Happy Opening Day!

Happy Opening Day!

Every year it seems that today comes longer to hoop heads, that the wait is unusually more agonizing and the offseason more arduous than the one preceding it. A quick mathematical investigation on my part has shown that this NBA summer has been, in fact, as consistently long as in previous years. If anything, that amazing Spurs/Heat Finals going seven games actually afforded us a few extra days of sweet, sweet basketball, compared to the five game LeBron/Durant Showdown of 2012. The offseason has not lacked for entertainment or drama either, as fans in Houston/Los Angeles and Brooklyn/Boston would, respectively, probably characterize it. And while some franchises might enter hibernation earlier this winter, there are glimmers of hope and change in other corners of the NBA map.

This season is going to be spectacular, by all accounts. As is true in every other of the NBA’s near-70 year existence, not every team has a realistic shot at a championship. 2013-14 might even feature a record run of rebuilding and futility from franchises, even as the first (honest, if not anonymous) general manager details why this might already be a lost season and it’s not even Halloween yet. But, for the first time in my 15+ years as an NBA fan, you can make a case that every one of the 30 organizations at least has a plan in place.

Think about that for a second, and think of how rare that premise has been in recent seasons. Even Donald Sterling can’t screw his own organization up anymore! We’re going to see plenty of bad teams this year and many blowout losses, but even the stingiest of rosters is assembled with a clear goal in mind that makes sense: this upcoming draft is going to be really good and rookie contracts are better values than free agent contracts.

For the most part we’re not seeing traditionally bad organizations target mediocrity or drift aimlessly through another NBA season. With the settled situation in Sacramento, another lottery season might be realistic, but stability and new ownership has sparked optimism, and a big trade wouldn’t surprise anyone. Phoenix and Philadelphia might be openly bereft of talent (and are probably the odds-on favorites to have supplied that previous passage to Mr. Goodman) but with draft picks and playing time for young prospects, you can’t say they’re quote-unquote “tanking” (UGH) or being cheap or disingenuous to their fanbases.

Boston is in the nascent stages of their long-term rebuild, and a franchise-altering lottery pick in 2014 would be a nice block to build upon. Charlotte has been bad while trying to be good, and an Al Jefferson signing, plus Kemba/Gerald/MKG, helps make them watchable while still staying semi-flexible in their search for a franchise guy. While they’re not the laughing stock of the league this season after two historically inept campaigns, they should still be in lottery contention in the #RigginforWiggins or #TankSafariforJabari efforts. Orlando is firmly in year two of their post-Dwight existence, with a solid collection of assets and a coach that has already installed a culture. Utah’s situation is slightly different, in that they’ve developed their young core alongside positive veterans in Jeff, Milsap and (gulp) Jamaal Tinsley, and while an overachieve to a playoff spot wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, an impact lottery pick (from the wing/guard spot?) would bolster a more realistic 2015 playoff push.

It’s probably a good thing that the NBA mediocrity, the 7-10 seeds in each conference, are mostly inhabited by younger teams who hope that an entrance into the playoffs portends bigger things to their futures. Minnesota, Denver, Portland, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Toronto, Washington and the Pelicans (!) all feature a young core with legitimate playoff aspirations, where even a short series pounding against a Miami, Chicago, Indiana, San Antonio, or Oklahoma City would go well towards seasoning that core or persuading bitter franchise guys to stick around.

It’s the older teams settling in at that .500 level that are the most frustrating franchises this season. While Mark Cuban asserts that three year deals are the new market inefficiency, it’s still an older team with questionable personnel fits that will struggle to defend. The Lakers might be better served to sit the season out, settle their chemistry issues and develop a long-term plan, especially with so many upcoming marquee free agents with LA ties. Instead they’re pulling a 2012 Cuban and spending money on one-year deals, hoping that fitting players into a coaching scheme will get them to the playoffs. But then what?

The legitimate playoff teams stay scheming to claim the throne. We’ll see if the Atlanta’s and Knicks’s of the league can compete while transitioning their teams to what could be a different look next season. Brooklyn and Golden State found that they enjoyed their playoff debuts last year and made commitments to hopefully surpass their successes of a season ago. Organizations like the Heat, Spurs, Bulls, Pacers, Grizzlies and Thunder preferred to rely on internal improvements to augment their rosters. They might enter the season slept on but are all veteran teams with confidence and an identity.

The most interesting teams might be the ones on the title periphery, who were mere bounces or breaks away from taking Miami or San Antonio’s spots in 2013. An offseason of confidence could do wonders to the next teams up, who made mostly minor alterations: a beefed up bench or an extra shooter to space the floor or someone to defend the LeBrons or Tony Parkers that they will have to vanquish on their journey to NBA immortality.

And the kings stay the kings. Once they sublimated their egos enough to embrace their revolution on the game, the only thing that can beat the Heat might truly be free agency. Injuries to Dwyane and Bosh weren’t enough to knock them off. Boxing matches with the Pacers and Bulls, and burying their Boston rivals once and for all, couldn’t do it either, it only weakened them enough to enable their Western foes to get close. But when backed against the wall, a spot they’ve been in more times than any other recent dynasty since the Rockets of the mid-90’s, they’ve regrouped, summoned their resolve and unleashed historical performances on the macro and micro levels (see video below ). As a dynasty, they’ve raised the games of everyone around them, bringing out the best in their adversaries and creating history, while ushering in perhaps an evolution to a style of play that for 40 years had been derided as a gimmick.

Oh yeah, and we’ve seen one of the handful of most talented athletes ever realize his potential, develop his game and basically mature while acting as the league’s most popular player and outright villain. We knocked LeBron James for not being clutch (whatever that means). Then we picked apart his lack of a post game. Finally we wondered if he could stand up, mentally, to the rigors of being the target and to dominate every night while elevating his game in the playoffs. Now we’re honestly just wondering where he’ll play next and how many potential championships that could swing.

I cannot wait for 7 o’clock.