs bodies.

Adreian Payne could be a bit of a reach at #12, as I’ve only seen him recently rise as high as #13 in Chad Ford reports, but the high floor and relative safeness of his game should appeal to this Lakers franchise. As a 23-year old college senior, Payne lacks the upside of fellow stretch-4, Vonleh, but his work ethic and development at the college level is also appealing.

Reading old scouting reports from his high school and early-college days are fascinating. He gained 30 lbs. between HS and sophomore year at Michigan State and “his offensive contributions come predominantly within five feet of the basket” at the time. Flashing a 10 to 15 foot jumper as a sophomore was a revelation, according to his DraftExpress profile, but he kept working on it to eventually shoot 42% from 3 on 3.4 attempts per game as a senior. He’s managed to keep his athletic tendencies as he’s rounded out his offensive game, and there’s something particularly impressive about seeing a 240 lb. big throw down power dunks with either hand. He’s a high character guy who’s overcome some tough family issues growing up to improve his game every year under coach Tom Izzo.

Payne might be a top-five pick if he had developed his jumper in his junior or sophomore seasons. He’ll be a better player than Vonleh for the next year or two but he’s five years older (!). I have my questions about Vonleh reaching his potential but that’s a considerable gap in development time. That DraftExpress profile mentions his need to add lower body strength at a certain point to survive the grueling NBA season and his ball-watching instincts will need to be rectified by *Fill-In Lakers Head Coach*. Some teams might look at his ADHD diagnosis and defensive lapses as a negative while others as more diversity he’s had to work to overcome. Payne has already been developing at the collegiate level and his immediacy is appealing to a team that needs multiple starters.

Maybe the Lakers have the patience to develop Vonleh and see him as a long-term piece, like Andrew Bynum in the 2005 Draft. He could start right away and learn defensive rotations on the job. This Lakers team, with Kobe Bryant at this point in his career, could be an ugly situation for a rookie, though, especially one that could struggle early. I think the Lakers look to add a solid veteran like Afflalo and then take the more NBA-ready Adreian Payne at #12, then go to work in free agency in filling out the rest of this roster. They could target a big move like Chris Bosh or max out Eric Bledsoe, or roll the cap space over to the Kevin Love/LaMarcus Aldridge free agency summer in 2015. Adding two potential starting players in Payne and Afflalo with one draft pick would be a nice move for this Lakers franchise.

From Orlando’s perspective, they come out of the draft with a franchise point guard and power forward to add to their young team. Unless Julius Randle’s foot issue causes him to fall in the first round, they’re not really in range of the top tier of bigs, unless they like Adreian Payne as much as I do. I mentioned that they could trade Afflalo alone for a first round pick but I’d rather see them move an asset for a foundational piece than add another role player.

What I Think They’ll Do:

My trade proposal makes way too much sense. It addresses team needs on both sides and helps two teams that could be in weird spots at their respective picks. Chris and I already made separate cases as to why Vonleh could be just a trade asset to the Lakers, whereas Orlando has the time to wait and develop him. Orlando wouldn’t need Payne’s readiness and he would be quite a reach at #7 to the Lakers.

My Dante Exum pick earlier helps screw things up, giving Orlando an extra guard and ruling out an Elfrid Payton pick here. Doug McDermott could get lost in the morass of combo forwards already on this Magic roster and his upside doesn’t really fit with Orlando’s timetable. James Young, T.J. Warren, or Rodney Hood could contribute at the 3 and score alongside Exum and Oladipo, turning Orlando from a defensive-oriented team to an offensive team almost overnight. I actually like James Young as a fallback option to my trade, as he could spread the floor but also play some shooting guard in tall lineups with ‘Dipo or Exum at point. Orlando has a really bright future and are a good draft away from being a hipster-favorite in NBA 2k15.

Crazy Draft Day Trade:

Umm, have you not been listening to what I’ve been saying?

Oh you said “crazy”? You’re right, my trade is way too logical. Okay give me a minute here.

How about #12 and Afflalo for DeMar DeRozan? AA’s player option might bite into Toronto’s future plans but James Young could be a long-term replacement at the wing. I’m not sure why Orlando wants DeRozan at this point in their franchise’s rebuild but could start DeRozan at SF if Exum turns out to be more advanced than they think.

Maybe Orlando GM Rob Hennigan wants to move the pick to get a look at a 2015 free agent like Enes Kanter or Brandon Knight, then re-signs them next summer. Or someone like Randle or Nik Stauskas slips and a team like Chicago will trade both picks for #12. Orlando has plenty of options but trading Afflalo and adding Dante Exum and Noah Vonleh would be quite the draft haul.

UPDATE: As with almost any team in the top few spots in this draft, the Orlando Magic should be reeling after the Joel Embiid injury news. They were always out of contention for Embiid at #4 and could have safely slotted in one of the Wiggins/Jabari/Exum tier to start for them over the next five years or so. Now there’s a good chance Exum goes either to Milwaukee or Philadelphia and Orlando has to seriously consider an injured Embiid. They’ll have to consult with their medical team to determine the risk/reward of that scenario but I think Orlando is a fairly conservative organization and would prefer to gain an impact player with this pick, at the expense of the possible upside. If Exum goes second or third they will look hard at Noah Vonleh or Marcus Smart here, as those are two players who fill long-term positions of need. I’m going strictly off the Chad Ford rumors of the long-standing interest but if Exum is gone I think the Magic prefer Smart and hope Vonleh (or Randle?) is still there at #7 to make this trade.