Saturday, June 21, 2014

#10 - Philadelphia 76ers

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What I'd Do:

Dario Saric – Croatia
6’10” (6’10” wingspan), 223 lbs., 04/08/1994 (20 years old)

Chris explained earlier why Philadelphia is in a great position in this draft and in their franchise’s future. General manager Sam Hinkie has thoroughly rebuilt the roster by clearing talent and acquiring draft picks, including this pick and New Orleans’s first rounder in 2013 (Nerlens Noel) for then-All Star point guard, Jrue Holliday. He drafted Jrue’s replacement in Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams at #11 last year and has Noel fresh after sitting out the entire season coming off of knee surgery. Despite an early-season scare of competence his team went on a historic run of 26-straight losses and moved whatever veterans he could at the trade deadline, resulting in the #3 pick that Chris already broke down. Hinkie has already shown to be among the more patient and shrewd GM’s around and is entering Year 2 of his Philadelphia 76ers rebuild.


One move a patient GM wouldn’t make is dealing a top-14 protected draft pick for the 27th pick in the 2012 Draft (Arnett Moultrie), like Hinkie’s predecessor, Tony DiLeo. The pick has been owned by the Miami Heat until last year’s Joel Anthony trade with Boston, and has rolled over the last two seasons as Philly hasn’t made the playoffs. If they can avoid the postseason again in 2014-15 and finish with a top-14 draft pick, it turns into consecutive second-rounders in 2015 and 2016.

Philadelphia particularly can’t afford to lose a first round pick at this point in their rebuild. Michael Carter-Williams played a lot of blowout losses without any NBA-quality teammates other than poor Thaddeus Young, who should probably be sainted for surviving last season, and developed a lot of bad habits on his way to the ROY award, shooting 40.5% from the field and 26.5% on three 3-point attempts per game.

First-year head coach Brett Brown installed a quicker, offensive-oriented system that was a swift adjustment from the Doug Collins years. The team increased pace by 8 possessions per game in 2014 and shot five more 3-pointers but fell four spots to 30th in Offensive Rating. The defense finished 26th, they won 19 games and gave minutes to 23 total players. Brown’s experiences as Director of Player Personnel with the Spurs and as an assistant under Gregg Popovich should help improve the offense eventually, when he’s able to coach some actual NBA talent.

He’ll have a solid core of Carter-Williams, Nerlens Noel and (theoretically) Andrew Wiggins to build around. Noel and Wiggins profile to be plus-defenders early in their NBA careers and MCW has the long arms and lateral quickness to be good with some effort. He’ll be the better offensive player of the three and might not get much help from Wiggins at that end next season but they’ll be deadly in transition and should be free to gamble to force turnovers. Wiggins’s 3-point stroke is something he’ll have to work on as a professional and Brown will stress the shot. Noel just needs to play at this point and start to see the complexity and speed of other NBA offenses, and could contribute early as a weak-side shot-blocker and pick-and-roll finisher. Thaddeus Young has reportedly been shopped along with this pick to move up further in the lottery but for some reason simply can’t find a team willing to save him from the losing. More on Thaddeus in the trade section.

Sam Hinkie has been quite patient in building the roster and stacking assets, traits he himself exhibited while serving as Vice President of the Houston Rockets. He sacrificed a full season last year in jump-starting the rebuild by trading Jrue Holliday and eventually Spencer Hawes and Evan Turner, and I get the sense next season could be similar. There’s almost no chance Boston sees a first round pick from their division-rival. Hinkie goes into this second draft pick with a clear best player available philosophy and will continue to be patient, this time in selecting Dario Saric at #10.

Jonathan Givony, on Paul Flannery’s Drive & Kick Podcast, dropped some then-news on Dario Saric and his confusing draft situation. He’s staying in this draft but the reports are conflicting on where he’s playing next season. Givony posited that if he’s drafted in a major market like Los Angeles or Boston he’ll come over right away, but otherwise he might be more-inclined to stay with Cibona in the Croatian League for another season or two. It’s uncertain if the major market qualifier counts Philadelphia or if he’s reticent with the rebuilding and will wait it out but the 76ers aren’t trying to be too good next year and already added Andrew Wiggins, and could afford to wait on Dario.

Dario Saric could be a top-five talent in this draft. Givony compares him to an Orlando Magic-version of Hedo Turkoglu, as a 6’10” point-forward with an improving jumper and adept offensive game. He’s not the most amazing athlete but can score in the post, in transition or the half-court, and uses his above-average basketball IQ to overcome his athletic and defensive deficiencies.  He can play with the ball in his hands but will struggle as a strictly catch-and-shoot player, and the Draft Express profile is especially worth reading for his body language concerns. His short wingspan and lack of quickness will limit his defensive potential but he has shown good hustle and effort on that end at least.

He’s probably a power forward at the pro level, whenever he does come over for Philly, due to the physical issues but his offensive versatility will be a huge asset at the position. The ability to handle pick-and-rolls with Nerlens Noel and collapse the defense to kick to Andrew Wiggins or MCW on the wing will be a nice option for Brett Brown to eventually utilize. Wiggins and Noel could help cover up some of Dario’s defensive shortcomings on the wing or in the paint, and he should be able to rebound (and box-out?!) at the next level. He was third in usage rate as a power forward in the Croatian League with a 58% True Shooting Percentage and helped the Croatian national team qualify for the World Cup tournament later this summer.

Sam Hinkie still has a bunch of second-round picks to use over the next two drafts to help fill out the roster, and the team should again be in the position to give minutes to borderline NBA talent in 2014-15. Even without the outstanding first round pick influencing any potential roster decisions, Hinkie would have to be quite active in free agency and hit on all five second round picks (!) to consider the playoffs, even in the East. Almost every move he’s made in his year-plus as GM has stressed patience and the long-term outlook over wins in the present. He cleared the books last year and can begin assembling talent this year. Adding a franchise player in Andrew Wiggins at #3 is a nice start and allows him the option to stash Dario Saric for a season. They could easily be in position to add another top-five talent next year, with the option to add Saric to the roster as the 20-year old develops in Croatia. In five years the Philadelphia 76ers could be the clear winners of this draft.


What They Will Do:

Philadelphia is in no rush to contend for a playoff spot in 2014-15 and surrender a first to Boston next summer. Even if Sam Hinkie’s job depended on it, which it most certainly does not, it would be interesting to see if he could turn an MCW/Wiggins/Noel core and $30+ million in cap space into a playoff team. In that scenario he could target a safer player and sure-contributor at #10, and add a Gary Harris or Adreian Payne or T.J. Warren to that young core. Spend the cap space on a shooter (Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony) and a bench and that’s a playoff team. That seems to go against Philadelphia’s philosophy this early into their rebuild. They’re building for the long-term and after adding Andrew Wiggins at #3, will take the risk and wait on the unique offensive upside of Dario Saric at #10.


Crazy Trade Options:

I have Orlando using Arron Afflalo and #12 to trade with the Lakers up to #7 but could easily see the 76ers make a similar trade with LA using Thaddeus Young. He’s still a young-enough forward who excels in the transition game and could help a Lakers team that needs to surround Kobe with as much talent as possible. The ‘6ers would presumably target a power forward (Noah Vonleh in our scenario) at #7 to pair with Nerlens Noel in the front-court or maybe Marcus Smart to play with MCW and Wiggins.

For a team in the talent-assembly phase of their rebuild I still can’t see them keeping five second-round picks, no matter how deep this draft is. Dario Saric probably gets stashed for a season or two in Croatia along with one or two of these second-round picks. They could flip two for more seconds in the future and still use picks to add depth.

Sam Hinkie has a track-record of patience but has shown early indications that no player is untouchable on the roster. Jrue was moved as a 23-year old coming off an All-Star campaign and Carter-Williams’s name has come up randomly in rumors. It wouldn’t go over well in Philadelphia or the national NBA media but Hinkie could easily flip MCW for a top-10 pick in this draft and push the rebuild back even farther. The benefit to being so young and so talent-barren is that anything can and probably will happen on their way out of the rebuild.

UPDATE: After Bloody Thursday (working title) and the horrible Joel Embiid news, the whole “Philadelphia is in the best position in this draft” narrative might not be as viable. Andrew Wiggins is no longer a lock at #3 and Sam Hinkie’s best-case scenario might require more calorie burning. I was really excited for a MCW/Wiggins/Dario/Noel core too, damn…

It’s no surprise that the next day, in the fall-out from the Embiid news and before he was even prepped for surgery, rumors were circulating centering around Philly and the Lakers. This time, Carter-Williams is theoretically added into the trade with Thaddeus for the #7 and Steve Nash. The trade seems to still be making the rounds as late as Saturday afternoon but another, even more ridiculous, Lakers-themed trade has been floating around in a three-way deal with Golden State for Kevin Love, with the Lakers sending the #7 to help the Warriors get Love and returning Klay Thompson. The consecutive-day leaking of these trade rumors leads me to believe that the Lakers PR guys or their “unnamed sources” are working overtime this weekend.

The MCW/Young for Nash/#7 trade would fit into Philly’s patient approach and clear the decks for another top-3 finish in next years lottery. Nash would presumably be bought out of the last year of his deal or kept around to mentor a point guard that Philly drafts at #3, #7, or #10 (Exum, Smart, Elfrid Payton). I mentioned above that MCW could be had for a top-10 pick and it makes sense in that regard but I’m dubious Hinkie trades him within a year of drafting him (although the “Hot Sports Tanking Takes” would be amazing).

The Embiid surgery changes everything at the top of the draft but I feel comfortable with Dario Saric at #10. There’s a chance Hinkie can still end up with Wiggins at #3, if Cleveland decides on Jabari and Milwaukee takes their point guard in Exum, and then everything we’ve written still works. There could even be a chance he takes Embiid, puts him on the Noel-rehab approach, and still takes Saric at #10 and stashes him for a season or two. Hinkie has options and time on his side.

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